3pm Tuesday…
A quick blog post to let you know everything is proceeding according to plan. Take a look at that cyclone! A gust over 100 mph at Cape Blanco
This is the water vapor image. NOAA has a mesoscale floating sector over the storm right now. That means a pic every one minute. Check it out here, you can switch to different viewing “channels” to. For example TRUE COLOR is the typical visible view we show on TV: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso3-10-96-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
We’ve dried out in the metro area and we expect a gusty east wind tonight as the low moves onshore. Then the wind dies down toward sunrise. Here’s the latest ECMWF snow forecast for the next 48 hours:
PORTLAND METRO AREA: All quiet now except for that breezy east wind tonight. Dry weather through at least Saturday and chilly, although not “arctic cold”.
CASCADES: Big snow storm tonight. Timberline/Meadows have picked up at least 15″ snow and they can expect another 10-15″ the next 24 hours.
SW OREGON: Lots of snow above the 1,500′ elevation down there. Looks a bit too warm for significant accumulation in Eugene or Roseburg. Maybe a brief wet inch this evening? Travel looks terrible south of Ashland on I-5. Wait until Thursday
CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON: Lots of snow, plenty of winter storm warnings out over there
GORGE: Gorge should be mainly dry, but some light snow is possible at times now through Thursday AM east of Cascade Locks. I’d be surprised to see more than 1″ at river level. Much better snow accumulations in the middle/upper Hood River Valley.
That’s it for now…busy tonight on the 4pm, 5pm, 8pm, 9pm, 10pm, & 11pm shows. You can find me there.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
I have seen on the news where it ripped a roof off a hardware store.
.many on another site were mocking the event before it started.
I have great respect for nature and its ability to make our lives …challenging…
I am thankful, we did not get the full brute force of this system.
Disappointed that models are sending moisture Sunday well south into California. Our dry stretch continues! Pretty unreal. I was hoping for at least some snow showers over Cascades and Central Oregon late this weekend and possibly flirt with mixed precip around Portland. Not to be. I’m just glad it’s still only early December. Have a couple months to see the pattern change. I just hope we don’t have another repeat of last year when the key “ingredients” for winter weather didn’t materialize until too late in season.
You should take a glance at the Cowlitz River.
KPTV really should send a crew to cover it..it is..very low.
Anyone want to guess what the driest part of the US will be over the next week? You guessed it… I5 corridor from Portland to Seattle and the eastern half of Washington. Getting old. There are hints that beginning late next we can get into more of a normal pattern. We NEED it.
Hey wx geeks. Just want to comment on the MrRealist thing. As far as I can tell, Mr R has not engaged in any snarky personal attacks, which puts him on my OK list. I suspect your (our) animus comes from what his name implies about the rest of us. If he has a sin, it’s that he tends to predict just what Mark does. Shall we kick Mark off for being a Debbie Downer? On another note, why has nobody mentioned the implications of current shifts in the MJO? Suggests meridional pattern for the long term. BTW, though “It never rains in Autzen stadium,” there seems to be a non-zero probability of flakes (non-human, that is) at the Civil War!
Outflow winds are really roaring here in Bellingham, and it’s not even to what’s forecast to be the strongest part of the event yet. So far as cold, not so much. Temperatures holding right around the 40˚F mark (which is why I’m not using “arctic” in front of “outflow”).
Some model runs are forecasting up to 3″ of overrunning snow here (before precip turns to rain) on the 1st or the 2nd. Only some, but it’s been a recurring pattern that some runs show it. So there’s that chance. We shall see.
Hi. Posted what I though was a pretty innocuous comment a while back but I guess it didn’t pass the censors. Do we ever hear why comments are witheld?
Hi–Posted what I though was a pretty harmless comment a while back but it didn’t make the cut. Do we ever hear why?
First time posters always get snagged by Mark’s filter, which have to be reviewed and then passed through by Mark. It’s an automatic feature of WordPress he has enabled, it works for each new alias, or if you post from a new IP address. It’s nothing personal.
Snowing here in Eugene…last gasp effort
Thin deformation band over our area
Welcome to The Dome™️
… That’s supposed to be a moving.gif 🤔
Hi W7ENK, I wanted to ask you about what website are you using to get codes so I can post pictures. I was using Tinypic but they closed that website and want me to go to another website and pay. Can you let me know were I should go, please and thank you.
I was in the same boat. I found this one, which works ok, but apparently doesn’t handle animated .gifs
https://imgbb.com/upload
After you upload your image, you have to select “HTML full linked” from the dropdown, copy/paste the link here to the blog, but then delete everything in between the “quotation marks” as seen highlighted in this image.
You only want to post the URL for the image itself, without all that other garbage.
CORRECTION: Delete everything that’s NOT between the quotation marks, leaving just the URL for the image itself!
Reporting from Longview Washington. We have winds.
Update we had to leave castle rock due to building problems.
Beyond our control…we were homeless for a month..got in to family Promise, and now we are in a better place.
8d not want to ever experience Homelessness ever again.
It’s pure hell on a child with Autism.
Speaking of the underworld.
Were not planning to travel very far.for thanks giving.
A church adopted our family :).
I pray for wisdom, and protection for those traveling.
Good luck stay safe.
Lee?
We are having some pretty good wind gusts.
No snow as of now.
Lee Wilson reporting in from Longview Washington.
Heard that the barometric pressure in Crescent City, CA from this storm has set the all time low for the entire state. Something like 28.65 or 973 mb.
975mb
972.
Noticing the NWS keeps pushing back the transition time to snow in the south valley.
Because it isn’t happening lol.
Halfly my point. If we got any, the air gets the accumulation.
Welcome to ‘The Dome™️’
I hope at least some ski resorts are able to open for Thanksgiving because of this snow. But I realize they are starting from nothing so it may not be enough. At least maybe some of it won’t melt before the snowpack builds.
Timberline already announced Thanksgiving day opening.
Sweet!
Now they have pulled back to a wait and see because of adverse weather. Check back tomorrow at 7AM.
Holy moly, it’s windy out there!!
The wind definitely puts a hard chill in the air. Very interested if we will have enough cold air in place Saturday night for a small transition event if moisture moves in?????
I think I just heard thunder? Either that, or my neighbor’s empty garbage can just rolled through the sky over my house… 🤔
Really cool website I just found. The bomb cyclone is moving ashore right now:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-124.78,43.61,2274
Here’s another one. Zoom in on the OR/CA border to see the wind flow in detail.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=43.42;-122.50;6&l=temperature-2m&t=20191127/0300
I remember Thanksgiving 2010 when temps were very cold with high temps below freezing and lows at night below 20. Living in Kamiah Idaho now with a 1/2 of snow overnight and now back below freezing. Weather forecast for Grangeville about 20 miles south of here is for no temps above freezing for the next 7 days! I sure am glad to now be living in Idaho and no traffic jams.
Not sure where you got the 100mph gust at Cape Blanco. The NWS mesowest obs shows a max 74mph at 2:45
Yep that’s what I’ve been saying too (no snow for the metro area, not “first!” like some 10 year old).
Thanks Mark!
Idk if anyone here has had a chance to look at the 18z GFS and 12z Euro but there’s another system on the way around late evening November 30th / early morning for the 31st.
The GFS is all over the place with the 12z taking it North of us. While the Euro takes it South of us for a gorge effect snow (i.e. classic setup). Both have also stalled the system off shore (which could really mean snow in the right spot).
Potential I am feeling considering the snow pack we have now across the region.
Definitely keeping an eye on that too. Looks like more moisture than previously expected and significant snow over eastern part of state could promote some colder conditions in metro area. I still think too warm but at least something to watch.
And that would be early morning Sunday December 1st I’m assuming. We don’t want to make November longer than it already is!
Ahem, thanks. 😛
November 31st doesn’t exist. 🤣😂🤣
“30 days have September, April June and NOVEMBER…”
Aw man, look at me go and make days. Lol!
FIRST!
Or not… 😂🤣😂
Wow!! Thanks for the update, Mark! Hope you find some time with all this weather news to relax and enjoy Thanksgiving!