It’s been a wet month west of the Cascades, especially in the metro area. We saw another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Of course in this weather setup some of us get soaked and others not so much. 24 hour rain totals (I’ve excluded anything under .50″) show some spots getting close to an inch!
Portland has picked up about .20″, bringing the monthly total to 3.16″. That’s our six wettest June
So we’re just at the halfway mark and we’ve already seen 11 days with measurable rain. That’s more “rainy days” this month than the last 5 Junes!
Of course we even saw a weak tornado Saturday evening in Damascus. One more in a series of EF-0 events the past three years
What’s ahead? Some summer temperatures!
All models agree that upper-level ridging takes control for the next week (or longer). That does NOT mean we’ll be rain-free the next 7 days; it just means we’re done with the cold showers. The next three days will be great with warming temperatures and all dry weather; our first stretch of 3 dry days in a few weeks
It gets more interesting Saturday; an out-of season atmospheric river sends a lot of tropical moisture around the northern edge of the upper level ridge. You can see the high precipitable water values pushing north Friday
Even though the atmosphere will be warm, there’s a good chance we get at least a few showers Saturday through the first part of Sunday. Of course the farther south you go the better chance for dry weather. Right now the GFS is pushing about .10 to .20″ rain through the metro area during that time. The ECMWF ensembles are similar,
so we’ve made some adjustments to our weekend forecast. It’ll be a gray weekend, but not cool/chilly like the last two. More of a “humid/mild” weekend.
The screaming message for this upcoming weekend? If you want guaranteed dry weather, head south and/or east. It’s still possible the 2nd half of Sunday (Father’s Day) will be totally dry for an afternoon BBQ or outside dinner.
Beyond this weekend, the ridging is sticking around for at least the first part of next week, so I expect warming temps again Monday-Wednesday. The ECMWF high/low ensemble forecast keeps those temperatures well above average next week. You can typically add about 3-8 degrees to these numbers for a Portland high in the warm season.
Enjoy the warm & dry weather for a few days!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen