Happy Halloween! First Week of November = Calm Weather

October 31, 2018

7:30pm Wednesday…

Right now little kids are running out and about, collecting large bags of candy.  Lots of fun, but my kids are all grown up so I like to work Halloween.  Plus coworkers brought in treats!  Radar shows just about all the rain is up against the Cascade foothills and in the Cascades.  Whew…a mainly dry Halloween for lowland kids.

November arrives in just a few hours!  Typically November-February is the core of our “storm season” in the Pacific Northwest.  By that I mean that most of our windy systems, heavy rains, & all-around “busy weather days” happen during this period.  But for at least the first 10 days of this November that won’t be the case.  Why?  Take a look at the 500 millibar map for right now…an upper-level ridge just offshore.

Jet Stream Forecast 2017a

This weakens systems, allowing just lots of clouds and occasional rain into the Pacific Northwest.  The general pattern continues for at least the next week.  Here’s NEXT Wednesday

Jet Stream Forecast 2017.png

So for weather geeks like me it appears this first part of our stormy season will be a bit slow.  Interesting to note that the El Nino year of 2002-2003 was very similar.  A weak ridge kept popping up off/on through the winter.

The ECMWF ensemble forecast for rainfall the next 15 days shows a slow accumulation. Those are 24 hour totals.  A system comes through Friday morning and again Sunday.  Then maybe something more organized about a week later.

KPDX_2018103112_eps24_precip_360

Snow has changed to rain in the Cascades as well today, Timberline and Meadows have picked up at least 1.50-2.00″ rainfall already.  I don’t see any sign of significant snow accumulation the first 10 days of the month either under this mild pattern.  October ended up snow-free at Government Camp, but that’s not unusual at all

Snow October Govt Camp 2017

To summarize:

  1. The next week will be wet at times, but plenty of dry periods too
  2. Temperatures remain near to above normal during the first week of November
  3. No sign of a stormy Pacific jet stream sending bigger weather action our way, pretty quiet weatherwise
  4. There won’t be an early opening of Cascade ski resorts this year.  At least not in the first 10 days of November

If you are a skier or snowboarder, there’s no reason to freak out.  I’ve seen LOTS of years where nothing happens early in November.  Then suddenly we get feet of snow for a week which opens up the resorts.  We’ll see how things go.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen