Winter 2018-19 Thoughts

6pm Monday…

I just posted a “page” up above (note the tabs) on this upcoming winter.  Check it out!

Mark ElNino PacificNorthwest Effects2

36 Responses to Winter 2018-19 Thoughts

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    One thing about areas that get Typhoons, Hurricanes and Cyclones is that among the damage the Palm trees still stand. It’s amazing how well their designed to withstand such a violent storm. People may never learn. Build… destroy…build… destroy… build… destroy… hmmm… maybe we should move???

  2. K says:

    I’m so sad all of the blog posts from the crazy arctic episode in 2008 are gone. Is there any way at all that we can see them?

  3. Ken in Wood Village says:

    To funny. The 00Z 10/11/18 CFS shows the PNW having it’s first Artic Blast…lmao

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      Sorry, forgot the day. It show’s it on 11/11/18 LMAO

      • W7ENK says:

        Uhmmm… that’s 31 days out.

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          I know, that’s why I said, “To funny”. I know the CFS is not reliable. If I had emoji’s I would have put something on my post. Next time you look at a post read it instead of making a conclusion. It’s always nice to have someone bullying me again. Think before you post.

        • W7ENK says:

          Wow, Ken, why did you take that so personally? I wasn’t bullying you at all, I was agreeing with you. I was “LMAO”-ing with you at the fact that the CFS was showing anything so drastic out 31 days. All the other models tend to wash out into average territory in the longer range, except the GFS with it’s perpetually epic cold and snow at day 10, but then I guess that’s to be expected anymore.

          Sheesh man, relax.

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          Sorry but I interpreted what you wrote as making fun at me. I would have rewrote it a different way. Instead of saying, “Uhmmm” I would have said, “Wow, the CFS is crazy”. The emoji also is pointing at something which to me meant it was at me. I guess you weren’t very specific on who you were talking to. Just my thoughts.

  4. Heidi Jones says:

    It doesn’t look like the link was included:

    https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/winter-2018-2019-thoughts/

    On Mon, Oct 8, 2018 at 6:35 PM FOX 12 Weather Blog wrote:

    > Mark Nelsen posted: “6pm Monday… I just posted a “page” up above (note > the tabs) on this upcoming winter. Check it out! ” >

  5. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I hate to say this but the way things are going we are heading into a drought. I’m leaving it at that.

    • K says:

      Awful outlook so far.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        Yea, been looking at the models and I’m not liking what I see. Every time I think the High is going away it comes back. I’m sick of this never ending summer. At least one thing could be fun out of this nice weather and that would be going up to Crown Point if we get some strong winds. We’ll see.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        One thing I do like in the models is the fact colder air is getting more prominent up North now. Alaska’s Highs are in the 30’s to maybe low 40’s. I’m just hoping the High will move out of the way so we can start the fall rains.

    • Meh. I put nowhere near that much faith in long-term forecasts. I still think the first half of the coming winter will be pretty normal, and the midwinter Death Ridge episodes El Niño years typically experience does not necessarily persist into spring; there’s often a “march Miracle” that provides partial or complete recovery from the midwinter precipitation deficit. Bottom line is that El Niño does not necessarily imply “drought year.”

      I’m only jumping on the drought bandwagon if March rolls around and there’s still no sign of the Death Ridge going away.

      • To clarify things further: overall, I expect the coming winter to be below normal in mountain snowpack, but I am not expecting that deficiency to necessarily reach drought levels. Not yet. There’s lots of ground between “average water year” and “drought year.” Don’t fall for the fallacy of the false dichotomy.

  6. JohnD says:

    Much rather have early season trends be on the mild side, then–hopefully–a true wintry oscillation later!
    So great having a nice period early on! Enjoy it while we can!
    Even the earliest period of the theoretical winter weather window is still weeks away.

  7. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Hurricane Michael is a monster. Pressure is 923mb but they are saying that is falling still. The winds are up to 150mph but could be higher now. Florida is going to get hit hard. I hope everyone has evacuated and gotten out of the way.

    • Michael had a lower central pressure at landfall than Andrew did. Andrew was originally thought to be a Category 4 storm at landfall and was only upgraded to Category 5 later, after studying the damage it did.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        I remember Andrew. That was an amazing hurricane. I’m not sure if they could upgrade Michael like they did Andrew. Michael was a monster. I’ve been watching the news and seeing all the damage. It makes me appreciate that I live in the PNW. We get wind storms but nothing compared to what the SE U.S. get’s.

        • K says:

          Do remember that the Columbus Day Storm (though Michael was crazy strong) actually may have possessed higher official wind gusts than it. Just shows the scope of the storm.

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          I’ve heard about what the Columbus Day Storm was like from my mom. I wasn’t born yet. I’m not that old…lmao.

  8. W7ENK says:

    This next several days’ stretch is looking fantastic!

  9. K says:

    Gonna be a super fall and winter, looking forward to it!

    …not.

  10. I predict there will be a long-playing Death Ridge leading to below-normal moisture and above-normal temperatures for the coming winter… but that it won’t really kick in until the new year. That’s how El Niño years often shape up.

    Before that happens will be the best chance for a good lowland snow event. Also, when the splitty/ridgy conditions kick in, it’s an open question if it will tend to be warm here at the surface or cold with a strong inversion. I will simply point out that it’s been quite a while since we’ve had persistent cold inversion conditions in a winter and sooner or later it will happen again.

    Then comes spring and the other question is if there’s a “March miracle” to compensate for the deficient January/February snowfall or not. That often makes a huge difference as to whether or not an El Niño winter ends up being a spectacular bust for snow overall.

    • Roland Derksen says:

      Your description of this coming winter sounds like a replay of winter 1976-77 to me. If that happens, we’ll get a lot of fog here, and skiers will be complaining all season long.

      • Understand, though, I’m not saying there will be a prolonged cold and foggy spell, only that there might be. What I am forecasting is that there will be a Death Ridge for much of the latter half of of the winter. Whether it will be accompanied by mild or cold conditions at the surface, I do not feel comfortable in forecasting.

  11. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Give me a brake Mother Nature. What do you have against the PNW?? You give the goods to everyone else but the West Coast. ;(

  12. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Well, it looks like fall is cancelled for the next two weeks. Bone dry and 70 (give or take). At least the nights will be coolish. So much for the return to wet weather next week. These ridges always stick around longer than originally forecasted.

    As for winter… who knows? The odds are stacked against us for epic cold/snow/rain, but as Paul said, weather doesn’t follow a script.

  13. So Mark What Type Of Winter 2018-19 And 2019 Spring Well What Type Will We Really Have In Your Mind Mark. Good Day To All At Fox 12 Portland.

  14. Paul Sorensen says:

    Weather is chaos. Last year didn’t follow the script. Why should this year’s weather? ENSO is one indicator. By April 2019 we’ll all know what happened, and maybe why.

  15. Paul D says:

    Let the wishcasting begin!

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