Happy Halloween! First Week of November = Calm Weather

7:30pm Wednesday…

Right now little kids are running out and about, collecting large bags of candy.  Lots of fun, but my kids are all grown up so I like to work Halloween.  Plus coworkers brought in treats!  Radar shows just about all the rain is up against the Cascade foothills and in the Cascades.  Whew…a mainly dry Halloween for lowland kids.

November arrives in just a few hours!  Typically November-February is the core of our “storm season” in the Pacific Northwest.  By that I mean that most of our windy systems, heavy rains, & all-around “busy weather days” happen during this period.  But for at least the first 10 days of this November that won’t be the case.  Why?  Take a look at the 500 millibar map for right now…an upper-level ridge just offshore.

Jet Stream Forecast 2017a

This weakens systems, allowing just lots of clouds and occasional rain into the Pacific Northwest.  The general pattern continues for at least the next week.  Here’s NEXT Wednesday

Jet Stream Forecast 2017.png

So for weather geeks like me it appears this first part of our stormy season will be a bit slow.  Interesting to note that the El Nino year of 2002-2003 was very similar.  A weak ridge kept popping up off/on through the winter.

The ECMWF ensemble forecast for rainfall the next 15 days shows a slow accumulation. Those are 24 hour totals.  A system comes through Friday morning and again Sunday.  Then maybe something more organized about a week later.


Snow has changed to rain in the Cascades as well today, Timberline and Meadows have picked up at least 1.50-2.00″ rainfall already.  I don’t see any sign of significant snow accumulation the first 10 days of the month either under this mild pattern.  October ended up snow-free at Government Camp, but that’s not unusual at all

Snow October Govt Camp 2017

To summarize:

  1. The next week will be wet at times, but plenty of dry periods too
  2. Temperatures remain near to above normal during the first week of November
  3. No sign of a stormy Pacific jet stream sending bigger weather action our way, pretty quiet weatherwise
  4. There won’t be an early opening of Cascade ski resorts this year.  At least not in the first 10 days of November

If you are a skier or snowboarder, there’s no reason to freak out.  I’ve seen LOTS of years where nothing happens early in November.  Then suddenly we get feet of snow for a week which opens up the resorts.  We’ll see how things go.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

79 Responses to Happy Halloween! First Week of November = Calm Weather

  1. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Is Mark going to do another post??

    • K says:

      On what? Not much to talk about or on the horizon, sadly 😦

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      I think he will have to address the complete lack of weather for the first half of November. We will get there with less than .50” of rain, no east wind, no highs below 50, no freezing lows. Nothing. Endless partly sunny mid 50s to low 60s and dry.

  2. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Have to love the heating of the day. I’m getting some interesting cloud formations. Maybe we could see a stray thunderstorm 🤔😉

  3. Matthew Beck says:

    Hi Mark,

    I don’t know if you will get this, but I found an interesting word on Dictionary.com that you might find interesting:

    “*Grumphie* smells the weather, / An’ *grumphie* sees the wun’; / He kens when clouds will gather, / An’ smoor the blinikin’ sun.” This extravagant tribute to the pig as a weather prophet is typical of a large number of proverbs, though, perhaps no other animal has been credited with actually seeing the wind.

  4. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I am so sick and tired of seeing a High pressure either building off the coast or building right over the PNW. It’s not going to be a good fall/winter if this keeps up.

  5. K says:

    This is lovely weather! jk

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      LMAO…I see someone is bored…lol. It is looking like we could have a week of dry weather. I’m hoping the models will stay with what they keep showing and that is wetter and cooler weather around Tuesday of next week. We’ll see 🙂

  6. Roland Derksen says:

    Beautiful day here with sunshine and brisk west winds. Not many leaves left on the trees. I’ve counted already 3.30 inches of rain for the month.

  7. Ken in Wood Village says:

    The radar is interesting. I had some hail a few minutes ago 🤔

  8. Andy says:

    What a balmy morning here in Albany after a cold front. Cleaning up leaves and sweating on a November morning. I agree we didn’t have a lot of rain again with the last few events. Hoping for colder conditions later this month. I hope and pray we don’t have a winter like 2015 with dry and warm conditions with fake cold thrown in.

  9. Jake in Gresham says:

    So uh, I don’t want to crush enthusiasms for our Winter weather. But uh, a Nor’easter developed on the latest Euro and explodes over Chicago into something fierce leaving. Nothing to see here folks.

  10. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    To say that last night’s and Thursday night’s rain events were busts would be a gross understatement. Both were advertised as soakers with heavy, steady rain breaking into showers by the morning commute. Both ended up with barely enough rain to wet the ground. Now, we find ourselves in a predicament where we will see close to zero rain in the next 10 days. Brutal.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      I think I have GFS whiplash. The 00Z GFS looked really dry and now the 06Z GFS has a lot of rain. Since we went back an hour, the 12Z GFS is coming out now. Wonder if it will be mostly dry…lol

    • Doug says:

      Indeed, Joshua. All these forecasts for drenching rain that never actually gets here. I waited and waited and waited and finally heard a few drips around 4 a.m. All these sophisticated forecast tools and all they yield is bust after bust after bust, so all we are left with here is (enviously) reading about all the rain Vancouver BC is getting. Yep, the next 10 days, and likely beyond that, are looking like what I was used to seeing to seeing in NorCal. Which we seem on the cusp of becoming.

      Off topic, but did you, too, hear the police sirens last night that went on and off and on and off and on….for over an hour around 2 a.m.?

      Doug in Lake Grove

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        Doug, I did not hear the sirens. I live in the Rosewood area of Lake Oswego. Do you know what happened?

        • Doug says:

          Hey Joshua. No idea what the deal was. I Googled it yesterday, including the LO Police Calls site and came up empty. It went on for over an hour: siren, silence, siren, silence, sometimes the siren would cut off in the middle, pause, start again. Not sure where it was; I thought it was east of us (near Twin Fir/Upper Dr junction) but it cold have been between here and Rosewood.

          Right now (2:15) it is flat out POURING here. Must be a rogue thunderstorm; a real treat as I was expecting the usual dry all day thing.

          I got to Mark’s blog several times a day, always hoping for some bit of good news. But, as you pointed out, even when you get something promising, it rarely pans out.


    • Mike says:

      It’s even worse in the South Valley. You guys at least had a good October. The 2.08″ that Mark said for Eugene by last Thursday didn’t make it to 1.5, the usual half to 2/3s of expected. We’re coming off the first summer since records began in Eugene that not only didn’t it rain in both June and July, but it didn’t get measurable in August, either. Hope springs eternal.

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        I feel bad for you down there. It’s bad enough here. It seems like literally every single rain event for the last 5 months or so has been more fortuitous the more north you go. At some point, we have to be the bullseye

  11. Kyle says:

    The (H) is where most of the Great Pacific Trash pile is. If you look west of the H it is “red hot” on the ocean temp maps.

    As for DST I am thankful we are turning the clocks back for bright mornings again. I am TIRED of 8am sunrises. Now it won’t be that way till almost X-mas. WOO HOO! Waking up at 7AM to total darkness outside feels disorienting.

    If we were on DST all year it wouldn’t be till a little after 9AM on cloudy days for light to appear and most people would STILL go home in near darkness.

  12. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I don’t like what the GFS has been showing. If it keeps it up, we are looking at a drought. It’s like mother nature hates the PNW 😦

    • K says:

      Correction: Mother Nature hates Portland south. She seems to shower Seattle with wind events and non-busting rain.

    • Kyle says:

      Look up Agenda 2030 and what the UN wants. There is lots of documentation on owning the weather by 2020 and there is even a semi hidden stock market on it. A double wall street where they bet on weather insurance.etc

      It makes the picture a lot more clear we the people no longer matter and are just in the way.

      • K says:

        Oh, of course. The chemtrails are being released by the men who had JFK killed, the lizard people who work in the government. Yeah, you can see the evidence in Beyonce’s Single Ladies video, which proves the elaborate conspiracy threatening to take the world by storm. Yep, we are starting to not only control the weather, but also brainwash animals and use them in a secret space force available by the year 2027.

        Did I miss anything?

    • Mike says:

      We are in a drought in the South Valley. I dated it to last 4 December, when the Death Ridge parked for 2 weeks. This is worth reading: we have kindred folks in the south. https://baynature.org/2018/11/01/will-it-ever-rain-again-the-models-say-whoa/

  13. The only thing unusual so far is seeing bees buzzing about and some insets that should be hibernating not hibernating.

    Any one else seeing insects still out?
    I sure hope we get some true cold weather like what we had earlier in October with a light frost. I think it was October 14,2018 when we got that frost.

    Oh and I still have potatoes growing ! and a strawberry turning red? lol.

    No Drama, just interesting to see how some of my plants are still trying to produce food.

    I do have the ever bearing strawberries, but even they stop bearing after it gets cold.

    But, the one thing for sure, is seeing bees, they are very aggressive.
    so has any one else seen bees or other insects that should be sleeping?

    • Kyle says:

      The ponds have tadpoles that were just born and more on the way. It feels and smells like late May but the sun angle is wrong.

  14. K says:

    Looks like Seattle is getting a little wind event. Of course, Portland gets left out like always 🙂

  15. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Hmmm, I’m just looking at the 12Z ECMWF coming in and it puts a High close to the four corners and the pressure is amazing. I don’t think I have ever seen a High this strong before it has it at 1050mb. If you like to look. The day is next Friday on the 11/09/18. It’s a long ways off so it probably won’t happen but I just thought it was very interesting.

  16. K says:

    This is actually the most pathetic fall we’ve had in a while. Every fall within the last ten years has had at least 1 significant weather event, except this one.

    • boydo3 says:

      I respectfully disagree. This has been a beautiful fall and the weather has been significantly nice. 🙂

      • K says:

        You know, you’re right. It’s been beautiful, and unnaturally pleasant outside. Perhaps it’s just my drive for stormy weather prompting my annoyance 🙂

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      I’m kind of thinking you are a little frustrated because of the 00Z GFS? When I looked at it I was like (what the hell)…lol. I haven’t looked in great detail on the 06Z GFS but I looked at it briefly and it looks way better than the 00Z. I still think things will change 🙂

    • Roland Derksen says:

      I guess you’re going to have to come up here (north of the 49th). We’re getting another rainfall warning- the second in 3 days.

  17. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    So, are we going to have a ridge of high pressure posted up to our west for the entire fall/winter or just most of it?

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      Not sure. I do see it showing up a lot in the runs. It does back off from time to time and lets in some cooler air from the North. It looks like something may happen about a week away. It’s kind of a wait and see thing for now.

    • Most. Welcome to El Niño.

  18. Lurkyloo says:

    Halloween of 2002 was wicked cold — 33 degrees with east wind if I remember correctly. This weather is very odd to me. Haven’t even heard the geese squawking south. Guess we’ll see what we see.

    • Kyle says:

      I’ve seen several gone north but don’y know if they are local geese but they hall had the formation.

  19. Diana says:

    It’s 67 degrees right now, at 6pm in East Vancouver, and I am utterly and completely, weatherly bored out of my gourd! I am so jonesing for a freezing cold storm of some sort! Time to think about annual trip to Vermont!

    P.S. Wish I could add an image to this post; I have a great pic of an artist’s Transformed Halloween Gourd….with a wee bit of oozing brain showing through. It’s adorable.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      You can go to this website: http://tinypic.com/

      You can create a profile and then upload a picture. Once you upload. Look for this “Direct Link for Layouts”. Copy it and then come back to this blog and paste it to your comment. That’s how I am able to upload a picture here 🙂

  20. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I agree Gene, about us being weather geeks!! I thought I would start a new comment. I was looking at the 18Z GFS. There is a nice big low starting around Saturday the 10th (I know, it’s a long ways off) it comes up and almost stops at the California/Oregon border (out in the Pacific) and just roams around for a couple of days then finally moves into Northern California. If only it would move up North. We could see a nice wind storm. I saw this a couple of times on the GFS but it’s way out there and probably won’t happen. 😦

  21. Roland Derksen says:

    We’re getting the rain up here. About 2 inches to come today and overnight (at least) and more on the way for the weekend. Intresting to see Mark compare the start of this winter season with 2002-03. Didn’t I mention that earlier? 🙂

    • Very little rain for me (under 0.10″ in the past 48 hours) because storms have been coming from basically due west, which leaves me heavily rain-shadowed by the Olympics.

      • Roland Derksen says:

        Rubus, we received the effect of that rainshadow in the evening. It did resume raining overnight here after 9:30 pm ,but before that it was breezy and very mild (56F) for a few hours. Overnight rain was mostly light.

  22. W7ENK says:

    It’s still ridiculously warm and muggy. It’s time for some cold weather, some frosty mornings, and heavy coats. Instead, my pepper plants are still producing, the crickets were still happily chirping away in my yard last evening, and I decided to go into work sans jacket this morning.

    For goodness sake, it’s November!

  23. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    57.7 at 5:10 am on November 1st. Wow.

  24. Paul D says:

    If I need to start mowing my grass in January I’m going to be really grumpy 🙂

    • Gene says:

      I would definitely agree with that. I like to have a vacation from mowing in November/ December/ January/ February!

  25. K says:

    Alright, I was whiny earlier, my apologies. I was just frustrated at the relatively rainless GFS run. Hopefully the upcoming weather will be interesting, and perhaps sometime our real storm season could start!

  26. K says:

    I’m fed up with the weather here. Everywhere else in the country gets slammed and we get absolutely nothing. Last winter was horrible, I guarantee this one will be worse the way the spring is going. I want to have hope that we will have a great winter, but it just won’t happen. I’m sure we’ll be VERY hard pressed to even get a gust over 45 mph this winter.

    • Maybe its time to move somewhere else? Winter hasn’t even started yet. Relax, go read a good book. I think the season has started off with a bang. Several confirmed tornadoes already…………

      • K says:

        I beg to differ about the season starting off with a bang. By this time last year we had two atmospheric river events. The year before it was a windstorm/heavy rain event. The year before a significant rain event. The year before a windstorm. I could go on…

        This year we had three dopey tornadoes. End of story.

      • JERAT416 says:

        Exactly. We are in a temperate zone, and that means extremes are uncommon. There is plenty of time for good stuff to come our way. It just depends on the year. I’m not jealous of my friends in tornado alley, my friends in Alaska (especially in the dead of winter), my friends in Florida with constant heat, humidity, and thunderstorms (except snowbird season), and the list goes in. Most of us get excited when we get things that are abnormal without moving. That’s why we all love this blog. It’s an educational, fun place to dream and discuss exciting (but rare) weather.

        • K says:

          I’m jealous of all of them 🙂

          Except Florida, that would be awful. But I wish this was like the 50s all the way through the 90s (not that I was even alive back then). Every year during those decades there would be at least one significant weather event. But after 2006, we have nothing. Scorn me if you please, but it’s just my opinion. Perhaps it’s wrong, but I suppose the correct thing to do would be to expect nothing and be satisfied every time.

        • Gene says:

          “After 2006, we have nothing?” I’d have to disagree that we’ve been shut out, weatherwise, since then. How about the epic December/January of 2008-09? Two feet of snow in Portland, the most since (I think) 1968-69? And a White Christmas that year with a foot of snow on the ground, and accumulating snow on Christmas Day itself? I never thought I’d see that. And the cold 2016-17 that included a foot of snow in Portland on that amazing day in mid-January? That certainly qualifies as something. And the summers of 2015 and 2018 where we set the record for most 90 degree days in a summer (28 in ‘15, then broken with 31 in ‘18)? I’d consider all of these to be interesting/ unusual/ even exciting weather events that we’ve experienced since 2006. Hopefully, there are more to come in the years ahead (though I agree, this El Niño winter may not be one of those)

        • Muxpux (Castle Rock) says:

          Dang, the winter of ‘08 is already being dismissed as a “non-event”??

          That was easily regarded as one of the best winters this area has seen.

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          Gene, I wouldn’t call 2015 and 2018’s 90 degree plus temps something interesting. I would call it very disturbing. I have lived in the Portland area all my life and we would only get a few days a season above 90 or even 100. In the past 18 years it just keeps getting warmer and warmer. It needs to stop.

          I can feel K’s pain. Like I said above, the past 18 years we have been getting less and less good storms. Yes, we have had a few good ones but they are few and far between compared to what I’m use to. Before 2000, winters here were great. We would either get a snow storm, wind storm or even a good arctic outbreak.

          I think it was either 87 or 88 when we had a massive arctic outbreak. Alaska was having lows in the -60F and highs somewhere around -40F (I think). Well, that started moving down our way. I remember seeing a temperature gauge in Gresham saying 40F and an hour later it read 31F. When I got off work, it was 23F and we had some really strong East Winds. I went through two car batteries (you try to change a car battery in those types of cold winds…it hurt like a “blank”).

          Like I said, I can feel K’s pain. I myself have vented from time to time and I have seen other’s do it too. So why can’t everyone just back off with bashing K.

          Thank you 🙂

        • Gene says:

          Ken, please go back and reread my original comment. No bashing was done — or intended. I simply wanted to add in my 2 cents worth about the fact that we have had some interesting and unusual weather since 2006 — which is not bashing, but a simple disagreement with the original commenter. I think most people who read this blog would agree with the fact that we have had some fun/exciting weather events over the past decade or so. Yes, we all wish we had a greater number of exciting weather events, but we do live in a temperate climate, which tends to discourage that. I disagree with you that record high temperatures are not interesting and unusual — they are, just like record low temperatures are interesting and unusual. It seems like among this blog’s commenters, there’s more interest in breaking low temp records than high temp records, which is fine — I understand that. And I absolutely do agree with you that we’ve had way fewer Arctic air masses during the past dozen years or so — we’re way overdue for one (or two — or even more!). And it seems to me that we are especially overdue for an epic Arctic outbreak. Maybe this year?

        • GTS1Kft says:

          Like I said, I can feel K’s pain. I myself have vented from time to time and I have seen other’s do it too. So why can’t everyone just back off with bashing K.

          “..bashing K…”

          There’s no real “pain” to feel, Ken – it’s just teen angst or something – and your characterization of comments as bashing is overwrought, hyperbolic and inaccurate. If you can’t abide some disagreement and pushback you should reassess whether this is the venue for you – or your abbreviated friend. There has, historically, been a lot of “venting” on the blog and, similarly, responses calling it out with varying degrees of vehemence.

          It’s a give and take and, well, you know…

          …heat/kitchen and all that.

          Have a nice day!

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          Sorry Gene, that comment about bashing wasn’t meant for you. Sometime I write faster than my brain and I forgot to say that to “Mike (Orchards 255′)” because of what he said, “Maybe its time to move somewhere else? Winter hasn’t even started yet. Relax, go read a good book.” I think it’s rude to tell someone they should move.

          As to saying about “bashing”. I guess people have different views on how to interpret it. To me, when someone goes after someone for their views or believes then I would consider that bashing. As a person who has been bashed over the years because of my sexuality, well that’s all I’m going to say about that. It just makes me upset when I see everyone ganging up on someone. To me, it’s wrong.

        • Gene says:

          No problem, Ken. The main thing here is that we’re all enthusiastic about the weather, and that’s what makes reading Mark’s amazing blog entries — and all the interesting comments — so much fun, especially during times of active weather

        • K says:

          GTS1K, I hope your comment wasn’t intended to be rude- not that I think it was.

      • boydo3 says:

        People move for a change of climate all the time. You can too..

        • K says:

          So, you want me to move? Fair enough. I like the climate here, when it’s not dull like it has been the past two years. Just being fed up with a single winter does not warrant considering moving, plus I really can’t move, so…

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