Warm & Dry Start For June

6pm Wednesday…

We’re quickly approaching the end of May; it’s been a warm month!  Today we got rid of the marine clouds early leading to a much warmer day

Todays Observed Highs OrWa 2017

Check out the May stats so far…

Month Climate Temps Calendar

Notice only two days were cooler than average, and of course that first full week of the month was like July weatherwise.  Memories of cool/wet springs have faded (for now) west of the Cascades; we haven’t seen a cool/wet May in 7 years!  Check out rainfall as a percent of normal across the West.  We are alone in western Oregon and Washington.  Most of the West has been quite wet.  Check out those spots in the Southwest with 4X the typical May rain!

anomimage (1)

The setup this spring hasn’t changed all that much since late winter (February).  Ridging to the west and northwest of us, and troughing (a dip in the jet stream) over the rest of the western USA.

Capture

By the way, this is also the reason for the persistent stormy pattern across Tornado Alley.  A southwesterly jet moving across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley plus cool air pushing across the Plains from time to time.  Lots of moisture = flooding and big thunderstorms.

So what’s ahead for Portland and other areas west of the Cascades?

  1. Little or no rain through at least NEXT Wednesday.  Of course a thick marine layer can produce drizzle, but that’s all I see.
  2. Temperatures remain above average over the next week.  Marine layer depth will influence whether we have a high of 70 or as warm as lower 80s at times.
  3. All clear weatherwise for Starlight Parade and Timbers home opener Saturday.  Thorns game should be great as well Sunday.
  4. Time to plant the rest of your warm weather veggies if you haven’t yet.  It’s okay even in the foothills where it’s cooler/wetter than the cities.

The weather pattern evolves just a bit over the next week.  For now there is a strong upper-level ridge sitting just to our north.  That’s the reason we’re seeing early fires in British Columbia and Alberta; you’ve probably noticed the hazy skies?

ecm_thursday

By Saturday the ridge is a bit stronger and more directly overhead.

ecm_sat

By next Tuesday (in this example using the GEM) the ridge is still there, but “flattened” a bit.   This is a classic early summer weather pattern; no hot weather but temps above average and dry.

tuesday_gem

I have high confidence with the dry spell, see the GFS ensemble rain outlook for the next 15 days.  Each horizontal line is one of the ensemble members.  The total at the bottom (in green) is the average of all those members.    Notice only a few produce showers late next week or weekend of 8th/9th.

gfs-KPDX-indiv_qpf-9152800

The ECMWF is similar; no ensemble member produces rain until at least next Thursday.  This model is a bit wetter right around the Grand Floral Parade day (8th).

ecmwf-KPDX-indiv_qpf_24-9131200

Enjoy the dry start to June, hopefully we can get one more (brief) soaking before we get to July.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

6 Responses to Warm & Dry Start For June

  1. W7ENK says:

    Little bit of rain this morning, slightly more than just drizzle. It was enough to make the streets wet and warrant the use of my windshield wipers.

    Probably just some fallout from the marine stratus…

  2. PAUL D says:

    Sure wish we would get a little rain each week. Oh well…. the new norm is here to stay.

    • Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

      I can’t believe there are already wildfires!

      Definately not looking forward to the hot and smoky summers….

  3. JERAT416 says:

    I’m loving this weather. I hope we can stay below 85 for another month, but that’s just me. The rain was welcome and helped a lot after the last heat wave. I hope everyone is also enjoying this.

  4. JohnD says:

    Great analysis Mark–as always; and appreciated! A few showers at Clear Lake near Sisters when we were there over Memorial Day. But generally not bad! More great hiking weather ahead!

  5. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I hope we have more of these warm but not hot days. Seems the last several years we go from winter to summer and we don’t get those really pleasant days (around 80).

    Also sitting at 2″ of rain for the month, vs. last May’s 0.20″. Nice to have things green and not at July status already.

%d bloggers like this: