Calm Weather; So Get Out & Vote Tomorrow!

10:30pm Monday…

Today’s showers were a bit more, let’s say…vigorous than I expected.  Quite a cluster of downpours and even one thunderstorm moved through the metro area between 2-3:30pm.

Other than a few light showers here and there Tuesday I don’t see any significant rain in the next 7-10 days.  This first half of November appears to be unusually quiet weather-wise as mentioned in last week’s post.

The reason is a persistent area of upper-level high pressure either in the eastern Pacific or right over us.  The location and intensity of that ridge is different each day.  The general result is very weak weather systems with an absence of a powerful wet season jet stream.    The ECMWF, GEM, & GFS forecast for 10 days from now (NEXT Thursday the 15th) shows that ridge is still in place nearby.  We won’t get into a stormy weather pattern, regardless of warm or cold, until that disappears.

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I think I’m going to use this unusual November dry spell to hang Christmas lights this weekend.  Most years I do it with fingers freezing or cold & wet.  No, don’t worry, I won’t turn them on until after Thanksgiving… #OneHolidayAtATime

Here’s the ECMWF forecast precipitation the next 10 days.  Most of that is tonight/tomorrow and again the middle of next week.  Pretty dry for November!

ecmwf_tprecip_portland_41

To summarize, there is no sign of an arctic blast or significant Cascade snow through the middle of next week.  Forget windstorms or heavy rain too.

There’s no excuse weather-wise to skip voting tomorrow in Oregon or Washington.  Survival of our democracy depends on public input in the form of voting for candidates and measures/initiatives.  I don’t think I’ve missed a single election since I turned 18 just in time for the 1988 presidential election; it’s so easy to do.  The past 18 years many national elections have been quite close; proving each vote does matter and elections clearly do have consequences.  It doesn’t matter who/what you vote for, just vote.  And enjoy the off/on sunshine the next few days too!  Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

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36 Responses to Calm Weather; So Get Out & Vote Tomorrow!

  1. Ken in Wood Village says:

    To bad we don’t go by the CFS. The 12Z CFS was AMAZING!!!!

  2. boydo3 says:

    Dry, dry, dry! That’s the word on the south coast. Rivers are still at summertime lows with no place for salmon to go. It’s getting to be crunch time here.

  3. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I like the 12Z GFS (a little, needs work) but I am also seeing something but I’m going to wait a couple of days to see if the GFS keeps it as a trend!!

  4. W7ENK says:

    Got dangerously close to a frost last night, but didn’t quite get there before clouds moved back overhead. Crystal clear and 37 at 9pm, was thinking the banana leaves would be droopy mush this morning, but it was 44 at 6am and they were fine. It’s coming…

    Glad I got everything else moved inside. Peppers are still flowering/producing/ripening, even some new growth of the branches on my Tabasco plant!

    • Mountain Man says:

      Apparently I’m not the only one who turns my peppers into houseplants for the winter? I brought in 17 this year including 3 Tabasco. Some of my 2 and 3 year old plants have been incredibly productive the following summers! Some people are suprised that they’ll turn into small trees and live year after year if you winter them over in a south facing window. Iys well worth it!

  5. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I liked the end of the 06Z GFS, the 12Z GFS is coming in.

    The 00Z EURO doesn’t look that bad either, there is room for improvement. 🙂

  6. alohabb says:

    I must live in this crazy little micro climate area in Aloha. Leaving the house was 28. Just a few miles down the road it was 40.

  7. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Cliff Mass did a blog about Arizona’s Monsoon. There is a time lapse video that is very cool. I think everyone would love this.

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-stunning-video-of-arizona-monsoon.html

    • K says:

      Makes me too jealous 😦

      To know that a literal desert has more interesting weather.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        LOL, I’m sorry K. You have to admit, it was a awesome video. Maybe I should take some vacation time down there during their Monsoon season…lol. I don’t know if I could handle 100+ degrees day after day though…lol.

  8. Mountain Man says:

    34.5 and definitely looks like my first real freeze tonight. Parts of the Portland area maybe freeze or get a little frost too? If thick fog holds off it seems quite possible.

  9. K says:

    In fact, I think 2018 has been the worst weather year on record here in Portland. What a sad year, nothing significant has happened but the 30+ 90 days at PDX (but that’s kind of a dubious record). Let’s move on to the next, and hope it’s a better year!

  10. Clear skies… check. Calm wind… check. Low dew points… check. Current temperature: 39°F. The stage seems set for my first frost of the season.

    • Roland Derksen says:

      Didn’t quite make it here for frost. Clouds moved in shortly before midnight and only in the last hour has it finally cleared. Maybe another chance for frost after tomorrow.

  11. K says:

    Hate to say it, but this is far and foremost the WORST fall I’ve ever experienced. Sad stuff, the weather these days.

  12. Mike says:

    Eugene is on track to have the driest consecutive 12 months on record since 1890. The current record for 12 months was the year 2013. Not only was this the first year there was no rain in June and July, there was no measurable rain in August. October rainfall here was about 70% of normal.

  13. Roland Derksen says:

    November is often the wettest, cloudiest month of the year for me, but so far I’m enjoying this one. We’ve got another sunny day today, and tonight I may see my first freezing minimum of the season. The trees are stunning this year with the red leaves in the sunshine.

  14. Globalcrap says:

    If we all go to electric cars it will just DOUBLE maybe triple the pollution and make electricity cost prohibitive when it happens plus the materials to make the electric cars are not “clean energy” at all. There is a dark side to it.

    We will need a LOT more power plants to meet the demand of even half of the USA charging their cars every day which during extreme weather will even further cripple our already weak grid as you liberals feel we should tear down what we already have again to “stop climate change” you’ll only accelerate it out of control worse.

    It’s too expensive to slap solar panels everywhere and like in Sim City after they expire they blow up and your left with Uncle Sam paying for it. 🙂

    And we have a genuine shortage of the materials that make batteries to begin with. Look up the Zinc shortage it’s a real issue that needs to be officially addressed or we WILL run out especially as resorts like Disney uses them EVERY single night.

    Though one positive note is they are more and more going to laser-light shows which I think this is secretly why they are doing away with traditional fireworks as they are not stupid (at least some of them).

    The people at the top of the food chain want the resources buried in the north pole it’s FULL of good stuff but THEY will have most of it not us. We are just in the way according to their views but they will do whatever it takes to reach it.

    Even if it means messing with our climate and weather to redirect the flow so it will speed up the melting process of said pole. They also want a shipping lane for Russia as Russia has no real port they can use.

  15. JohnD says:

    For we active winter weather lovers, there doesn’t need to be too much anxiety until the clock strikes “December”! If nothing exciting is showing up upstream at that point then maybe there could be cause for alarm; hopefully not the case!
    In the meantime, enjoy!
    I was at the Seahawks game Sunday fully prepared for a deluge and cool temps. Instead shirtsleeve all the way. Too bad the score didn’t follow suit!

  16. JERAT416 says:

    Boring 7 day. Bring on something fun!

  17. oregondean says:

    Thanks for a clear day to vote!

  18. Mike says:

    I fear our southern states and Mexico weather is moving northward into the PNW. I don’t like seeing what it will do to all our beautiful trees in California and Oregon.

    I think it does have a lot to do with the large amount of fuel consumption. I didn’t believe this until recently, but having witnessed changes since first traveling thru the PNW in the early 70’s. I was always on my way to the Canadian Rockies every summer in my college years….The changes are unbelievable. Yosemite Valley is shocking to me.

    • …compare before and current pictures of glacier np for another good shock….for that matter, same thing with mt. hood!..

      • Mike says:

        Yes thank you larry I will check that out.

        I meant to say the meadows in Yosemite valley used to be green all summer long. Recent visits show otherwise and the trees looked stressed as compared to 38 years ago which they seemed more vibrant and alive.

  19. K says:

    What a great fall this has been so far. I hope you can sense my obvious sarcasm!

  20. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Thank you for the update Mark. I see the same thing on all the models too. It’s a little frustrating so see that High build then weaken to let a system come in and then rebuild and it is always in the same spot. I wish it would go South and build over Hawaii so the systems can come in. Let’s just hope we can actually have a fall/winter this year!! First

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