It’s Payback Time! June Rains Soak Portland After A Dry Spring

June 9, 2020

9pm Tuesday…

It’s been a soaker the past few days, especially central and east metro. These numbers are from PDX, the official observing site in Portland.

As of this evening we are sitting at 2.32″ for the month, a full half inch above our typical TOTAL June rain total.

One could easily argue, based on that image, that we’re overdue for a wet June. It’s payback time! We’ve seen quite a string of drier than normal Junes. By the way, how wet CAN it get in June? There have been three years with more than 4″ of rain in June at PDX: 1984, 2010, & 2012.

On my Twitter feed, a viewer asked me if this means anything for our upcoming summer? Does it mean we’ll have a cool/wet summer? I doubt a wet June means much for what follows. So many times I’ve seen the rain suddenly shut off later in the month and the summer dry spell begins. For fun, I checked the five wettest Junes in Portland (1954, 1981, 1984, 2010, 2012). What happened in July and August? The composite shows cooler than normal temps for July

August? Similar…cooler than average

Quite interesting. If we have a cooler than average summer it’ll be the first time in many years. Last summer may have been cloudier than recent years, but was still warmer than normal. This is last July/August combined…

Could we finally have a “cool” summer on the way? We’ll see. If so, NOAA doesn’t think so. They feel the odds tilt toward warm/hot for summer 2020

WeatherBELL’s summer outlook is similar

AccuWeather has hopped onto the “PACNW Summer Scorcher” train as well

The seasonal versions of the Euro and Canadian models also give us a warmer than normal summer.

Regardless, we have more rain on the way for the next week. I don’t see a decent chance for a 3 day dry spell through at least the middle of next week

How much more rain? Maybe another 1″ through next Wednesday or so as a cool upper-level trough moves overhead this weekend and then again the middle of next week. All models are hinting at a change about 9 days out. See the drop in 24 hour rainfall late next week? This is the ECMWF ensemble run from this morning. Each horizontal line shows 24 hour rainfall for each six hour period for the next two weeks. The bottom part of the chart is the average of all 51 ensemble members

So there’s your light at the end of the tunnel; we might see some real summer weather about 10 days from now…maybe. For now enjoy the rain, slugs, and comfortable temps!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen