Warm & Dry June Turns Cooler Next 10 Days

7pm Tuesday…

Today our weather returned to normal temperature-wise.  That’s follows 9 days of  a mid-summer weather pattern; temps mainly in the 80s & 90s.

High Temp Last 13 Days

Of course this means June is tracking very warm…

Month Climate Temps Calendar

and quite dry.  Only two days with measurable rain through the 18th, that could continue all the way through the 22nd or 23rd I suppose.

Month Climate Rain Calendar Saturday Start

But the last 10-12 days of June sure look cooler.  Or maybe more accurate…

Typical June Weather is On The Way

What’s changing?  More cloud cover and cooler temps is the general story.  For now we have higher than normal upper-level heights over the Pacific Northwest

ecmwf-namer-z500_anom-0859200

But quite a change Thursday as a cold trough of low pressure drops in.

ecmwf-namer-z500_anom-1032000

That’s followed by a 2nd pool of chilly air sitting just offshore or right over us much of next week, starting Tuesday.  These charts are from the ECMWF model for Tuesday and Friday NEXT week.

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It’s not like we’re going to see endless days of rain and highs in the 60s, but expect noticeably cooler weather next week with some showers at times.

Two Big Questions

  1. Will it be dry this weekend?  YES, FOR MOST OF US.  We’ll be in-between that cold system Thursday and the one early next week.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NICER THAN SUNDAY.
  2. How much rain could we see in the next 10 days?  Probably not enough for you to shut off irrigation for crops and lawns.  Maybe enough to back off on your garden veggie watering around the middle/end of next week.  Until that time (through this weekend), I don’t see any significant rain.

Here’s the 10 day total rain forecast from the operational runs of the ECMWF & GFS models.  Both imply 1/2″ or less in most lowland areas (where most of us live west of the Cascades).  Of course more in the mountains.

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Checking the ECMWF ensembles for Salem (middle of the Willamette Valley), the average is around 1/2″ as well.  That’s in green; bottom half of chart.  Notice a few members (top half of chart) are wetter, but some are drier…thus the “average”.

ecmwf-KSLE-indiv_qpf-0859200

To Summarize

  • The next 7-10 days will be near normal to cooler than normal for late June
  • Expect some showers at times, mainly AFTER next Monday
  • No sign of hot weather returning through the end of June

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

12 Responses to Warm & Dry June Turns Cooler Next 10 Days

  1. boydo3 says:

    Forest fires in Alaska. I don’t remember hearing much about that when I was younger but now it seems like a regular event.
    http://smoke.alaska.edu/current_fires.html

    • Jakeos7 says:

      Did you google “Current Alaska wildfires” when you were younger or just read the local paper? It’s pretty hard to compare what happened in remote locations over multiple years when there was such limited information at that time.

  2. Roland Derksen says:

    It looked for a while last evening as if we’d get some possible showers or thundershowers here, but not a drop to see or feel. It’s getting very dry- my maple tree is losing leaves every day.

  3. Andy says:

    The Timberline cams show a couple of inches of snow this morning. Looks like a cold trough setting up with more unsettled weather next week. I still think our weather swings back and forth in extremes lately.So I still think we will most likely hit 100 in July. That’s my gut feeling.

  4. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    0.02″ so far, my first measurable rain since the 8th. 51 degrees. At least it’s light out early!

  5. Nice PSCZ setting up this evening. It’s giving me a good soaking.

  6. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    67 today after a low of 46. Finally a more typical June.

  7. Roland Derksen says:

    It’s really quite windy here this morning- gusty west/south-west winds up to 35mph or maybe higher. I am worried somewhat if this wind persists all day. We could see some trees damaged, due to the winds and the ongoing dry conditions.

  8. PAUL D says:

    Very nice! I feel vindicated for those nasty near 100 days we had. Going to thoroughly enjoy it!

  9. Anonymous says:

    BUT IS IT SAFE TO STAIN MY DECK THIS WEEKEND??

  10. JERAT416 says:

    Love it! No need for a heat wave. This will be great to enjoy the outdoors. Hiking, biking, working in the yard or garden, etc. A+ from me.

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