July Weather Next 10 Days; Includes A Midweek Scorcher

9pm Sunday…

Quite a change the last few days.  Most of us were in the 50s and lower 60s with showers/thunderstorms Friday.  Yesterday was a clouds to sunshine day; good news for for Grand Floral Parade day.  Temps rose 5-10 degrees. Then another 10 degrees warming today brought temps well above average once again:

High Temp Last 13 Days

The big picture says we’re going to be quite warm for the next 10 days or so.  From the ECMWF model you see upper-level heights (ridging in this case) above average through the next 15 days.  The three images represent Days 1-5, 6-11, and 11-15.  That takes us through the first three weeks of June.

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Looks to me like it’s going to be our 7th June with average to above average temps.  Those three cold Junes 2010-2012 seem like a long time ago now.

June Month In Review

What about rain?  Little or none in the next 10 days.  Each line on the top half of this chart shows one ensemble member.  Quite a few show less than .10″ in the next 15 days!  This may be the beginning of the dry season.  If so, it’s going to be a long one again…

ecmwf-KPDX-indiv_qpf_24-0081600

And well below average rain the next 15-16 days forecast by both ECMWF and GFS ensemble systems.  Wet weather continues across the saturated central/eastern USA.

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In the short term, tomorrow should be similar to today, but up a few degrees.  Then the big change is a switch to easterly wind Tuesday through Wednesday midday.   You can see it circled on the WRF-GFS cross-section over Portland.  The 11/12 along bottom axis = June 11th at 5am, and 12/12 = June 12th at 5am.

Capture

 

At the same time 850mb temps rise up to +21 or +22 over Salem.  According to my chart, based on past similar setups, we should see high temps both days between 95-100 degrees.  Cooling onshore flow doesn’t arrive until Wednesday evening after peak heating.  Whew!

Luckily a quick cooling overhead along with low-level onshore flow should drop us into the 80s Thursday and then down around 80 Friday.  This won’t be a many days-long heatwave.  Still, daily record highs will probably fall both Tuesday/Wednesday

Mark Hot 3 Day PDX Forecast2

Stay cool!  Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

30 Responses to July Weather Next 10 Days; Includes A Midweek Scorcher

  1. Tanis Leach says:

    Got to 97 in Corvallis. Now starting to cool off.

  2. W7ENK says:

    CU, bordering on Cb to the SSE over the foothills, and some CU starting to pop just to the South of downtown, looks like maybe Tigard… 🤔

  3. runrain says:

    The morning high clouds moved north but I see more moving in from the southwest. Also, CU building rapidly over central Cascades. Would be nice to at least see a light show tonight. Finally, still no marine clouds along the coast. Maybe not as much cooling coming the next couple days?

  4. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    Wow we were heating up real fast but now winds have started to switch and we won’t be heating much more.

  5. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    If this ridge had stayed in place for another day or two we definately would have had a chance to beat the all time June record of 102.

    • Tanis Leach says:

      What I find ironic of the all time June record is that it’s just 2 degrees over the May record of 100.

  6. W7ENK says:

    Looking at these clouds this morning, I don’t think a lack of moisture is going to be a problem as far as thunderstorms go for this afternoon/evening. On the contrary, I think these high clouds might take the edge off today’s peak heating, which may prove detrimental to the formation of thunderstorms until after sunset. I doubt today ends up as hot as yesterday, I’m thinking maybe 89-93, somewhere in there. Depends on what these clouds do.

    We shall see…

  7. PAUL D says:

    MISSING: overnight lows. If you’ve seen them, please return them to the Portland area. Thank you.

  8. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Why is it 70 degrees out and the sun is about to RISE?

  9. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    The one thing I hate more than the heat is the AM clouds PM sun pattern. 😦 And it looks like that’s sticking with us for a while.

    • Gene says:

      Unfortunately for you, those two weather patterns are pretty much all we get during the summer months — a few days of heat, followed by days of morning clouds/afternoon sun. Then more heat, followed again by morning clouds/afternoon sun. Repeat for 3-4 months . . .

      • Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

        True. I just wish we could either have sun or rain. Just make a decision mother nature!

  10. W7ENK says:

    I know I’ve said this many times before to no avail, but once again it looks like we have a pretty significant shot at some decent thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening/night.

    SPC is on it:

    WRF-GFS shows some really nice CAPE over Portland Metro and the Willamette Valley starting around 11am tomorrow. Then by mid-afternoon it just explodes!

    2pm

    5pm

      • I hope it does materialize for you guys; it would be compensation for missing out on so many snowstorms last winter.

        • W7ENK says:

          😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂

          Oh, that so sweet of you! But Mother Nature is a raving lunatic. She doesn’t keep tabs, she enjoys screwing us out of the fun stuff.

          Mark my words though, shiz is gonna get cray for a whole month after this coming weekend. Hold onto your butts!!

    • Andy says:

      I would love to see an outbreak tomorrow. The problem is moisture. I’m crossing my fingers for some towering thunder storms in the area with our short heat wave.

      • W7ENK says:

        It’s looking like this might be elevated convection, high-based thunderstorms. Southern and Central Oregon Cascades look to get absolutely clobbered, with storms moving due North along the mountains throughout the day. Worst case scenario, we see towering CB to the East with high altitude blowoff extending out over the Valley, but all the action stays to our East, and we get a light show over the mountains after sunset. Best case scenario, the flood of marine air rushing Northward provides a catalyst that triggers thunderstorms as it collides with the hot air in the Valley, and we all get in on the action around sunset.

        Last ditch scenario, nothing pops until the upper atmosphere cools in the overnight, and any residual daytime heat at the surface punches up and storms fire after 11pm.

        Yeah, I’m wishcasting…

        And sadly, the most recent model run takes everything out into Central and Eastern Oregon. BOOO!!

  11. Tanis Leach says:

    Heat advisory has been issued. Lows in the mid 60s seem a little high though.

  12. K says:

    I’m 100% sure that as we start getting into more record heat and dry period the summer lovers will start gnashing their teeth- but I could be wrong! Time will tell.

  13. W7ENK says:

    Welcome Summer! 🌞

  14. Roland Derksen says:

    A bit of a surprise this morning; Cloudy skies and a light ‘spitting” of rain. That’s all gone now, and starting this afternoon we’re going to see it get warm- even up here in BC!

  15. PAUL D says:

    Nasty hot! Go away August – it’s only June! 😦

    • W7ENK says:

      Its June, it’s Summer now. This is not out of the ordinary, it’s to be expected. You’ve had the last 9 months to prepare yourself for this, so suck it up, buttercup!

    • Roland Derksen says:

      They don’t make Junes like they used to, Paul. I was just remembering this date back in 1976; It was my ceremonial grad night from high school. Quite the different weather back then: Overcast with light rain all day, temperature 54F for a maximum. I actually shivered in my suit as I walked into the auditorium!

  16. boydo3 says:

    Sure does seem like the dry season has begun. We had a wet winter and early spring here on the south coast once it got going. But it has been dry for several weeks other than the .10″ a couple days ago. Should see temps around 65-72 for the next few days. No rain in sight!

  17. Tanis Leach says:

    First. Glad you came up on Sunday. My personal forcast for Corvallis:

    88 Monday
    95 Tuesday
    97 Wednesday

  18. Pat says:

    Summer weather for sure!

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