Stormy Late Tonight & Messy Tuesday AM Commute

11:30am…

Just a quick update to let you know we’re still expecting a nice little wind/rain storm overnight and into Tuesday morning.  I just checked morning models/maps and everything still looks the same.

Gusty wind develops this evening in the valleys and continue through the night.  Plus moderate to heavy rain will likely fall right during the Tuesday morning commute from Kelso to Salem.  Bad timing.

KEY POINTS

  1. Light rain arrives late this afternoon and continues through the night, turning heavy around 4-8am in the Portland metro area.  We could see .20-.30″ hourly totals for a few hours.  For comparison, that MAX flooding situation in October 2015 we saw several hours of .20″ then a sudden .50″ in one hour.  We could see some local flooding of roads/underpasses during the heaviest rainfall.
  2. A breezy southerly wind develops around and beyond sunset.  Gusts 30-40 mph are possible anytime during the night, then wind should be strongest sometime between 1am-7am.  I expect gusts 40-50 mph in the western valleys from Vancouver to Eugene.  This is similar to what we saw on Friday and we’ll definitely get some power outages. Maybe not as strong up at Kelso though.  Coastal gusts will be in the 50-65 mph range; of course the higher exposed spots will be stronger.
  3. Wind will die off quickly after 7am, then rain turns to showers by midday.

 

Check out the WRF-GFS meteogram, you see the 30 kt sustained wind over Portland around 4am, plus the hourly .30″ or so total around 7am (bottom graph).

kpdx.mg

ECMWF gives us about 1.5″ rain from now to Tuesday afternoon.  This isn’t typically a big issue, the problem is that much of that will fall from 3am-10am.  It’s about rain intensity, not total quantity.

ecmwf_10am_totalprecip

And finally the WRF-GFS giving us .60″ in three hours ending at 7am.

oc_pcp3.27.0000

So again, as mentioned in yesterday evening’s post, this isn’t a “big storm”, but timing of rain/wind is bad for that Tuesday morning commute.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

22 Responses to Stormy Late Tonight & Messy Tuesday AM Commute

  1. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Am I reading the 00Z NAM right? It looks like it wants to give the Portland area 50+ mph around noon tomorrow? I’m not sure if that’s right. If someone could look at that I would appreciate it.

  2. Raining felines and canines out there. Gonna be a real soaker.

  3. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Someone had a link to a website that had places that you could see the wind speed around the Portland area. I use to have it but I got a new laptop a few months ago and don’t have that site anymore. Could someone post the link for me.

    Thank you

  4. runrain says:

    Wind suddenly ramping up here in Happy Valley. Was calm 10 min ago Maybe gusting 25 now.

  5. ron says:

    Moderate rain and gusty winds now along the north coast. A good night to stay indoors.

  6. Kyle J Hill says:

    Frankly I’m just glad we are not having any big ‘smokey’ solar eclipses like we had for half of the summer. Ironically that kept our highs from going to the 105F category several times.

  7. Kyle J Hill says:

    The Euro is the pay model but since it’s pay not free it has more info put in then the GFS which is what you get for free (tax payer) funded. 🙂 The GFS especially refuses to put in the post 2013 changes and expects things to behave like old. Sorry but no. Too many changes have happened.

  8. Kyle J Hill says:

    If I recall right the Euro (as usual) was the winner of the last storm saying what it was. The GFS (Garbage Forecasting System) needs to be taken with a grain of salt or as a last member. The Euro is still showing decent winds around 50 with exposed hilly areas up to 60mph at times.

  9. W7ENK says:

    AREAL FLOOD WATCH
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    228 PM PST MON DEC 17 2018

    FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

    https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=28281269

  10. alohabb says:

    So going over Hwy 6 to Tillamook at 5am Might not be fun.

  11. runrain says:

    Barometer now falling, winds southerly at Newport gusting to 30mph. Oh, and the sun is now gone in PDX.

  12. GTS1Kft says:

    The Friday wind event was a bit of a bust

    It could happen again, windwise – the rain seems like a lock…

  13. Andrew Bartholomew says:

    I’m a little curious about Mark’s comment that this isn’t a big storm. I don’t recall many instances over past few years where we saw rain/wind predictions this intense. I know it’s not like Columbus Day storm territory or anything like that, but is it fair to say this is more of a once-in-a-season type event, or are we really just all inflating our expectations because it’s been such a boring fall/winter so far? Is this just a variation of normal? Haha. I just don’t know excited to get for some real weather. The Friday wind event was a bit of a bust.

    • Jake in Gresham says:

      To my untrained eye the GFS and NAM now seem to show a potential for beak gusts of 60mph for the Willamette valley. I don’t know if that’s true but that is edging into the interesting category.

      One thing is for sure. It’ll be a white knuckle drive for the morning commute as Mr. Nelson warned.

      I told family with far commutes to go in late or just take the day off. Hydroplaning ballerinas will be out in full force.

    • W7ENK says:

      Prepare for disappointment, just to be on the safe side. There seems to be a stable layer below 1000 feet that looks as though it will keep the winds overhead and not allow them to mix down to the surface. This may be one of those storms where you can hear the ominous roar of the wind overhead, but down in the trees it’ll just be light breezes. Might see some gusts into the 30s in spots below a thousand feet, but I wouldn’t expect widespread gusts much above that.

      Of course, that could all change…

  14. Anonymous says:

    Guess I will miss this one, not staying up all night for some breezy rain showers.

  15. Tanis Leach says:

    Coats are for noobs. (XC joke)

    Unforntunatly minimal mountain snow under 5500 feet. Otherwise a nice storm.

  16. K says:

    Fun storm! I’m excited 🙂

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