Light Showers Likely Monday, Much Cooler Too

July 14, 2019

7pm Sunday…

This has been a fantastic July weekend hasn’t it?  Warm, not hot, but temps above average, low humidity, and a mix of clouds/sun.  Today we hit 84 which ties the warmest so far this month.  Quite a string of warm nights too; tomorrow morning we should see our 7th consecutive night in the 60s.  Check out the warm/hot temps today, the hot stuff was from Eugene south.

Todays Observed Highs OrWa 2017

Monday will be MUCH different weatherwise.  If you have something that shouldn’t/can’t get wet, you need to bring it in or cover it before you go to bed tonight.    There is a weak disturbance just offshore, you can see it in the latest GOES-WEST image.  Note a few thunderstorms across the SE quadrant of Oregon too.

sat_6pm

That weak system slides inland late tonight, and all models are showing very light rain showers.  Several bring showers over the Portland metro area as soon as right after sunrise.  A slide show here displays the ECMWF, HRRR, GFS, WRF-GFS, & RPM total rain forecast by Monday evening

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Obviously not a gully-washer, but enough to remind us this July is quite a bit different from recent years. The average temperature so far this month is running quite close to normal, held up by the warm nights due to cloud cover. Still, no sign of 90 degree weather through at least the 21st!

AVG Monthly temp_current vs normal

In general we’ll see quite a bit of cloud cover the next four days, but not much rain.   It’ll feel more like June than July.  That’s because an unusually deep upper-level trough is forecast to sit just to our north Thursday/Friday.  Luckily far enough north to keep most rain up there, but still unusual for mid July.

m500za_f120_bg_NA

The Positives?  Your air conditioning bill should be minimal to non-existent this year, fire danger is low, and our vegetation isn’t stressed.

The Negatives?  My pool will be too cool after today for 4-5 days so not real useful, water sports companies would like to see hotter/sunnier weather, and hot weather veggies grow slowly in this weather.

Most models are showing a warm-up again in time for next weekend and some show heat beginning around the 22nd/23rd.  But they’ve forecast that hot ridge to our east getting closer twice already this month and as we get closer models decide to keep it farther away.  So I have doubts there will be a significant pattern change in the next 8-12 days.  We’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen