Cool Weather & Early October Soaker On The Way

9pm Wednesday…

This morning was chilly!  Temperatures dropped well down into the 30s in many parts of the metro area; stopping at 44 right in the city at PDX.

PDX Observed Low Today

This afternoon was “comfortably cool” I suppose with highs just a few notches below normal.  Tomorrow looks dry or mainly dry (just a slight risk of an afternoon sprinkle) as a cool upper-level trough passes overhead.

Friday gives us our first rainy/overcast/chilly day of the season.  A surface low pressure system tracks right into northern Oregon during the afternoon, pushing a large shield of rain/clouds ahead of it.  Here’s the early afternoon view from our RPM model:

RPM Clouds Rain

And total rain forecast…looks like up to 1/2″ or so in the valleys of western Oregon and southwest Washington.  The best news is that this system will finally bring some light rain to those of you east of the Cascades.  Not a lot, but enough to settle the dust in central and north-central Oregon.  These areas haven’t seen any significant rain since spring.

RPM Precipitation Accumulation

Looking ahead, the weekend should be pleasant, but a bit on the cool side with highs remaining in the 60s.  There is no sign of a stormy/rainy season start as a large upper-level high remains over the eastern Pacific the next 7-10 days.  Occasional weak systems will slide down the back side of the ridge (along the west coast of Canada and PACNW) and give us showers at times.  That keeps temperatures near/below average through at least the middle of next week.  I noticed the ECMWF ensembles warm us up around Day 10 as the ridge moves closer to us.

KPDX_2018100312_eps_min_max_15

We’ll see how that works out.  Big picture = a mellow weather pattern over the next week.

JULIE FONG PIC

PIC BY JULIE FONG

By the way, a bunch of you sent in pics of the “ice halo” around the sun this afternoon.  That’s caused when the ice crystals in the high clouds “refract” or bend the light at a 22 degree angle.  You can read more about it here:

http://www.atoptics.co.uk/halo/circular.htm

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

26 Responses to Cool Weather & Early October Soaker On The Way

  1. Roland Derksen says:

    Yesterday’s rainfall was only about 0.04 inches here- most of the action was well to the south of us. That’s okay- today begins with clear skies, perfect early October conditions.

  2. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Hey Joshua and K. Have you been noticing close to the end of the run on the GFS about a good rain storm? The GFS keeps bringing a lot of rain. One run had over an inch. The 06Z GFS shows a couple of days over half an inch. I know it’s a long ways off but it’s just a little interesting the GFS keeps showing it. It also keeps showing it starting around the same day.

    What do you think Joshua and K?

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      The 12z GFS operational and ensembles are definitely juicy for the middle of the month. Let’s see if the ECMWF comes around.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        Cool, I’m out and about right now so I won’t be able to see the models for awhile. It looks like we could see some rain in the middle of the month but how much is uncertain at this point. Plus, it’s a long ways out there so it could fizzle out by the time we get to those dates. Let’s just hope it keeps it up 🤗🤗

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        Hey Joshua, it looks like the High pressure will finally move out which will allow Low’s to start moving in. Both the GFS and Euro look almost the same, a zonal flow. If they keep looking the same, I want to believe this could be the start of the rainy season. I know, it’s way out there and it could be wish casting but both models show it so I’m hoping for the best…lol

  3. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    So, can we call this another under-performing rain event?

    • K says:

      There was a decent amount of rain. Plus we have convective showers overnight, I believe.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      It’s a little under-performing but I see it as baby steps to hopefully get into a wetter season. I looked at the satellite picture and the low looks like it’s moving south of us but we should still see more rain. Looks like we will be cool also. I liked seeing snow falling at Timberline. I still think we will see a active season 🙂

      • Mike says:

        I’m not sure about many things concerning weather lately, but it seems our weather is becoming less and less active every year. As if there is lessening degree to the intensity to our PNW weather systems. I hope that I am wrong of course.

    • Paul D says:

      Wasn’t too bad in Hillsboro. I use the ultra-scientific method of measuring rainfall by seeing how scummy the pond behind my house is. It went from 100% scummy, to maybe 20% scummy yesterday, so pretty good rainfall.

      Unfortunately the scum is returning…

  4. Ken in Wood Village says:

    The 00Z GFS has gotten very interesting at the end of the run. The 18Z GFS looked almost the same. Not sure if the Euro shows the same but it will be interesting if the GFS keeps showing a big rain storm.

  5. I was was doing a virtual walk online and came up on the weather channel, now them folks have lost it..I mean no way were going to get cold temps this weekend I mean look its 60 F.

    at any rate, there making a big deal out of a possible storm..
    they got the jet stream lowering all the way to California..I mean its like the First Polar Vortex ..or something.
    at any rate, we did just encase something does happen, got fuel for the generator and propane for Mr Buddy and hot water tank.

    On the more real side, I have seen our temps go from 80 to freezing literally over night, and I have seen it where we went from rain to snow and was covered in 30 minutes time.

  6. Roland Derksen says:

    A minimum of 35.4F here this morning, but that’s warm compared to what I’ve heard of in the BC Interior; down to single digit readings yesterday there (Clinton,BC -14C or 7F). An early start to winter? Maybe- but it’s way too early.

  7. Paul D says:

    Sounds like some really pleasant weather! Looking forward to it.

  8. Kyle says:

    I also forgot to mention that during the Obama drought era we had several moderate El Nino’s that were in the perfect position to soak California good many times over but each system hit the spray lines and fell apart.

    I watched pacific system after system bust apart by the time they reached a certain longitude/latitude and all California would get is cloudy with a few sprinkles scattered at the coast.

    I think one of those years all they had was the one moderate Autumn storm which brought strong winds and some hail which brought a lot of false hope and that was all she wrote.

  9. Kyle says:

    The very first year Trump held office even in California there were long periods of NO spraying whatsoever just normal jet trails that vanished and we all had lots of rain and bigger storms.

    Especially California since we were under a weak El Nino I believe and they had the Oroville Dam issues. That spring later spraying resumed once again and the spigot was shut off from then on…… except brief moments when super strong systems held enough to over ride things and not be weakened too much.

    We voted in socialism so we kinda deserve it.

  10. Kyle says:

    The last few days the spraying was like crazy with circle trails and X shaped patterns and LOL and behold the storm magically vanishes where a week ago we were looking at a good region wide soaker.

    Heavy metals in the air makes it so the rain drops get squeezed apart and can’t collect as the rain approaches it will literally “fall apart at the seams” and all you get are dying fronts as a result.

    • Muxpux (Castle Rock) says:

      If you really believe that, your on the wrong blog…

    • Excellent. It’s always good news when comrade Soros gets his money’s worth. And if I were you, I’d learn to watch what I say — this whole Trump thing is just a temporary setback for the Deep State. There still is very much a bed in a FEMA camp with your name on it unless you wise up and get with the program.

  11. Paul Sorensen says:

    A bit of a bummer. I need just one week of dry sunny for amber trichomes to start on the buds. Have to hoop house the plants to prevent mold with the Friday rains.

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