Drought Spreads As Warm & Dry Spring Continues

9pm Sunday…

I haven’t posted for awhile, mainly because the weather pattern hasn’t changed much. This hasn’t been an especially busy time for meteorologists in the Pacific Northwest!

Don’t get me wrong, it’s been a WONDERFUL spring outdoors west of the Cascades. I can’t believe how many days I’ve been greeted by bright sunshine outside the window since early March. I’ve spent almost my entire life west of the Cascades in Oregon and Southwest Washington. And I sure don’t remember a spring like this one! Day after day of dependably dry weather for outdoor activities. Sure, some years we’ve seen very dry weather in April, or May, or parts of each month. But never continuously from March through mid-late May! We were cool in March, but then since that time temperatures have been much warmer than average. We are living through a “central/eastern Oregon spring” this year west of the Cascades. It’s real nice, but you’ve noticed a lack of trees and in general a lack of green east of the mountains right? That’s what would happen here if every spring was like this one!

WHERE WE STAND RIGHT NOW

After checking some weather stats…

  1. Portland & Astoria are experiencing the driest spring on record so far (March 1st to May 16th). Only 2.01″ at PDX in the last 2.5 months! Rainwise, March was like a typical June, and both April+ May have been drier than a typical July! You see the result…grasses already are drying as if it’s late June or early July. The ground is hard and dry as if we’re in early-mid summer. Not good. Pendleton is 2nd driest, and Salem is seeing the driest in 82 years (1939). Portland hit 83 today, the 8th time this season.

2. Snowpack has melted much quicker than normal since April 1st. What WAS a great snowpack, well above average in northern Oregon, is now well below what we would typically see in mid-May. Or, in many spots it’s gone. Take a look at the Mt. Hood Test Site. Black line is this year, representing snow water equivalent. Basically how many inches of water are contained in the snowpack at 5,400′ near the bottom of Pucci Lift at Timberline. GREEN is an average year. The “X” in late April signifies the average “peak snowpack” date and number. In an average year, the snowpack at this location peaks out in late April, then melts out totally by July 1st. But this year saw an above average snowpack. It peaked early, but has been melting much more rapidly than normal. At this rate it’ll be gone at least three weeks early.

3. Many Willamette Project reservoirs (Detroit, Green Peter, Lookout Point, etc…) will not fill this year. A few have even begun to drop already. Detroit Lake is still about 18 feet below where it should be this time of year.

4. The Klamath Project has so little water that both irrigators and fish lose this time. For the first time in 114 years, no water will be sent into the main irrigational canal this year. The AP calls it the “worst water crisis in generations” in southern Oregon. Read more here. I remember 2001 and the war over water then. Looks worse this time.

Some answers to a few questions I’ve been getting…

ARE WESTERN OREGON SPRINGS GETTTING DRIER DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE/GLOBAL WARMING?

NO – Actually spring rainfall has been very slowly rising the past 100 years. That said, it’s possible that global disruption in circulation (induced by man-made warming) can bring more extremes. Of course there is lots of debate over that. You can see in the 128 year history of Salem spring rainfall, no real obvious trend, But LOTS of ups and downs. Every year is different; we have periods of wet springs, then dry springs. This is one of those very dry years, like 1992, the first summer I was forecasting out of college.

IS THERE STILL TIME TO “CATCH UP” BEFORE SUMMER?

Technically YES, we COULD get 6″ of rain between now and the end of June. But that’s VERY unlikely. Look at the rainfall we’ve received at PDX from this point forward to the end of June over the past 10 years in the chart below. Somewhere between 2-3″ is normal for this last part of spring and early summer. If we have a June like last year (wet!), that would alleviate some short term water issues, and maybe fill more reservoirs. But July-September would still be a problem. We will need a long wet season next fall/winter. At this point the choice seems to be between “somewhat serious water issues” vs. “historic water issues”. That would be with respect to water supply, groundwater, & vegetation survival.

DOES THIS MEAN IT’LL BE A HOT SUMMER?

We don’t know. There’s no specific reason to think this coming summer will be hotter than normal, although that HAS been the trend for quite a few years. We haven’t had a “cool summer” in almost a decade. Some years we do get a soaking of rain in late August. That would be nice this year.

DOES THIS MEAN WE HAVE A TERRIBLE FIRE SEASON AHEAD?

It could be. Of course the “table is set” for a bad fire season with the early warm & very dry weather. But FAR MORE IMPORTANT is what happens weather-wise DURING fire season. I’ve seen bone-dry conditions in June, then we get occasional cool/moist periods later in July and August, leading to no significant fires.

Lightning is very important too. More lightning = more fires. Less lightning = better fire season.

WHAT’S AHEAD WEATHERWISE?

  1. There’s no sign of a significant pattern change (soaking widespread rains) in the next 10 days. That puts us into the last week of May
  2. But we WILL see some rain in these next 10 days, just not enough to alleviate drought/water concerns.
  3. Temperatures will be milder again (closer to normal) all this work week and into next weekend. There’s no sign of a heatwave. That is one thing we’ve avoided this spring, no extended periods of record breaking warm/hot temps.

A cold upper-level trough moves overhead Tuesday/Wednesday this week

Then by the weekend it’s over Idaho, bringing beneficial showers to eastern Oregon and that state. But that doesn’t leave much rain west of the Cascades.

By the middle of next week (10 days away), the troughing is much weaker and we should be mainly or all dry.

How much rain? All models agree we don’t get a big soaking from those cool showers this week. GFS here shows only 1/4 to 1/2″ at best. That’ll keep fire danger low, but barely penetrate into the top of our soil.

15 day forecast from ECMWF ensembles show the drought conditions continuing. An inch or less the rest of the month west of the Cascades.

I am more concerned now compared to 3 weeks ago when I said it wasn’t time to panic…yet. Hopefully a pattern change shows up at the end of the month or early June.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

91 Responses to Drought Spreads As Warm & Dry Spring Continues

  1. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Thursday is looking like mainly a Washington event now. So, PDX will still likely not have a day with more than .25” of rain since Valentine’s Day. Unbelievable.

    Yes I know that a lot of you scored the last couple of days. But, it doesn’t matter how much rain you got, your grandma got, or your mailman got… PDX is the official station and what our climatology is based off of.

    • Zach says:

      I am seeing 0.22″ at that gauge yesterday? Honestly its just nonsense to base the precip off of that gauge alone because there are ones nearby that saw 1/2″+

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        It’s the official gauge, my friend. Dry or wet. Warm or cold. Has been for 81 years.

    • Roland Derksen says:

      It’ll be a BC event as well- I expect at least an inch here. It’ll be good for the trees and other plants. Yesterday’s drizzle was nice- but it only amounted to 0.28 inches locally.

    • tim says:

      This spring is very similar to 2015 dryer then normal and no heat wave until June like we’re possibly facing soon I’m not saying it will be another 2015 but the ducks are lining up.

  2. Zach says:

    It is wet out here in Gresham. I thought this system was going to end up being a dud, but glad I am proved wrong.

    • Andy says:

      Same here in Albany… glad to see heavier rain this morning for my garden and grass.

  3. Anonymous says:

    It seems like we’re getting more rain today than we did yesterday despite what the forecast called for. It’s either been steadily raining or pouring for most of the day here (about 10 miles SW of Portland)

  4. W7ENK says:

    Fairly vigorous showers around this morning, wouldn’t be surprised if some of these produce a little thunder later…

    Almost 2/3 inch (0.58″) of rain in a little over 24 hours here in Milwaukie. I’m guessing Lake O only got about 1/10th of that?

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      I’m at .51” between yesterday and today. Did pretty well yesterday, but really missed out today. West Linn, OC, parts of Milwaukie, and many other areas scored big with the heavy showers a couple of hours ago.

      • Anonymous says:

        I live in LO too and this area of it got a ton of rain today. Which general area are you located if you don’t mind me asking?

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          Rosewood/Rivergrove area. North of Childs. East of Pikington. West of Bryant. Pretty close to Lakeridge Middle School. Close to as far SW as you can get in LO.

          Everywhere N, E, or NE of me got slammed pretty good.

          Where are you located?

  5. 5OClockCharlie says:

    So much for the “soaker”. 90% or more of the rain gauges picked up less than .5 inches of rain over the last 3 days. In fact for the whole month of May, most places didn’t even hit 1in.

    We got a brief heavy rain this morning in South Metro … maybe 0.01in. Hopefully more on the way tomorrow night going into Thursday.

    Operational runs are backing off on the heatwave, but it’s hard to trust the models these days. Even the ensembles have been considerably off

    • 5OClockCharlie says:

      Of course shortly after I write this, my gutters are overflowing with rainwater 😀

  6. tim says:

    Uw 00z gfs has near 1″ for Portland and seattle typical late May soaking.

  7. tim says:

    The daily rainfall record for May 27 is .83 in seattle it’s very likely will break it.

  8. Mr T says:

    Who’s ready for forced centralized living after the bad fires this year that are inevitable when they finish the job?

  9. W7ENK says:

    My weekend, in just under 3 minutes…

    And, just in time for a good soaking rain!
    Could definitely use more though…

    • 5OClockCharlie says:

      Look at this millionaire over here building a garden bed with lumber!
      Us ordinary folks have to use cinder blocks these days for such ambitious projects.

      • W7ENK says:

        lol

        Yeah, that project wasn’t cheap, but being a millionaire helps…

        … I mean, it WOULD help.
        Sorry, wishful thinking there.
        😂🤣😂

        9 years ago, this exact same setup was roughly 1/4 the cost. Thankfully, I took some extra measures this time to increase the longevity of the wood.

  10. Zach says:

    It really sucks that both of the rain events this week seem to favor WA. Although that has more or less been the trend this past year.

  11. tim says:

    A nice long stretch of 80’s for the first week of June a great start to our long hot summer on the way.

  12. tim says:

    Gem, Euro, and gfs are showing a wet week ahead that’s some good news for the drought at lest.

    • tim says:

      12z gfs meteostar is showing 1.36 for seattle and .97″ for Portland by next weekend.

  13. tim says:

    Well so much for a nice day it’s after 1 and still socked in, UW models did poorly with yesterdays and today’s break out.

  14. Jake in Gresham says:

    Noticed even the public, social media is taking note now and calling rain showers special and how they missed it.

    Last night I was out driving late in Happy Valley and the amount of heat left from the day was causing evaporation while I was going down the road. Almost looked like fog and was surreal to see water vapor rise by streetlight. Something you see in tropical places like Hawaii.

    Unless we get solid heavy rain this moisture isn’t going to penetrate much into the top soil as Mark has stated. If anything and I’d argue warm showers are probably exasperating the melting up on Mt. Hood. If June doesn’t show reversal of current trends we are in trouble. Southern Oregon will probably end up on National News.

    The only thing we can really hope for statistically is oceanic onshore flow this Summer where we start out our hot Summer day with clouds that have to burn off. The debate’ of a cool Summer after a hot / dry Spring is not supported at all this point. I feel like I live in another city or something right now in regard to rainfall amounts. I cannot recall such a warm and slow Spring. I’m going to be ready for Fall by end of June.

    • Zach says:

      Spring of 2016 was very warm. Many 80+ degree days in April, although it definitely wasn’t this dry. Also I would say what rain we have gotten this spring has typically been pretty cold? Yesterday felt like early March…

      • Zach says:

        Timberline says they have 120″ currently at the base still? That doesn’t seem bad at all for this time of year with the warmer than average weather. They must have had a nice buffer going into April.

  15. tim says:

    12z gfs is showing at lest a 1″ by the end of next week for the lowlands now.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      So, you’re saying we will end up with less than .25”? The lows on Monday and Thursday will both end up well north of where they are currently forecasted or lose most of their energy before they get here. Book it.

  16. Tanis Leach says:

    I’d say we are looking at 90+ for at least 4 days sometime in June. Frankly, I’m calling for 6-8 during the entire month (below the all time record, but 3-4x the average). I’d also say 17-21 for the summer but 0-1 after August 20th. Confidence is low on that, I’m just using the top 3 analog years from the winter (which did well, I just didn’t weigh the 2 below average water years enough, and focused on the AMO too much (granted its still a factor I need to consider)), with no adjustments based on other factors, except adjusting the number of 90 degree days up by a few.

    That being said, even with the true ensemble mean (+7 adjustment) of the Euro being 87°F on June 1st, the 10-90% temperature range is 27 degrees. That is way too high even if you adjust up to say “its going to be 100+ for days.” Yes I’m exaggerating, and its not directed at anyone here (there is someone I know that’s convinced it will be 110 before the end of the school year, and confirmed they weren’t joking).

    Lastly, the maximum of a single ensemble is 106 on June 3rd. I’m currently working on an individual project (almost done, it wasn’t a long one) that attempts to calculate the maximum potential temperature for every day in Portland without using climate models. Yes, that makes it less accurate, but I’m decent at python (computer programing language), yet not good enough to code everything in yet. As a sneak peak, 103 is above the maximum I’ve found for June 2nd, which is 102 (as of 2nd draft). Considering its only hit 100 twice (and only 100) before June 15th, plus June’s all time record is 102, so I’m confident that the 104 is too high.

    I hope I’m too high on the 90+ day predictions since I’m still uninjured, at least for now. I don’t like doing summer predictions due to the lower accuracy.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      We might hit those 4 90 degree days you are predicting in the first 4 days of the month.

  17. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Two members of the 12z Euro ensembles have us at 104 on June 2nd. 90th percentile is 97. Mean is 81. Might as well book it being in the 90s. That whole week is looking downright toasty. The 12z Euro operational brings the warmth starting next Saturday. The GFS and GEM are not on board with that. Yet. The GFS operational and ensembles get crazy warm the next week too.

    Calling it now… heatwave from Memorial Day through at least the end of the week.

    Thankfully, we have gotten a huge .06” of rain this week and are up to a whopping .13” for the month. A massive .52” since April 1st.

  18. Roland Derksen says:

    Some good sized Cb clouds with virga visible to the north of my location in Vancouver BC- could see one drift toward us this late afternoon or evening, but that’s doubtful. After that , it’s a trend back to warmer and drier conditions the next few days.

  19. Weatherdan says:

    It sure looks like a big time warm up the last week of May into early June. Mainly 80,s and low 90,s, which isn’t all that unusual for us. What does seem to be unusual is the increasing number of these warm spells the last few years. Still I much prefer these warmer Summers to the cooler and frequently wetter Summers I experienced in Salem as a child in the 50,s and 60,s. So despite the need for rain I am hoping for another sunny and warm Summer. Peace.

  20. 5OClockCharlie says:

    Nice heavy downpour in South Metro right now. This is the heaviest rain I’ve seen in months. Hopefully it’s not one of those quick 5 minute events

  21. tim says:

    12z gfs has highs in the 90s early june, well see either way looks like a pattern change to dry and hot.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      Some ensemble members of the GFS and Euro go above 100 right around the 1st of June. Of course, there is a huge amount of model spread that far out, but it is certainly trending towards very warm. We all know that when the warm and dry signal is present it will verify, but with increased strength and duration.

    • Anonymous says:

      Obsessed with hot and dry weather. Maybe move to Arizona!

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        If you’re referring to me, I hate hot and dry weather. That’s one reason I live here. At least life in Arizona is adapted to their conditions. Our natural resources cannot keep enduring never-ending warmth and dryness relative to normal.

        • Anonymous says:

          I think they were replying to Tim, who has been talking about hot and dry weather non-stop since about November.

        • Mr T says:

          Tim can’t wait till we become a parallel to hell burning everywhere. I think he was at east most of last September enjoying the smoke like a cigar addicted person.

  22. 5OClockCharlie says:

    A weird whirlpool of pressure hovering over the western states right now seems to keep bringing moisture back in over us from the east? Looks to be throwing the models and our forecasts into disarray these past few days

  23. tim says:

    Gotta love our wet climate the rains just keep coming January in May, why not.

  24. tim says:

    Good May soaking today the highest rain total I saw. 1.59 ne of Everett and many locations close to that drought is not a issue here in Wa, in ready for a dry hot summer.

  25. Andy says:

    Looks like a lot of cooler water in the Pacific this year off our coast…negative PDO currently…could possibly have a lot of week troughs come down the coast this summer… I would not loose hope yet…that were going to have a catastrophic summer just yet…

    • tim says:

      Yes, but just to the west sst are warming rapidly and above normal it won’t be long before negative goes positive like every summer the blob is back.

  26. tim says:

    AC is blasting right now upstairs?, 75 in my room after a high of 64 that high sun angle does a number who needs Arizona.

  27. tim says:

    Another wet May with some places in the W WA getting over 1″ so far this week that’s on top of the 2 to 3″ early this month in the lowlands, of course Oregon can’t seem to get a break from the lack of rain.

  28. Roland Derksen says:

    Pretty good little thunderstorm hit my location last night before 12 midnite: Didn’t last very long, but it was quite a heavy downpour with loud thunder. My total amount for the day:0.59 inches, which means i have exactly 1 inch in total for the month so far.

  29. W7ENK says:

    Rule #1: No politics.

    You’ll earn yourself a ban if you keep it up.

  30. Mountain Man says:

    Alright, so I decided to tell you all a little story about what’s really going on, positive and negative respons will be appreciated. I won’t judge any opinions.

    There are 5 actual small streams on my land, the biggest of which has had a thriving population of “endangered” cutthroat trout. These are often called native cutthroat trout. They don’t go to the ocean like a searun cutthroat trout (like a steelhead would), they live in the stream only. I know I’m weird and it’s a neard thing in the mountains to some of you, but I got into feeding them, and protecting and improving there habitat. My boys come on hikes with me, just to see how many fish will come out from their hiding spot for food. It’s actually quite fun when a dozen fish will come out from under a log or bolder to eat.

    Anyway, the stream is now, in mid May, as low as it ever got in the summer of 2019 and last summer for the first time, a 100+ foot section actually went dry before some water kinda oozed back out of the streambed. And when we got to that point last summer, at the end of August, there were not a lot of fish left coming out to eat even where there was water still. I guess these little trout’s are screwed by our slightly warmer and drier summer’s weather. But this year, it’s not even summer yet.

    Umm, it’s technically illegal, but I do have a pond with reliable water. Should I transplant some cutthroat trout into it, and put them back in the steam this fall. I mean, these fish have been here for a while, like probably thousands of years. All of a sudden there’s no water. It’s May and there’s almost no water!

    So… Let mother nature do her thing and leave it alone,,, or save a few for later when there’s water again this fall, or am I just worried about nothing and it’s going to rain a lot in June?
    What do you all think I should do?
    Thanks

    • W7ENK says:

      It’s not illegal if “a hawk or an eagle picks them out of the stream and accidentally drops them into the pond…” j/s

    • 5OClockCharlie says:

      Contact Fish and Wildlife. They might do it for you

    • Opie Dilldock says:

      I’m planning a mid-June backpack trip, so an inch or two of rain is pretty much locked in.

  31. tim says:

    Showers and t storms with strong winds moving thru now should be some good downpours tomorrow as well.

  32. boydo3 says:

    Strange how the conspiracy theory nuts like to blame Bill Gates for everything they can’t make sense of. Or just don’t understand…

  33. Gene says:

    Way to contribute intelligently to the conversation. Very mature..

  34. Jake in Gresham says:

    It is sad to say but we’ve already burned what we could burn in our area for the most part that could endanger countryside where Portland metro area people live.

    The gorge, Estacada and Damascus burned so we have that buffer now. A horrible true factoid. This current drought is something that could produce a mega-fire around Crater Lake and put Eugene at great risk. It is drier there by default, life being put at risk is an understatement there considering the resources relative to Portland to stop a big fire.

    Statistically I’m of the opinion that we’re starting to see the beginning of our environment changing. Which makes sense as we’re now in the window where that is to begin. We have 50 year window to figure out how to master technology. As the atmosphere changes so will our climate from our pollutants into it.

    Earth can easily support carbon dioxide but it cannot from us and old machine technologies. It is our right to breath in oxygen and breath out carbon dioxide. Not machines! And we’re losing that right to corporate greed.

    A few articles that will make your blood boil:

    1) Coal knew in 1966:

    2) Big Oil Is Trying to Make Climate Change Your Problem to Solve:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/big-oil-is-trying-to-make-climate-change-your-problem-to-solve-don-e2-80-99t-let-them/ar-BB1gJOJp?ocid=BingNewsSearch

    3) Study Shows Heat Could become Deadlier than Infectious Diseases:

    https://www.nationofchange.org/2020/08/05/big-oil-knew-climate-change-could-be-catastrophic-study-shows-heat-could-become-deadlier-than-infectious-diseases/

    • Anonymous says:

      Am I misunderstanding, or do you believe this drought in the west is entirely due to global warming? Are you basing this off of evidence or just intuition? Mark just mentioned in this post that there has not been a drying trend in our springs over the past century, so seems like a stretch. Especially given the western half of the US has had drought cycles for centuries.

      • Jake in Gresham says:

        I’m believe the culprit being climate change, yes.

        Reasoning being in my 10 years of weather blogging, monitoring weather, going through college and studying some of this I’ve observed our extremes become, more extreme and more extreme.

        As a child Winter being Winter and Fall being Fall. I feel like it is Fall from November to March nowadays. I don’t feel bothered about our Winter events as my father described them in past.

        Last Summer I choked on ash and dust as I tried to help evacuations in Estacada. A friend trying to help passed out. Another couldn’t breath. First the Columbia River Gorge burned; where I’ve done every trail with many I would combine together at different times of the year.

        Then almost family homes with last years fire in Estacada? It woke me up to the gradual trend I refused to want to see.

        Most humans don’t understand the writing on the wall because they live in valleys or near them in foothills – as we have for centuries. Most fly to vacation spots. Most drive home and to work, and weekend getaways. What do we really see, much less touch or smell?

        I also state this as someone from a family of immigrants where my parents came from a European country (Romania) that is exceptionally similar in weather to Oregon. Things have become more temperate there and with more extremes in between that outbalance temperate periods.

        Hike, camp, backpack in the forest, those forests are more quiet for lack of bird life, a near clean windshield for lack of insect life and old growth forest? I remember the windshield caked as a child in bug guts. Forget about it now. I can say I have observations such as this personally every time I go out there. You won’t see true wilderness unless you hike 25 miles into the woods.

        Put another way. I’ve watched our South (California) and how it has struggled with drought for along time. Fires, mudslides, I had this sensitivity to it because I have family down in L.A. I’ve played in their backyard with ash raining down. Now it happens here. Now that drought happens here. We talk about it. Summer passes. We forget and every few years it comes to bite a little harder. But because of past extremes? We’ve acclimated to a new normal.

        When is the last time you we were just bitten head to toe by mosquitoes? I’m bitten by 3 in a night and I’m shocked nowadays.

        When was the last time it was so cold you wanted to put on two Winter coasts? I think I have 2 Winter coats? I don’t know? Don’t use them much in the city.

        If the gorge rages past a week I’m shocked. I remember it shacking the house for 2 weeks as normal for 2 or 3 times in a Winter. My knuckles would become dry and bleed every Winter. Stopped about 5/6 years ago. Shocks me when it happens now.

  35. Tanis Leach says:

    As a second comment, went out to Deschutes River Canyon on Friday off of I-84, 2 things to note.

    First and not weather related, but needed for any travelers, the 70 mph speed limit is nice, but still under-posted based on the flow of traffic. There was a speed trap where the speed limit goes back down to 65 in The Dalles, just FYI for any travelers. For the record, the flow of traffic was 80 mph, and brake slamming happened once people saw the trap. Just be careful.

    Second: I shouldn’t need to drink 2.5 liters before, do a 80 minute/10 mile run, and still get symptoms of heat exhaustion during it to the point where it hurts to open my mouth due to a lack of water (yes, I was somehow dehydrated by 25 minutes in), an elevated heart rate for that pace, and an overheating body. Even in 80 degree weather, it is possible to get heat-related illnesses, especially during rigorous activity.

  36. Tanis Leach says:

    I may post this to the facebook groups later, but there now that there is more detailed specific new normals, I’d thought I’d take a look.

    While the normal has risen by about 0.5°F (normal about 0.2-0.3°F), the amount of days below freezing have risen by 2 days to 32 days per year. This makes me think that the trend is more extreme winter days, and with the more wavy jet stream, this makes sense.
    The amount of 90°F only raised by 1 day to 13 days (well, .5 to be exact, but I’m rounding). I know a lot of us (myself included) was predicting a bigger increase to 14-15 days at or above 90. It seems the amount of 80°F days have not been released yet. Plus with us being overdue for a summer below the linear or exponential trend lines, that surprises me further.
    All months are getting wetter, except the summer months, and November, restoring December as our wettest month. This is despite the dry streak we’ve been having, since its countered by the drier 80s, and a wet early decade (up to 12-13) and the 2 hyperactive years (15-16, 16-17). 5 water years above average, 5 below.

  37. Anomynous says:

    i think that tt sea from the weather forums has taken over writing most of marks blog updates the last few years

  38. tim says:

    If anything after a unsettled pattern for the next week or more we would probably go into a warmer\hotter pattern going into june not the other way around especially since we haven’t had a heatwave yet.

  39. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Thanks, Mark.

    Spoiler alert… there will be no pattern change. 2021 will be remembered as the year with the 7 month summer. 8 if we have a dry October.

    • Anonymous says:

      Lmao March was nothing like summer. Pretty cold.

      • Tanis Leach says:

        I think in it was in reference to the amount of dry days rather than temperature.

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        I am referring to the overall pattern, not temperature. I have stated this before. Obviously, we won’t average summer temps in March.

        • Garron near Hillsboro airport says:

          Less than a tenth of an inch so far for most of the Portland metro so far. Pathetic, considering what the models were foreasting less than a week ago.

          Mist of the incoming systems this spring have been dying fronts. Not a good sign.

%d bloggers like this: