Light Showers Likely Monday, Much Cooler Too

7pm Sunday…

This has been a fantastic July weekend hasn’t it?  Warm, not hot, but temps above average, low humidity, and a mix of clouds/sun.  Today we hit 84 which ties the warmest so far this month.  Quite a string of warm nights too; tomorrow morning we should see our 7th consecutive night in the 60s.  Check out the warm/hot temps today, the hot stuff was from Eugene south.

Todays Observed Highs OrWa 2017

Monday will be MUCH different weatherwise.  If you have something that shouldn’t/can’t get wet, you need to bring it in or cover it before you go to bed tonight.    There is a weak disturbance just offshore, you can see it in the latest GOES-WEST image.  Note a few thunderstorms across the SE quadrant of Oregon too.

sat_6pm

That weak system slides inland late tonight, and all models are showing very light rain showers.  Several bring showers over the Portland metro area as soon as right after sunrise.  A slide show here displays the ECMWF, HRRR, GFS, WRF-GFS, & RPM total rain forecast by Monday evening

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Obviously not a gully-washer, but enough to remind us this July is quite a bit different from recent years. The average temperature so far this month is running quite close to normal, held up by the warm nights due to cloud cover. Still, no sign of 90 degree weather through at least the 21st!

AVG Monthly temp_current vs normal

In general we’ll see quite a bit of cloud cover the next four days, but not much rain.   It’ll feel more like June than July.  That’s because an unusually deep upper-level trough is forecast to sit just to our north Thursday/Friday.  Luckily far enough north to keep most rain up there, but still unusual for mid July.

m500za_f120_bg_NA

The Positives?  Your air conditioning bill should be minimal to non-existent this year, fire danger is low, and our vegetation isn’t stressed.

The Negatives?  My pool will be too cool after today for 4-5 days so not real useful, water sports companies would like to see hotter/sunnier weather, and hot weather veggies grow slowly in this weather.

Most models are showing a warm-up again in time for next weekend and some show heat beginning around the 22nd/23rd.  But they’ve forecast that hot ridge to our east getting closer twice already this month and as we get closer models decide to keep it farther away.  So I have doubts there will be a significant pattern change in the next 8-12 days.  We’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

11 Responses to Light Showers Likely Monday, Much Cooler Too

  1. PSCZ is giving me a good soaking tonight. It’s soon to be something I leave behind. But I’ll be getting to live in Fraser Outflow Central (aka Bellingham) as compensation 😁.

  2. Roland Derksen says:

    Only 1 day above 80F here so far this month (compared to 8 last year in the first half of the month.) Tomorrow we get a good amount of rain and after that the sun returns by the weekend.

  3. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Looking forward to cooler nights later this week. Can’t complain about the daytime highs. July is actually above average temperature-wise so far.

  4. I’ve been mostly happy about the summer. I think its been perfect! Very few extremely hot days.

  5. Roland Derksen says:

    Happy St.Swithin’s Day everybody. The weather here is sunny and fairly nice temperaturewise, so I suppose summer will stay for the next 6 weeks! 🙂

  6. Kyle says:

    Though lately that breeze comes in at 6:00pm like clock work and brings that Salem effect over here and we finally cool off. Also mornings have been Thomas Kinkade style skies.

  7. Kyle says:

    I have two thermometers digital both shade and sun to compare and yesterday the sun temp was 96F briefly but 95F most of the afternoon. Cooled down to 94F after 5pm.

    THIS is a trough? When we had the high pressure ridge it felt cooler actually.

  8. Kyle says:

    It ain’t cooler down here. In the ‘Stayton Canyon’ as it’s called locally we have a slightly different micro climate. We actually have a rain shadow where if it’s westerly driven it’s blocked until you get to the foothills. We only get southerly driven rain and some SW flow rain.

    Also it’s slightly warmer. Salem was 84F yesterday but here was 87F and muggy. We all felt dizzy at times in the afternoon cause of it but only during afternoon hours. In the sun it has been 94F and BOY it sure feels it! You gotta get yard work done by 1pm or forget it!

    I went to Salem yesterday and immediately felt the difference going over that big hill with a westerly sort of breeze going which was non existent elsewhere.

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