Those 12 Days of Christmas? Looking Quiet Weather-Wise

December 26, 2018

7pm Wednesday…

Merry Christmas to all!  Hope you had a great holiday and enjoy this fun Christmas Week leading up to the New Year.

I’m confident the weather won’t be affecting your plans much.

Why?

Because after some briefly exciting weather mid-month things are back to “slow” once again which has been the story since early November.  Mild too.  This December is running 8th warmest of the past 75+ years at PDX.

Here’s what I see as we head through these 12 days of Christmas (through Friday the 4th):

  • No sign of arctic cold or low-elevation snow
  • No sign of freezing rain in the metro area
  • No big storms with high winds or flooding

We have just ONE organized warm/cold frontal system coming through Saturday through early Sunday.  Even that one isn’t very impressive, but will give us a nice shot of Saturday night rain and mountain snow.   There are hints another organized system could come through about a week from tomorrow too.

Note the ECMWF meteogram shows nothing interesting temp-wise (unusually warm OR cold) the next 15 days.  This is the average of all 51 ensemble members:

KPDX_2018122612_eps_min_max_15

Far more interesting from a meteorological standpoint is that NONE of those ensemble members show snow in Portland during the next two weeks.  The point here is that we seem to be in weak upper-level ridging and/or a splitty/weak jet stream for the next 10-15 days.  On any typical winter day I’ll see at least a few of those horizontal lines showing some snow at some point during the next two weeks.  That shows there is good agreement on an average to above-average temperature regime to start January.

KPDX_2018122612_eps24_snow_360

That said I don’t see a dry east wind setup to give us significant sunshine until next Monday; we’ll be seeing plenty of gray tomorrow through the weekend.

This IS turning out to be a typical weak/moderate El Nino cool season in our area…a bit drier and warmer than average.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen