Our First “Heat Wave” Late This Week

9pm Monday…

May has arrived after the 4th driest April on record in Portland.  Less than 1″ of rain through the entire month!  That’s mid-summer dry.  Some areas west of the Cascades had a bit more…around 1.00 to 1.50″.  Still a dry month.  Warmer than average as well.

What’s ahead?

May in Portland Stats

May is typically the month where we turn the corner, leaving behind the really chilly spring weather.  We also tend to see some “very warm” weather at some point during the month.  In fact each of the past 8 years we’ve hit at least 85 at some point during the month.

May Warmest Temp

Most interesting is that the 89 last year occurred on May 10th.  That would be this coming weekend.  It appears we’ll be very close to that number again this Saturday.

We have our first warm season “heat wave” pattern setting up Thursday through Sunday.  The weather setup for these events is always similar.  Strong upper-level high pressure builds along the West Coast.  Then the sinking/drying of the airmass leads to surface high pressure east of the Cascades.  At the same time easterly wind around 5,000′ develops across the region.  That produces a “lee side trough” in western Oregon & SW Washington.  We also call that a “thermal trough”; an area of low pressure that develops on the “back side” of the Cascades due to the easterly flow.  That leads to a surface easterly wind as well since pressures are lower west of the Cascades.  This all adds up to the warmest possible weather for us anytime between April and September.  In the case of late this week, the atmosphere overhead won’t be crazy warm, so no 90s.   But we’ll be close.

You can see the progression of events on the Canadian model.  Strong surface high pressure building just north of us Wednesday afternoon.

gem_7pmwed

Quick clearing that afternoon after some morning showers…ignore the colors.  Then by Thursday afternoon the “thermal trough” is getting established west of the Cascades, although it’s more of an northeast wind instead of straight easterly at the surface.

gem_thursdaypm

Friday is the big warm up, a very sharp trough is sitting right along the coastline.  Strong easterly wind through the Gorge and down the west slopes of the Cascade/Coast ranges

gem_friday7am

This is the one day the beaches may hit the low-mid 80s, especially north of Lincoln City to the Long Beach peninsula.

7 Day North Coast

The thermal trough is still west of the Cascades by late Saturday afternoon, but easterly wind goes calm.  This is typically the warmest day of the episode in the metro area; early east wind going calm or very light westerly late in the day.

saturdaypm

By this time flow is back to onshore along the coast and maybe into the southern Willamette Valley too.  Could be a few degrees cooler from Salem south

How warm could we get Friday and Saturday?   It is possible we make it to 90 degrees. otherwise it’ll be close.

Models are in very good agreement laying down +15 to +17 (celsius) 850mb temperature both afternoons over Salem.  Based on past cases in early-mid May with offshore flow and 100% sunshine, PDX should see a high temp between 86 and 91!  Last year a +16 produced that 89 degree day on the 10th.  So our temperature forecast of 84 & 86 those two days might actually be a bit low.

Data Driven Forecast Highs Next 7 Day Meteogram

Regardless, we have several days of summer weather coming up Thursday through Mother’s Day.  Get your BBQs and kiddie pools ready…

Since it’s been so dry you should be watering everything starting this week, including your lawns.  Dry easterly wind really dries out potted plants quickly.  That’s too bad since it’ll be the third consecutive year we’ve seen very dry weather start early in the season.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

 

9 Responses to Our First “Heat Wave” Late This Week

  1. Paul D says:

    LAST!

  2. Anonymous says:

    Thanks for the heads up. These patterns are the worst for us out here in the gorge. There is virtually no mention of the East wind element of this in the normal forecast, so it’s easy to get all excited about the warm up, only to realize that with that strong East wind, you can’t get out and enjoy it if you live in a part of Corbett that really gets belted with it as we do and it dries out everything we’ve been working so hard to get going in pots etc. MUCH appreciate the confirmation of the winds….we’ll just have to water everything and then head out somewhere else to enjoy the warmth! 🙂

  3. Paul D says:

    Gov. Brown better put up the barricades on 26 to the coast or the masses will be heading there this weekend!

  4. JERAT416 says:

    As usual, a mixed bag of spring weather. A cool, wet weekend followed by on and off showers and sunbreaks, then a few hot days. We are behind with rainfall, but overall this is pretty normal. Beware of everyone installing air conditioners by Friday, even though they likely won’t be needed very often until July.

    • Paul D says:

      My heat pump is ready to keep my house chilled! I’ll definitely be using it this weekend.

  5. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    You’re missing the fact the Euro ensembles are garbage for anything other than large-scale patterns. They have a major cold bias in our area and always over-do the precipitation. Their low resolution doesn’t do well for us.

    The 00z has an ensemble mean of 80 for a high on Saturday. Range of 74-86. See how garbage it is? Mark’s forecast is at or above the highest of the 50 members.

    • Tanis Leach says:

      I was referring to the 850 mb temperatures. The 2m temperatures are garbage after it hits 50 degrees. The 850 mb seems aggressive even for the Euro.

  6. Tanis Leach says:

    I do have a question looking at the European ensemble members. 1. Using the 12z Euro as an example over Salem, the 10% to 90% range on Saturday is from 53 to 67 degrees F, translating to 11.5 to 19.5 degrees C. Ensemble average is 60F (14.5C). Something tells me based on this range we aren’t done seeing changes to the forecast. On the high end, we could see possibly a 96 degree high, or on the low end, it becomes a bust and turns into around 70-75 for a high.

    Let me know if I’m missing anything.

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