9pm Update: A Few Tweaks To Forecast

All the evening weather models are in except the ECMWF.  If you didn’t read my midday post read that first.

The biggest change I see is the front moving across our area more quickly tonight.  That means:

  1. Forecast rain isn’t quite as heavy = maybe only a few scattered spots of roadway flooding if we get lucky!
  2. Gusty southerly wind in the valleys is a bit lighter and moves south of us more quickly.  I changed the forecast to 35-45 mph gusts in the valley.  North of the Columbia River (Clark County) I doubt it’ll gust much over 30.

Peak wind still appears to be around 1-4am in the metro area and valleys, but again, THIS ISN’T GOING TO BE A BIG WINDSTORM.  Just a few power outages here and there.

Warnings Wind Coast Valleys2

Here’s the 1am RPM wind gust forecast:

RPM_1am

Notice the RPM model has all the gusty wind south of Salem by the time we get to the morning commute; looks pretty quiet in the Portland metro area.

RPM_5am

And here’s the WRF-GFS with its lighter rainfall forecast.  A bit over an inch in the western valleys.

wrf_24hrain

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

47 Responses to 9pm Update: A Few Tweaks To Forecast

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    BUST
    But the ski areas got some more snow than expected.

  2. W7ENK says:

    Tornado in Port Orchard, WA. Posted 28 mins ago.

    Video Credit: Matthew Hargis

  3. Tanis Leach says:

    At my house in Sherwood, I had .70″ of rain on Monday and so far today I’ve had 1.33″

  4. Roland Derksen says:

    We had some pretty gusty winds here last night (up to 40mph) in contrast to last Friday night’s no-show. Looks like Thursday could be a significantly windy day as well.

  5. W7ENK says:

    NWS has canceled all products.

    HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED

    ORZ001-003-181445-
    /O.CAN.KPQR.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181218T1400Z/
    North Oregon Coast-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-
    533 AM PST Tue Dec 18 2018

    WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED

    ORZ006-181700-
    /O.CAN.KPQR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-181218T1600Z/
    Greater Portland Metro Area-
    751 AM PST Tue Dec 18 2018

    WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED

    ORZ007-008-181700-
    /O.CAN.KPQR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-181218T2000Z/
    Central Willamette Valley-South Willamette Valley-
    751 AM PST Tue Dec 18 2018

    FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED

    ORZ001>005-014>016-WAZ020>022-039-040-045-046-181945-
    /O.CAN.KPQR.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-181220T0000Z/
    /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    North Oregon Coast-Central Oregon Coast-
    Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-
    Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Lower Columbia-
    Upper Hood River Valley-Western Columbia River Gorge-
    Central Columbia River Gorge-Willapa Hills-South Washington Coast-
    I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area-
    South Washington Cascade Foothills-
    1033 AM PST Tue Dec 18 2018

  6. W7ENK says:

    Maximum wind speed at PDX last night was 21 mph, with a gust to 33 mph during the 4am hour.

    :YAWN:

  7. 1.09″ since yesterday afternoon here. Pressure is 1006 mbar and starting to rise after a low of 1004 earlier this morning. Starting to get blustery as well.

  8. W7ENK says:

    Heard folks on the Westside last night saying it was “rockin and rollin” over there around midnight. Wind was a major bust on the Eastside, I had a peak gust of a whopping 11 mph just a little before 1am, but overall it just remainied dead calm all night long. I guess that stable cap never broke over here and the winds just rode right up and over the top of us, kinda like I was saying yesterday. We just weren’t able to mix the winds down to the surface at all. Pretty disappointing.

    Rainfall was decent.
    0.48″ yesterday between 3pm and midnight.
    0.92″ so far this morning.

    Still not quite the 3 inches they were predicting, but there’s still about an hour or so left before the back edge passes through.

    Overhyped, as usual.

  9. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I think we should move one and talk about the next storm. Thursdays storm is so close to being a windstorm. What this storm has is it’s coming from the South to SW and moves North to NE. We normally get some good windstorms from that direction. All it needs to do is move a little more East before heading up to Vancouver Island. It’s another wait and see were that low goes.

    Now, I’m surprised no one has said anything about the 00Z Euro. I know it’s 10 days out but it’s very interesting to see around the 27th cool to cold air in our area. It looks like highs could be in the mid-to-upper 30’s. Just something to watch for the next couple of days 🙂

  10. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    If this doesn’t qualify as stormy, I don’t know what does besides a hurricane. Tree limbs and debris all over, power out, stuff bouncing off the roof, moderate/heavy steady rain.

  11. alohabb says:

    Meh, not much other than a rainy blustery night with some good gusts.

  12. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I just had a wind gust. Not sure how strong tho. I looked at the weather station for Troutdale and the winds have finally shifted to the SW. I also see the barometer is down to 29.67 inches. I looked at it at 2:30 am and it was at 29.75 inches. It sure did drop fast in a short amount of time.

  13. I have a fan running to drown out the wind and rain…i hope to get some sleep.

  14. K says:

    What the flying fallacies is with the models recently? EURO, NAM, GFS are all going for gusts above 40, yet no wind, yet. I think it might be earlier in the morning, but there’s still something weird going on. Namely, the EURO loves showing gusts in the mid 50s for PDX tomorrow at 4 AM.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      I said something about the 00Z NAM showing 50+ mph in our area at 12Z tomorrow. Can you look at that K? At least that is what I thought I saw.

      • K says:

        NAM shows some 50 gusts in PDX at about 10Z tomorrow. But EURO is my main concern, showing 50-60 mph gusts in PDX early tomorrow morning.

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          I think what’s happening is the cold front hasn’t come through. I think we are still in the warm sector of the warm front. Maybe when the cold front starts coming through then the winds will pick up. It’s just a thought.

        • Muxpux (Castle Rock) says:

          Looking at the satellite loops, it looks like an area of circulation has developed along the front. My guess is as this strengthens and rides along the front onshore, winds will pick up with its passing.

          I could be completely wrong though. We’ll see when we wake up.

      • If there Using Windows 10, that could explain a few things..
        On the more serious side.
        Maybe they need less models telling them what is what.
        Got t9 1 model.i think they are over teching weather.

  15. Well i am going to try and get some sleep.
    Hope we dont have any flying objects to night lol.
    Any who good night, and Mark, no hard feelings..but…them models..they have a few bugs in them…are you guys still using super computers? Or are you relying on slower smaller systems?

    If your not using a super computer like a jaguar or something like that..please..go back to using a super computer.

    • Kyle J Hill says:

      They use taxed computers. 🙂 Taxed and being taxed. That’s what you get for “free” which is essentially hiding the cost from the public and with government there is no incentive to change until there is a major backlash. Private companies to stay alive they have to change.

      If they have to receive political kickbacks (I won’t name any parties) or steal using the vague loopholes like Google/FB monopolies do then that shows the mentality of the CEO’s running it.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      Cool, maybe we will start seeing the wind pick up here soon

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      I see your just North of Longview from your other post. Your not that far from Portland but it could still be far enough were we don’t see a lot of wind. I hope we do tho!!

  16. Oh weather station died..so i cant even give the barometric pressure..

  17. Reporting innFrom Castle Rock Washington.
    Severe winds are hitting.
    We still have power..but not sure for how much longer.in the process of uploading Audio from Stor..

  18. Jason Hougak says:

    Quite the let down but hey at least there’s less rain to melt the snow.

  19. K says:

    This is disappointing. Oh well, that’s just the weather over here.

  20. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Thank you for the update Mark. I posted a comment on the other post so I will post it here. I’m wondering why you didn’t say anything about the NAM?

    Here is my comment:

    Am I reading the 00Z NAM right? It looks like it wants to give the Portland area 50+ mph around noon tomorrow? I’m not sure if that’s right. If someone could look at that I would appreciate it.

    First

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