Those 12 Days of Christmas? Looking Quiet Weather-Wise

7pm Wednesday…

Merry Christmas to all!  Hope you had a great holiday and enjoy this fun Christmas Week leading up to the New Year.

I’m confident the weather won’t be affecting your plans much.

Why?

Because after some briefly exciting weather mid-month things are back to “slow” once again which has been the story since early November.  Mild too.  This December is running 8th warmest of the past 75+ years at PDX.

Here’s what I see as we head through these 12 days of Christmas (through Friday the 4th):

  • No sign of arctic cold or low-elevation snow
  • No sign of freezing rain in the metro area
  • No big storms with high winds or flooding

We have just ONE organized warm/cold frontal system coming through Saturday through early Sunday.  Even that one isn’t very impressive, but will give us a nice shot of Saturday night rain and mountain snow.   There are hints another organized system could come through about a week from tomorrow too.

Note the ECMWF meteogram shows nothing interesting temp-wise (unusually warm OR cold) the next 15 days.  This is the average of all 51 ensemble members:

KPDX_2018122612_eps_min_max_15

Far more interesting from a meteorological standpoint is that NONE of those ensemble members show snow in Portland during the next two weeks.  The point here is that we seem to be in weak upper-level ridging and/or a splitty/weak jet stream for the next 10-15 days.  On any typical winter day I’ll see at least a few of those horizontal lines showing some snow at some point during the next two weeks.  That shows there is good agreement on an average to above-average temperature regime to start January.

KPDX_2018122612_eps24_snow_360

That said I don’t see a dry east wind setup to give us significant sunshine until next Monday; we’ll be seeing plenty of gray tomorrow through the weekend.

This IS turning out to be a typical weak/moderate El Nino cool season in our area…a bit drier and warmer than average.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

40 Responses to Those 12 Days of Christmas? Looking Quiet Weather-Wise

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    Sunset today now at 5:40 PM. Whatever the rest of Winter brings time marches on. Peace.

  2. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Thursday’s storm looks kind of interesting on the 12Z Euro. 🙂

  3. Winds are howling at times, rain is blowing sideways, nice not a storm we are having.

    Rain barrel is full. Ts been an interesting season this time around.

    Now a history lesson.
    In what year was there declared a year with out a summer? And by which volcanic eruption was it that created such a year?
    Hint. It is erupting as we speak.

    • K says:

      There’s actually a bit of an inaccuracy in your question. The volcano erupting right now is known as Anak Krakatau (Child of Krakatoa). This volcano is not the one that created “The Year Without Summer”, nor its parent volcano Krakatoa.

      Rather, “The Year Without Summer” occurred in 1815 and was mostly caused by the massive eruption of Mount Tambora, which is close to Krakatoa and Anak Krakatau, but definitely not the same volcano.

  4. W7ENK says:

    Well, for a day that was supposed to have an inch of rain and 40 mph wind gusts, this sunshine has sure been nice.

  5. JohnD says:

    Some are predicting that imminent oscillations in the “polar vortex” could evolve into some dramatic weather events in parts of the lower 48 sooner than later. Anyone buying into that?

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      What would that mean for the PNW? I mean, we really haven’t seen anything really major here.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      If it does, it will impact the eastern 2/3rds of the country like always.

    • Andy says:

      Weatherbell has mentioned big changes happening mid to late January. The question will be how will it affect the NW. They are real bullish on the East and Midwest. The problem with some of the longer range forecasts for us was high pressure dumping cold air to the east. I hope we have a shot at some real winter weather later January and February. Past years it seems are cold and snow patterns come late. We still have hope.

  6. Well, the snow showers vanished from the forecast for NYE. Now forecast to be dry. But there’s a Wind Advisory up for tomorrow. Windstorm No. 3? We shall see. It’s only an advisory, not a watch or warning, so doesn’t sound as strong as last week’s storm.

  7. GTS1Kft says:

    Nothing screams “holidays” like this 39,4 degree rain.

    So festive

    • Oh, the weather outside is crappy,
      And I don’t want to disturb your nappy,
      But here’s some eggnog to sip.
      Let it drip, let it drip, let it drip.

      • Roland Derksen says:

        I can’t wait for this year (let alone the month of December) to end. Another rainy drippy day up here! I’ll get a record for wettest recorded December in 45 years for sure. Could also end up being my second wettest year (after 1990). I’m expecting to total it up to about 68 soggy inches. And all of this despite having 3 months with less than 1 inch altogether!

  8. NWS now has snow showers in the forecast for my area on New Year’s Eve.

    • Roland Derksen says:

      Some mixed rain and snow here right now with the temperature at about 36F. Can’t see it accumulate though, unless it really comes down heavy.

      • Longview 400 ft says:

        Well, at least you are getting some kind of snow. Better than most of us. LOL

        • Roland Derksen says:

          Yes, for a while this afternoon it was coming down pretty good. The temperature dropped to 34F around 1:30pm, and some slush started to stick to the ground in spots. But now it’s just rain again.

  9. Kyle says:

    Geez it couldn’t POSSIBLY have anything to do with the tons of ice being dumped into Fukushima reactor DAILY since 2013 or whenever they decided to start doing it. They were originally g

    Without ice we can’t have Artic air or any kind of cool air. Airmasses are reflective of their origins. If whatever is going on in their Origins is screwed up then the resulting airm asses will be too.

  10. Paul D says:

    If my lawn needs mowing again the first week of February, I’m going to be REALLY grumpy!

  11. WEATHERDAN says:

    This is now our 21st straight month in Salem without measurable snow. Bet we make it to at least 32 straight months. Can’t wait for a hot Summer. Peace.

  12. Roland Derksen says:

    Yawn… looks like another boring January coming up.

  13. Any one else’s dogs shedding early? I think we may be in for an early spring .

  14. February is when i think we may get some snow.

  15. Jeff Vifquain says:

    El Ninio are u there…The blob is that you…where’s winter?…cricket’s!!!…pattern change…don’t bet the ranch on it…

  16. boydo3 says:

    At least some blog snow would help!

  17. JERAT416 says:

    No fork for me yet! February 2014 snow and ice happen right after Mark got the fork out.

  18. Emmanuel says:

    It’s been a long time since we had three years in a row with over 6 inches of snow I really thought this would be the year not looking good though

  19. JohnD says:

    Simply sad.

  20. alohabb says:

    Put a fork in it already. Lol.

    Looking at Palm Springs flights now cause these 45 degree days stink.

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