Southern Oregon Storm Tomorrow, But Quiet Weather Ahead Metro Area

6:30pm Monday…

As mentioned in last night’s post, a strong storm is headed for the California/Oregon border tomorrow afternoon.  Not much has changed and I’m in six evening newscasts tonight, so this will be a bit briefer.


  • Low elevation sticking snow is very unlikely west of the Cascades north of Eugene tomorrow and tomorrow night.  That includes Longview, Vancouver, Portland, Salem etc…  No, it’s not going to snow & stick in Portland.
  • Weather will be uneventful the next few days in these areas (including metro) as well
  • Expect another 12-15″ snow in the Cascades before it dries out Thanksgiving morning.  Most of that falls Wednesday.
  • I-5 south of Roseburg to Redding could easily shut down tomorrow night and/or Wednesday, especially south of Ashland.  Plan accordingly!
  • Thanksgiving Weekend will be chilly, although not an “arctic blast”.  Highs 40-45 in the western lowlands and lows 20-25 degrees.

The “explosive cyclogenesis” is still forecast to occur off the Oregon coastline the next 24 hours.  That’s sometimes called “bombogenesis“, a “meteorological bomb”, or even a “bomb cyclone”.  The 18z ECMWF model takes a 1010 mb low down to 970 mb as it moves onto the coastline somewhere around Brookings.  That’s 40 millibars in less than 24 hours!  Luckily the track means most of the big wind is offshore and the southerly movement “takes away” from the southerly wind gusts over land.

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As of early this evening, all models except the ECMWF totally dry us out within 24 hours north of Salem.  Even the new 18z ECMWF just gives us a few sprinkles tomorrow evening/night.  Thus it’s very unlikely the lowest elevations will see snow, even just in the air.  Notice the 10″ plus over Siskiyou Summit south of Ashland on I-5?  That’s going to cause plenty of trouble tomorrow evening and Wednesday

ECMWF Snow Accumulation Hourly

The rest of the forecast is easy…dry and chilly Thursday through Saturday.  Snow-covered areas east of the Cascades turn VERY cold.

See you tonight at 8pm/9pm on FOX12PLUS (usually channel 49 or 13), then 10pm/11pm on FOX12.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

58 Responses to Southern Oregon Storm Tomorrow, But Quiet Weather Ahead Metro Area

  1. Yesterday evening, Redding airport reported snow for a few hours. So it’s official: Redding had an earlier snowfall than either Seattle or Portland this winter.

  2. Andrew says:

    Models definitely trending a bit wetter Sat-Mon. Likely not cold enough air to produce anything down at sea level but was looking a lot drier on earlier model runs. More snow for mountains!

  3. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    Barely broke 40 today

  4. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Just to tease people that want snow. It’s been snowing like crazy in Nebraska

  5. Mr Realist says:

    Luckily it looks like next week we go back to mid 40’s. The big question is will we have to deal with a small transition event Saturday evening or Sunday morning????

    Precipitation looks light but colder air below may just be cold enough for some light ZR.

  6. paulbeugene says:

    41 dewpt 37F here in Eugene. Looking at HRRR 3km output, shows heavier precipitation progressing into the area by noon, with about 5-6 hours of precip up to .1-.2”per hour at peak. I think changeover to snow toward late afternoon possible but timing of this suggests me to think that there won’t be accumulating snow here in valley floor. In the hills around town looks to me 2-4” possible (above 800-1000’)

  7. Andrew says:

    Latest models show showers late Saturday-Sunday a bit stronger than in previous runs. With the coldish air mass in place, perhaps we will see some flakes in air. Disappointed that we seem to be trending towards a warmer pattern next week. But hey, it’s not even December yet.

  8. I’m now under a high wind warning for strong Fraser outflow tomorrow. Gusts to 60 mph forecast. Wind should start later today and peak tomorrow. Not calling it “arctic” because temps for the most part are forecast to be in the 30’s and 40’s.

  9. Roland Derksen says:

    Some snow showers reported here in the Greater Vancouver area, but not at my location:too mild, Oh well, there’s plenty of time to go yet .

    • Too dry here. Not a big surprise; Bellingham gets significantly less moisture than Vancouver. Models were mostly showing shower activity this morning would be to my north.

      • Roland Derksen says:

        Rubus, I need to update things slightly- we did see some flakes here after all, what with temperatures at 37F in the precipitation. But tht’s all finished now with clearing skies.

  10. JERAT416 says:

    Well we may not get the goods this time around, but it beats the first few weeks of November. We have lots of snow falling in the mountains, and we have cooled down quite a bit. We shall see what happens next ! It’s nice to see this blog waking back up again. When Mark routinely blogs less than once per week, we all know things are slow.

  11. runrain says:

    The east winds have just started to blow at Crown Point in the last hour.

  12. saumcreek says:

    You know, I’ve been following this blog for years and I don’t know a single, solitary thing about meteorology – and this is the first time I’ve commented. I follow along because I work as an admin at a school and we are always needing to keep an eye on winter weather. We also enjoy chatting about possible upcoming snowstorms, even though we are all rational adults and understand forecasts change.

    Mr. Realist is a troll, and it’s true that you shouldn’t feed them, but he’s just one of several regular commenters on here who routinely take the fun out of everything. There are at least 2 others whose comments I would block permanently if it were an option as they are always predictably negative and a downer. We all know we’re probably not going to be hit by a crazy storm next week, but it’s fun to think about. Why does that need to be ruined?

    Anyway, Happy Thanksgiving. I’m off to wish for snow!

  13. MasterNate says:

    Timberline already has 2′ on the ground. If they pick up another 1′ they should have a few runs open by Thanksgiving!

  14. JohnD says:

    Most of us follow the blog–and weather in general–as one of our hobby passions (not the only one.) If we get excited about what models are showing for hour 366–or any other–it is our prerogative.
    It seems to me pretty sick and sad when trolls come on strictly for the purpose of mean and destructive comments. If that is the best they have in their sorry human life I guess we should feel compassion. On the other hand it is very disruptive. It is a breach of blog rules. And I frankly don’t understand how Mark allows it.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      I emailed Mark last night about the situations with the person who is being disruptive. I’m not sure when Mark will see his email but I’m hoping Mark will take action on this person soon.

  15. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    The odd thing about reading troll comments on this blog is that the trolls actually do their research. Either they know weather and want to call you guys out as wishcasting goons in the most below the bar kind of way, or they’re just getting lucky and saying things to spost the community… Regardless of what it is, those in this blog seriously fall for it over and over and over again. I could tell a friend of mine to spost in this using meteorlogic terms, or, if not, I could just link them to a few articles and have them know what buzzwords to use and have them troll the hell out of this blog. I could probably use a 5 year old to troll this blog and get reactions.

    You guys are all smarter than this. Stop feeding the trolls. Seriously… It clearly doesn’t take much to antagonize the regulars here, so it’s a very low hanging target for those looking for the ‘lulz’ and getting their kicks. You guys are seriously smarter than this, based off of your overall knowledge. Stop falling for it.

    As for the troll in general; amazing attempt. You’re proving that you’re wasting weeks of your time to feel better about yourself because you’re unable to feel comfort being who you are as a person, so you need to degrade people that are smarter than you. Did you get what you want? I bet you did. So go tither away and hug yourself close at night because no one loves you.

    Please ban those who create this discord. And please, ban me because I’m feeding it. Seriously, the people here are smarter than this, almost all of you are.

    • Larry says:

      Well said

    • Kyle says:

      All I have to say is it’s equally trolling to get people all freaked out over hour 200 on whatever model. You can mention 200 hour but at that point do it in a Walter Cronkite way.

      As far as models go garbage in-garbage out.

    • Mr Realist says:

      That was very well put, I do know my way around weather and do truly like poking fun at the wishcaster that have nothing better to do than drool over hr 366.

      I do like reading their reactions when they get super pissed, I think maybe they need the help mot me. But for what its worth have a great Thanksgiving I’m out.

  16. Mountain Man says:

    I think someone broke your blog rules below Mark! Just FYI you might should take a look.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      I sent an email to Mark about it. Hopefully Mark will take care of it soon.

    • Larry says:

      Realist made a good point, its just his analogy was trash.

      But you cant do much about it– Leave that up to Mark, he is sure to bring justice!

      • Mountain Man says:

        I’m sure you can’t say what he said here. Until that he was being just somewhat of a troll which is annoying, but he did have a few valid points in a a few posts before and you can be a troll if you want. You can’t tell someone to put a something up there something. Time for him to take a break from here.

  17. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Mark, the rain gauge on your weather page is quite optimistic. Almost 10’’ today. Haha.

  18. Jake in Gresham says:

    Thanks for the update Mark and mentioning the trouble South of Medford. I mentioned in a previous post calling for trouble South of Medford with a closure of I-5. I think it will happen, especially in the spot you’re mentioning. I remember last Winter I-5 did close and I think it’ll happen again with this system (shocked if it doesn’t honestly).

  19. Paul D says:

    AACK! Empty the grocery stores! Brace for impact!!!

  20. ocpaul says:

    I’m so happy for those getting snow

  21. OMK says:

    Can confirm, it’s dumping up here in Govy/Mt. Hood. Glad to see some snow.

  22. W7ENK says:

    Carry-over from previous:

    Valid 06z Dec 11th, so 10pm PST Dec 10.

    942mb central pressure.

    This would truly be an historic wallop,
    if it were to come to pass. For comparison, CDS 1962 bottomed out at 960mb.

    Watch this one closely…

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      Yea, I saw this and was amazed to see how strong this low was. If it gets a little closer and stays this strong, we could be in for something historic in the fact we probably see amazing winds but the possibility of not having power for days or weeks.

      Like you said, we need to keep an eye on this closely…

    • Mr Realist says:

      Lmao, it’s so far out🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 it could also show a high pressure system bringing 90 degree weather and be just as believable.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        Only to you

      • K says:

        I’m surprised that a person on a weather blog doesn’t enjoy seeing potential crazy events highlighted, simply for fun. I think your schtick is getting old real fast. Maybe find a more conducive way to spend your time?

        • Mr Realist says:

          Maybe you should realize that a computer generated model that far out is as trustworthy as a homeless guy saying he put his finger up his ass and forecasted a smell of la la land 👍

      • Kyle says:

        Naaaaaaah Mr Realist. As long as the bias suites their wish fantasy it doesn’t matter if ‘their’ guy commits the crime. Don’t bother to educate them they are above you (in their minds only)

      • Kyle says:

        Naaaaaaah Mr Realist. As long as the bias suites their wish fantasy it doesn’t matter if ‘their’ guy commits the crime. Don’t bother to educate them they are above you (in their minds only)

        • Jake in Gresham says:

          Kyle’s right! Mr Realist totally has a legit argument. We can for sure get 90 degree weather when the sun sets at 4:30pm with a higher latitude than all major cities apart from Seattle and Fairbanks, Alaska. No reason to watch a potential deadly storm that could kill dozens. Oh no, not at all.

      • Andy says:

        I bet he believes in the Grinch!

        • Mr Realist says:

          Oh, Andy. Your on the naughty list and Jake above is a true wishcaster. Now dozens of lives are at stake???? You and Rob from S.E. should share pillows.

      • … you must be this years self appointed jerk.

      • sds says:

        Mister Realist doesn’t have to worry about sticking his finger up his ass because he just LMAO!

      • W7ENK says:

        You need to leave.

    • Mr Realist says:

      BTW, WKRP in Cincinnati. You are way off with this one, its not a thing.

  23. W7ENK says:

    Gonna be a wild ride for somebody!

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