9:30pm Update: It’s Happening! Snow in East & North Metro

As mentioned in the midday post, sure enough a mild southerly wind developed and is keeping about 1/2 of the metro area south of the Columbia River and West Hills well above freezing.

That warmer part of the metro has only seen a snow/rain mix or just plain rain depending on your location.  Lack of that mild wind has brought 1/2″ to 1″ in areas around Scappose, St. Helens, and earlier around Battle Ground, all on the north side of the metro area.  La Center (at 600′) picked up 3″ so far.  Now I see I-84 covered in snow east of I-205.

i84@207th_pid1581

And now some good news if you want real snow.  That will be the maximum extent of the southerly wind.  From here on out through the night it backs off.  Right now easterly flow is picking up through the Gorge.  It’s snowing in much of the eastern metro area.  That includes Happy Valley, Gresham, Camas, Troutdale, Damascus, and Oregon City.  Remember that ECMWF model I showed earlier (and other models) had the cold easterly wind taking over after 10pm or so, that should change much of the metro area over to snow as we head toward midnight and beyond.

Our forecast remains the same for all areas.  No need to update any of these

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The final model run (before this event) of WRF-GFS from UW show just about the same thing, some areas of 2″+ snow in metro.  But most areas less than 2″ (or even less) in the Willamette Valley.

wrfsnow_4pmSat

HRRR model is somewhat similar with some parts of metro getting less than 2″ out of this event.

Hrrr_1pm_snow

We’ll see how it ends up overnight.  The main change will be increasing cold easterly wind blowing out of the Gorge bringing some drifting snow east of I-205 and eventually into the West Hills too by morning.

QUICK LOOK AHEAD

There has been lots of talk about a possible snow event Sunday night and Monday.  There is no guarantee that’s going to happen.  In fact both the evening GEM and GFS models put is into a mild southerly wind from later Sunday night through Tuesday.  That could possibly leave the Willamette Valley and Portland metro area with mainly rain through that event.   After we finish up this event tomorrow afternoon I’ll take a closer look at that of course.  No reason to get all wound up about a third snow event that may not even happen!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

103 Responses to 9:30pm Update: It’s Happening! Snow in East & North Metro

  1. No Snow says:

    Bust-O-Rama baby! Fork it. Winter is over. It actually never started in the first place.

  2. Ken in Sheridan says:

    Got home from work about midnight this morning with steady rain south wind 35 degrees… stayed up to 2AM, noticed the S wind stopped.. light sloppy snow started. Got up at 7AM East wind with soft light flurries and 33.6 …… about 1.5 inches on the ground .. looking real pretty like! Nice surprise. I’m content …”since I’ve no place to go. let it snow ,let it snow, let it snow …. 9 AM still 33.8 temp. Fair but tough forecast, Mark … Thanks

  3. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Well Mark and the NWS where pretty spot on. Some of the other new stations and that ridiculous “Storm of the Century” from WW where completely off base.

    It looks more like we’ll have a few more snow-to-rain or rain-to-snow shots through the week. Seems to me most the snow potential will stay in the east and north sides of town like last night.

    After a lot of wishcasting the pros where dead on. The stations going for ratings are eating crow right now.

  4. ocpaul says:

    1.5″ @ 349′ in OC Monday-Tuesday sounds like #!¿¢*

  5. ron says:

    About 1.5 inches—top of the hill in Astoria, 240 feet.

  6. slaviklungu says:

    SW Troutdale (300ft): 4 inches!

    Spot on per Mark’s prediction for the east metro.

  7. PDXTREEGUY says:

    6″ in Columbia county at 750′.

  8. JohnD says:

    Mark was spot on as usual. Looking forward to his next overview. All about the Gorge. We lived in East County for a lot of years. Now in inner PDX. Just a dusting here but scenic. 28.7′ . Gonna take a MAX ride East to sightsee later!

  9. weatherduck83 says:

    This went from ‘historic 5 day stretch’ to some epic backpedaling pretty darn quickly. Looks like east metro scored out of this one at least thanks to the gorge influence, but sounds like Mark is thinking rain now for what was supposed to be the main event Sun night-Tues and possibly beyond. Oh well!

  10. alohabb says:

    Looking more and more like an elevation event moving forward.

    • weatherduck83 says:

      Just a trace to 1/2” at around 360ft west hills, so that tiny bit of elevation didn’t help much.

  11. PAUL D says:

    Complete bust in Hillsboro. We have a few ice pellets on the deck. Otherwise it’s clear. What a disappointment.

  12. Anonymous says:

    5″ of snow overnight and 29 degrees east of Oregon City.

  13. 26.9F, NE 4, 8” new, 11” on ground, snowing…

  14. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    Man, if this isn’t some “Dome rage” situation, I don’t know what is. My neighborhood has less than 1/4″ everywhere. Next to nothing sticking in grass or trees or 90% of roofs. Some on cars and fences. But looking all around on the cameras show that there’s at least easily viewable, to actually pretty good, snow. So for my exact area the forecast overnight way off, would call it a bust…

    However, all over the area? Definitely not a bust. Also, when I mean “Dome rage” I don’t mean me raging about the dome, I mean that the dome has a personal vendetta against someone in my neighborhood and I’d almost be willing to put money down on that person being me.

    Please forgive me dome. I didn’t want epic snow for the workweek, but I did want to see some last night. Now it’s just very wet roads; hello ice skating rink… Significantly worse.

    Anyone know how to appease the dome? Sacrifice of SnoCones? Or would it be a good idea to offer it some reaper peppers and hot sauces? You know, make it think it wants something really cold and frozen to fight the burning sensation?

  15. G DE DOMINGO says:

    The bulk of the moisture was last night and therefore the chance of additional snow accumulation remains low on the west side of the metro area. Also, the outside temps are ( as 7.54 am) above freezing at 1000’ indicating that the air is warming up quickly. As far as Sunday night and Monday, too warm upper air to see any snow accumulation even in the eastern side of the metro.

  16. Oregon City (450 ft) says:

    1.5″ here. The forecasts within 24 hours were pretty accurate for metro south. Disappointing based on earlier models/forecasts, but I guess it’s tough predicting the micro-climates around here.

  17. Meg says:

    Woke up to 8.5″ in Camas @ 100ft

  18. Echard says:

    Sherwood 675′ 30° – About an inch on the ground with temp dropping throughout the morning. Pleasantly surprised with possibly more bands coming up from the south.

    • alohabb says:

      I was just showing my kids this a few days ago. Too funny. I will say that west side saw lots of rain last night and temp dropped to 29 with a east wind of 5-7. So everything’s freezing up on the roads.

  19. Phil in Beaverton says:

    No snow here in Central Beaverton.

  20. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Epic bust number one is official. Not even a millimeter here. Epic busts 2 and 3 coming up on Monday morning and Monday evening/Tuesday.

  21. alohabb says:

    Seriously, there is a serious line between snow and no snow, that being the west hills. Washington county is an ice rink with a gusty east wind now. But not even a single flake.

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