It’s Payback Time! June Rains Soak Portland After A Dry Spring

9pm Tuesday…

It’s been a soaker the past few days, especially central and east metro. These numbers are from PDX, the official observing site in Portland.

As of this evening we are sitting at 2.32″ for the month, a full half inch above our typical TOTAL June rain total.

One could easily argue, based on that image, that we’re overdue for a wet June. It’s payback time! We’ve seen quite a string of drier than normal Junes. By the way, how wet CAN it get in June? There have been three years with more than 4″ of rain in June at PDX: 1984, 2010, & 2012.

On my Twitter feed, a viewer asked me if this means anything for our upcoming summer? Does it mean we’ll have a cool/wet summer? I doubt a wet June means much for what follows. So many times I’ve seen the rain suddenly shut off later in the month and the summer dry spell begins. For fun, I checked the five wettest Junes in Portland (1954, 1981, 1984, 2010, 2012). What happened in July and August? The composite shows cooler than normal temps for July

August? Similar…cooler than average

Quite interesting. If we have a cooler than average summer it’ll be the first time in many years. Last summer may have been cloudier than recent years, but was still warmer than normal. This is last July/August combined…

Could we finally have a “cool” summer on the way? We’ll see. If so, NOAA doesn’t think so. They feel the odds tilt toward warm/hot for summer 2020

WeatherBELL’s summer outlook is similar

AccuWeather has hopped onto the “PACNW Summer Scorcher” train as well

The seasonal versions of the Euro and Canadian models also give us a warmer than normal summer.

Regardless, we have more rain on the way for the next week. I don’t see a decent chance for a 3 day dry spell through at least the middle of next week

How much more rain? Maybe another 1″ through next Wednesday or so as a cool upper-level trough moves overhead this weekend and then again the middle of next week. All models are hinting at a change about 9 days out. See the drop in 24 hour rainfall late next week? This is the ECMWF ensemble run from this morning. Each horizontal line shows 24 hour rainfall for each six hour period for the next two weeks. The bottom part of the chart is the average of all 51 ensemble members

So there’s your light at the end of the tunnel; we might see some real summer weather about 10 days from now…maybe. For now enjoy the rain, slugs, and comfortable temps!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

44 Responses to It’s Payback Time! June Rains Soak Portland After A Dry Spring

  1. W7ENK says:

    Witnessed a rotating thunderstorm pass over Milwaukie around 3:15.

    Appeared to possibly have a funnel form as it passed roughly 1 mile to my NE and E.

    (Sorry for the janky handheld video.)

    Reported to NWS, which subsequently issued a Special Weather Statement.

    Also had a startling clap of thunder roll right over my house about 15 minutes later. Just heard the one.

  2. W7ENK says:

    I’m glad no one is complaining about a perceived lack of rainfall anymore.

  3. Roland Derksen says:

    We’re only half way through the month, but this June reminds of the one in 2012. Intrestingly, that summer turned out pretty good here, though it took a while to get going.

    • W7ENK says:

      Down here it’s more reminiscent of June 2010. We’re well on our way to a 6/2010 redux, if this keeps up.


    Grand solar minimum.

    • Andy says:

      I agree…Our weather will be all over the place with hot and cold and more extremes with a minimum. The greatest driver of our weather is the sun and the oceans. This Grand Solar minimal is projected to last the next 30 to 40 years. The interesting part it’s just getting started, Lots of extreme wet and cold in the Southern hemisphere for June that is beginning of winter for them, Records that have been held for 90 years have been broken in Australia and New Zealand. This was mentioned on recently.

    • Andy says:

      I found the info on YouTube on the GSM channel. The sight uses the watchers web sight to show weekly or daily extreme weather. A lot of weather and insight on weather news we don’t hear about in our media. GSM channel explains what happens with a Grand Solar Minimal. Were not going into an ice age unless we have a major volcanic eruption…we will have more extreme weather events. Heat events in summer and extreme cold events more often in winters. Just a few things they talk about.

  5. Jason Hougak says:

    Was working on my truck yesterday in the shop and a squall went through then the wind went crazy. I joked to my buddy, feels like a tornado just went through.

    • Grizzly Bear says:

      Saturday late afternoon I had just arrived at my little cabin in Barton after driving in from Idaho. It was dark, dreary, windy and raining hard, standing water everywhere and cold. I left and headed up to Oregon City to spend the evening with my ex. Anyway living in Oregon many many years I have never seen such a dark and dreary June afternoon like that day!

  6. runrain says:

    My Twitter is @Parimrock. Video is there.

  7. runrain says:

    That had to be a tornado that just went thru Damascus. I have extensive video including debris from about 5 miles away.

  8. runrain says:

    Juneuary – I called it a few weeks ago. I know. Lucky guess.

  9. lurkingsince’14 says:

    Welp, those thunderstorms the last week or so were kinda cool, but today just plain sucks 🌧

    Bring on summer!

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    Personally I like to go with the trend vs weather guessers and computers. If we’ve had wetter June’s and it’s brought cooler summers I’m good with that.

    • Paul D says:

      Cooler summer? That would be nice! We didn’t hit 100 last year – how about two years in a row!

  11. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    And a decent shower has commenced as of a couple minutes ago here in Oak Grove. Don’t think it’s a thunderstorm, but it’s coming down decently.

  12. Andy says:

    Thunderstorm went through around 9 here in Albany.Enjoyed the lightning and thunder.

  13. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Well see how tonight goes. I went out on a limb about having thunderstorms today but it looks like we could see them tonight. I just looked at the radar and I’m seeing thunderstorms down next to Medford area. Two of the thunderstorms are Severe. Maybe we could see nocturnal thunderstorms which will be even better to see the lightning. Let’s see if I’m correct about the thunderstorms 🤗😉🌩⛈

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Could be right. At least some sort of moderate shower activity is firing up in the valley, along I-5 in particular, just south of Salem right now. Don’t think there’s enough to cause good ones, but it’s better than an absolute 0 chance and just… The air feels semi-right for nocturnal thunderstorms.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        I hear thunder on my area. I just stepped outside so I didn’t see the flash. I think we have a good chance to see thunderstorms tonight 🤗😉🌩⛈

  14. Jake in Gresham says:

    Sauna level crap. I’m going camping into Eastern Oregon around Dufur. Hoping to see some thunderstorms, I’ve had enough!

    Curious to observe insect levels and plant life with all this rain. Probably going to be turned into mosquito slurpee while I’m there.

    But I need to get out. I’m looking at scenery in video games more than playing the game itself.

  15. Ken in Wood Village says:

    So I’m awake, laying in bed because I woke up with severe heartburn 😒 I took something for it and it’s starting to kick in so I’m hoping I can go back to bed soon 🤗🤗

    I’m going out onto a limb and say we could see a chance of thunderstorms today. Why do you ask!? I think it was yesterday or the day before the HRRR was showing a set-up for thunderstorms. It was a very slight chance but looking at the flow pattern right now, it’s a good flow to build thunderstorms.

    Like I said, I’m going out on a limb. I’m not saying we will have a massive outbreak but there could be a couple here and there. 🤗😉🌩⛈

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      Oops, I said HRRR when I meant to say NAM. I just realized the HRRR doesn’t go that far out….lol.

      Lack of sleep right now and having a hard time thinking…lol

  16. W7ENK says:

    OMG, now the Sun came out, and the humidity has pushed the dew point up even higher! Forget the Midwest, this feels more like Florida!!

    74 degrees, RH 88%, DP 70F

    This is miserable… 💦🥵💦

    • Paul D says:

      Calling forecast bust! 7-day shows 63 for today and it’s currently 74 at my place!

      • W7ENK says:

        Unless we get something to push this humidity out of the area, it’s gonna be a warm one overnight. Low last night was 59…

      • Paul D says:

        Make that 81. Major bust!

        • W7ENK says:

          Yup. High temp of 81 here yesterday. Max DP hit 70F during the Noon hour.

          Overnight low last night was 59 degrees, again.

          Currently 73 degrees, RH 71%, DP 63F

          Today feels a tad more comfortable…. -ish.

  17. OMK says:

    This weather sucks….

  18. W7ENK says:

    10am: 70 degrees, RH 93%, DP 68F

    FFS, it feels like the Midwest up in here.
    Is this going to be the new normal?


    • W7ENK says:

      I just had to turn on my A/C in an attempt to purge some of this stuffy, sticky, humid air out of my house… and now it’s raining, so the RH bumped up another couple of points, as did the DP!

      70 degrees, RH 97%, DP 69F

      Gawd, this is gross!!

  19. MasterNate says:

    Don’t bet the farm on NOAAs summer forecast. They are almost always off that far out. IMO, Pete Parsons with ODA long range is far more accurate.

  20. Mike says:

    This rain is so good. My trees are loving this extended spring, growing like crazy, but the vegetable garden is a bit slow. I love this weather. Thanks Mark for the report….. always interesting.

  21. W7ENK says:

    Ughhhh… 😦

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