Much Cooler Weekend Ahead, But Not Much Rain

11:00pm Thursday…

We’ve had a nice spell of summer weather lately. Today was the 5th warm and dry day in Portland

We’ve only seen rain one day out of the past nine.

I finally hooked up my drip irrigation system in the garden the past two days; it’s pretty clear the summer dry spell has begun and we’re into a stable temperature regime. No long period of cold/wet weather is in sight.

THE BIG PICTURE

  1. There won’t be much rain the next 10 days or so. Showers are likely Sunday and MAYBE a shower the middle of next week, but that’s about it. You should now be watering everything in your yard and garden.
  2. Temperatures cool over the weekend, then bounce back to around normal through next week. There is NO SIGN of a hot spell or heat wave in the next 10+ days. If you want to hit the river or lake with your boat, you won’t find roasting hot temperatures to go with it.

In case you are headed to the northern Oregon or southern Washington coastline this weekend:

Take a look at the morning ECMWF ensemble model forecast of 24 hour rainfall. Each horizontal line on the upper half of the chart represents one “member”. Basically the model is run 50 times at a lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions.

Most ensemble members produce light showers overhead Sunday as an upper-level trough passes. But notice only about half of those give us .10″ or more. Not exactly a soaker! Then there are hints of a shower possibly Tuesday or Wednesday but that’s about it; mainly dry the next 15 days. The GFS model is similar

The cool weather coming for Saturday and Sunday is due to a cool upper-level trough dropping south out of Canada. If it was January we’d be talking about low elevation snow and modified arctic air moving south. The center of that low moves over Eastern Oregon and Idaho and that’s where the much heavier rain will fall. That low lingers through Monday and Tuesday over there. A very unusual late June soaker is on the way for northeast Oregon (which has been plenty wet this year). ECMWF thinks 1-2″ by Tuesday afternoon!

The Canadian model (GEM) brings an inch of rain all the down into the Ochoco mountains by this time.

This general pattern (without much rain) continues the rest of next week and likely beyond the 4th of July. Notice the below average heights across the West next week

Then just a bit below average heights for the 2nd week of July. This is from last night’s run of the ECMWF, but the GFS and GEM models are similar.

That’s it for this evening…I’ll be back at work Sunday.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

11 Responses to Much Cooler Weekend Ahead, But Not Much Rain

  1. JERAT416 says:

    I’m doing an auto detail tomorrow afternoon, rain or shine. I did two last Saturday and did fine haha! Today was nice

  2. Roland Derksen says:

    Well, we’ve been having warmer than average night time minimums of late, so temperatures will probably end up at least near normal for June in my location. Precipitation? A bit above normal, but nothing really unusual.

  3. JERAT416 says:

    2007 started off cool in July. Many said “I guess summer is over”, but it definitely wasn’t. I like the fact it isn’t hot yet.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      I think my definition of hot is different than some of yours. 4 of the last 8 days have been over 85 degrees including 93 one day. 1 day was 84. That’s hot to me. Especially in June.

  4. Ellen Wallace says:

    My tomatoes aren’t happy but ok. Slightly off subject but I was wondering about the dust from the Sahara (in the southern states) and the (possible) ash from the volcanoes in AK and the new one in Russia with the wind patterns this way. I know the sunsets will be nice in the southern tier but will it affect us?

    • W7ENK says:

      My tomatoes are doing just fine. 6 different varieties, waist high and loaded with blossoms, the bees are loving it! The majority of my sweet corn is already knee high, too. Raspberries are loaded, peas and beans are climbing, cucumbers and squash are going absolutely nuts, and I have more nasturtiums than I can keep up with!

      As for the dust, that shouldn’t affect us at all up here in the PNW. Not sure about the volcanoes, I’ve not been paying much attention to that…

  5. W7ENK says:

    Why? Why does this keep happening?? Why can’t we get a nice weekend without ANY rain???

    • Jake in Gresham says:

      I’ve not seen such a cool start to Summer but I love the cold (seriously would move to Alaska if a darn Hospital would hire me for IT work up there).

      On the bright side dude Mt Saint Helens and Mt. Hood in the morning are simply breath taking.

      I want to get back into some long distance hikes but I don’t want to get swept away by a river I know I’ll try to cross lol!

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        June is actually above average temperature-wise so far. The average high today is only 76. We have a couple of slighty below normal days coming up and then close to average (both sides) for at least a while.

    • Paul D says:

      You need to move your work days around so your weekend is when it’s sunny 🙂

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