Nice Independence Day Weather Ahead; But July Starts Cool

9:45pm Monday…

We had quite a stretch of warm weather last week, topping out at 93 Tuesday. As models had forecast, a cold upper-level low dropped out of Canada over the weekend. Not much rain, but highs 15-20 degrees cooler

Today was a pleasant day but the constant onshore flow kept us in the lower 70s. A weak cold front passes overhead late tonight, thickening the marine layer and producing spots of drizzle/sprinkles the first half of Tuesday. The GRAF model shows this well for the morning commute; no significant showers but anyone west of the Cascades could wake up to wet.

What’s ahead?

  1. A relatively cool start to July; if our 7 day forecast holds, it would be the coolest first week of July in 10 years!
  2. There’s no sign of a wet spell and/or any unusually wet weather. Actually little to no rain falls in the next week. Just those sprinkles or light showers tomorrow and Wednesday morning.
  3. Not a single model produces any sort of summer heat in the next 7-10 days. No need for air-conditioning!

A deep and cool upper-level low is centered over Idaho right now. That brought us cool weekend showers. Rain totals the past 24 hours in the Wallowa Mountains have been amazing as the northeast flow coming around the low has been getting “scooped up” by the north-facing slopes. Enterprise and Joseph both picked up 1-2″ rain, with 2-5″ around Wallowa Lake! Above 7,000′ or so it was snow during the night with temps at freezing.

That low moves away from us the next 5 days, but it’s replaced by strong onshore flow at the surface tomorrow through early Thursday. Lots of clouds and sprinkles/drizzle are the outcome west of the Cascades. Upper-level troughing weakens by this weekend, but it’s still centered over the Pacific Northwest by fireworks time Saturday evening. This means weak onshore flow, comfortable temps, and plenty of sunshine after brief morning clouds for Independence Day.

But by next Monday (the 6th), the trough is deepening again

GEM (Canadian) model

and it’s still there 10 days from now (Thursday the 9th)

GEM (Canadian) model

This means the marine layer likely thickens again early-mid next week = cooler. The overnight run of the monthly ECMWF shows the pattern returning to a more typical summer setup just after 10 days out…we’ll see. Just for fun and to scramble your brain a bit…here’s the ensemble forecast for max temperature at Salem for the next 46 days.

Notice there is an uptick right around the 11th as the trough weakens. We’ll see how that plays out. But as of now there’s not reason to think this is going to be a cool and cloudy summer.

On the flip side, we are overdue for a cooler than average summer; we haven’t seen one of those in many years. Portland has seen 6 consecutive warm (or hot!) summers. Last summer was a bit warmer than normal, mainly due to unusually warm Pacific ocean water leading to warm nights. But no heat waves or 100 degree days, that was nice.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

20 Responses to Nice Independence Day Weather Ahead; But July Starts Cool

  1. Roland Derksen says:

    I haven’t seen a temperature at 80F or above since May 28th here. That’s not too unusual-yet. However, if we still don’t have one by the end of the month, it’ll be the first July without it since 1993.

  2. Roland Derksen says:

    Yesterday here in my opinion was a great summer day: sunny, from dawn to dusk, light winds , high at 75F- it doesn’t get any better for a summer day. Unfortunately, the next couple of days will see a bit of a slide back to cloudier conditions.

  3. runrain says:

    I read an article recently that listed the 11 best places to visit. Fortunately, none of them were in the Northwest. The writer must have been from here, omitting the real paradise. That’ll keep ‘em away!

  4. runrain says:

    Usually our cool weather is done by July 4th. Looking like it may go a few weeks beyond that. By the time hot weather comes around (if it does at all) there won’t be a lot of summer left. Let’s all buckle down for a long cool wet winter.

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    What a difference 47 miles make. June rainfall in Salem was 1.41 inches. That was .14 inches below normal. Also it looks like we start to heat up around the 11th. Hopefully it does. Going to the fireworks display at Volcanoes stadium in Keizer Saturday night. $20 a car if anybody else wants to go. Peace and happy Independence Day.

  6. Roland Derksen says:

    Yesterday (July 1) was our national holiday here in Canada, but the weather was low overcast with light rain. It certainly wasn’t my wettest, but it was cool- 58F for a high. I ‘m ready for some warmer weather.

  7. boydo3 says:

    So that means here on the south coast the highs will be slightly below 70 instead of slightly above 70. Might have to wear a long sleeve T.

  8. Jason Hougak says:

    Frost advisory at my property in Klamath County😁😆🤣😆😁👍🏼👍🏼 Love it

  9. Bummer says:

    I hate living here, another summer bummer. Is it too much to ask for actual nice weather?

    • Sun Starved says:

      You said it. These cloudy skies are really depressing…and they just don’t stop. I honor all of you that love it here, but I can’t wait to move in a few months!

  10. Kyle says:

    I just hope we can see the penumbral eclipse on the night of the 4th! While it won’t be a spectacular eclipse it will darken the moon somewhat.

  11. Roland Derksen says:

    Yes we are overdue for a cloudy and cooler than average summer- hopefully not too cloudy and cool. summer 1976? not again, please.

  12. W7ENK says:

    And no big warm up in the foreseeable future, so I don’t want to hear any whining!

%d bloggers like this: