A Cool Weekend, Then Warmer Weather Ahead

7:00pm Thursday…

Today has been another very nice early fall day with temperatures reaching the lower 70s.  Here’s the late afternoon view from our camera looking over the Tilicum & Ross Island bridges


Weather the past 11 days has been amazingly consistent; cooler than normal.  Every day has been below average; topping out between 68 & 72 degrees.  Typically in September we see more up & down movement.  For example very warm days in the upper 70s and 80s and then quick drops into the 60s.

High Temp Last 13 Days

Tomorrow should be even a bit warmer, likely reaching the mid-upper 70s. That’s due to increasing southerly wind just ahead of an approaching cold front.  So enjoy a warm and mainly sunny Friday.  A few light showers arrive around sunset in the western valleys of Oregon and SW Washington; but it’s a weak front so don’t expect a soaking.  A few light showers may pop up Saturday, but Sunday looks dry.  Overall kind of a slow weather weekend; not much happening and no one should get soaked either.

Now about that warmer weather ahead; remember 5 days ago I posted that we were in a cool pattern for the next 10 days.  Apparently it will stop at around 8 days.  It’s pretty obvious that we’re going back into a warmer pattern starting Monday.  You can see the cool upper-level trough over us this weekend

Jet Stream Forecast 2017

then the big ridge coming back next week

Jet Stream Forecast 2017_2

This is the classic early fall warm weather pattern that many of us like.  Lots of sunny days, along with warm temps.  Bright blue skies since the fire smoke is long gone too.  This time of year nights are so long that we drop well down into the 50s and 40s at night so there’s no need for air conditioning.

Here’s a glance at the 24 hour rainfall forecast from the ECMWF ensemble.  Each horizontal line on the upper chart is one ensemble member.  The bottom chart is the average of all those members.  There appears to be almost no chance for showers from the 24th-28th (next week)


How warm will we get next week?  We know 850mb temps will reach into the +15 or higher range.  That can put us into the lower 80s in late September.  But to get warmer than that (closer to 90) we would need a bit warmer temps overhead plus easterly offshore flow with a thermal trough.  The GFS indicates that will happen at some point next week but ECMWF is keeping the ridging a little to our west.  That doesn’t give us a significant offshore flow; you can see the effect on the model surface temp forecast:


In a nod to the EURO I didn’t go wild on high temps, keeping them around 80 or so most of next week.

By the way, mark your calendar for SATURDAY, OCTOBER 27TH.  It’s the 26th annual WINTER WEATHER FORECAST CONFERENCE at OMSI.  It’ll be starting at 10am.  You can see last year’s conference presentations here:  https://oregonams.wordpress.com/2017/10/28/presentations-25th-annual-winter-weather-conference/ 


Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


31 Responses to A Cool Weekend, Then Warmer Weather Ahead

  1. K says:

    EURO and GFS trending “better” for some stormier conditions after this dry period.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      I was trying to let you know. I hope this doesn’t change. Did you see my picture of the low next to Alaska??

      • K says:

        I did, that’s intense. There is also the small possibility that Typhoon Traemi’s remnants cross over and hit us, bringing some rain. Probably will not, but worth looking out for.

  2. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Hey “K”

    I think you will love the 12Z Euro. If this verifies, most of the state will have some rain. It shows Brookings area could get over 8 inches of rain. I know some of that is way out in the 8 to 10 days but it looks like this coming weekend we can get some rain. The GFS has been slowly coming around to the Euro. Hopefully this will happen. We really need the rain.

  3. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Well, the GFS is starting to look a little similar to the 00Z Euro. I did see something over on the tip of Alaska’s islands that interest me. The GFS shows a massive low that’s down to 937mb. I know it’s way out there and probably won’t happen but I will say, WOW

  4. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Well, I hope the 12Z Euro verifies. I know it’s way out there but I like what it says close to the end of the run. I know it’s a dream but it’s the best we have right now.

  5. Roland Derksen says:

    I wish i could transport some of our rainfall here these past 2 days down to you folks. I’m not quite tired of the rain yet, but looking out at the soccer field across the road from my front yard, I can say it’s nearly full of green grass now.

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    Finally one damp morning where I don’t have to water!

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    Seriously you’d think we could get the extended forecast right by now. Less than a tenth of an inch this weekend now. What happened to the cooler and rainy weekend. It may barely get the ground damp. Last weekend it was forecast to get cooler with showers and rain chances Wednesday night through the extended. Now it’s maybe going to sprinkle and be dry through the extended. Why have we spent millions if not billions on weather models and meteorologists if they can’t do their job.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Sorry just needed to vent. I seeded my pasture seeing the forecast. Was perfect weather for seeding and preventing it from drying out. The past week has been getting up early and staying out late watering. I’m running both wells just to keep my seed from dying. Been hard work as this is a few acres. If the forecast was like it was actually this week I’d have waited. The seed it coming up but there are a lot of areas I need to use a high pressure nozzle by hand. Works been insane with water wells. It’s like this summer will never end.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        I sorry about the forecast. I do hear you about the never ending summer. I’m tired of the warm and dry weather. I like to see wetter weather. I was looking at the 18Z GFS and now the 00Z GFS and if it happens, we will see cooler weather but not a lot of rain (for now). The GFS shows a cold Canadian High coming down to the east side of the state and we get a strong East wind. The Euro showed my area having close to 50mph winds. If this pans out, I will be up at Crown Point…lol. Hopefully the models will start showing more rain soon.

    • Paul D says:

      Rain shows in the extended forecast, and the closer it gets, the smaller the rainfall totals get. It spritzed a bit at my house last night, and my lawn sprinklers ran this morning because the rain sensor wasn’t wet enough to stop them, so I know we got nearly nothing. So sad….

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        PDX got .01”. Yes, almost every single foreseeable rain event in the last 4 months or so has busted. Inevitably, the goods end up north and/or west of us. At some point, the bullseye has to be here. Unfortunately, that isn’t happening anytime soon.

  8. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Has anyone seen the 18Z GFS?

    • K says:

      It’s….disappointing, to say the least.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        Yea, but I was more interested in the cooler air coming down from Canada. I looked at the 00Z GFS and it’s almost the same as the 18Z. One thing I do see if this actually happens and that would be we get a cold East winds. The 12Z Euro looked a little similar.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        Hey K, not sure if you will get a notification from this but look at the posts I did up at the top of the blog. 🙂

  9. bg says:

    El nino is expected to develop by this winter and the cpc is forcasteing warmer then normal temps this fall through next summer, 2019 looks like it could be a really warm year from what is being showned

  10. Roland Derksen says:

    We were soaked here (Vancouver BC) overnight: I measured 1.33 inches. A nice break from the rain this morning, but we’re back under the water for later this afternoon and evening. Could see thundershowers as well. I’ll be ready for next week’s sunshine.

  11. Mark bergal says:

    These ridges seem to stick around longer now and that is what worries me. They aren’t fleeting and don’t seem to budge that easily. I wonder what folks think about that as we approach Fall. We had enough sun and dry ovet the Summer. We really need a persistent low over us to get some worthwhile rain

  12. JERAT416 says:

    Are the fires out that were giving us the smoke? Hopefully fire danger doesn’t creep back up. I haven’t used my window AC in a while other than for the fan function since we have no ceiling fan.

  13. Paul D says:

    It’s been a fabulous 11 days of below normal temperatures! Not liking those numbers next week.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      I hear you Paul. I’m surprised Mark hasn’t posted anything about our water year. If I remember, we are way below average so we need the rain. 😦

      • Paul D says:

        No kidding! I’ve got a pond behind my house that gets covered in “scum” when it gets dry, and this year it was covered back in May and still is! When the “scum” goes away I know we’ve had a good soaking.

  14. bg says:

    With el nino developing by this winter and the CPC forecasting warmer then normal temps this fall through next summer 2019 im not surprised to see this warm weather comeing back.

  15. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Thank you for the update Mark. One thing I didn’t like from the blog post was you said, “This is the classic early fall warm weather pattern that many of us like” I’m sorry, but this is one person that doesn’t like it. I have been looking at the models and they seem to be setting up like last year. I’m hoping I’m wrong.

    Thank you for the info for the Conference. I’ll put it on my calendar.
    First 🙂

    • Gene says:

      Mark didn’t say everyone likes this type of weather pattern, he said “many of us like it.” I think he’s right. In fact, I suspect it would be accurate to say that most (though not all) people like this type of late summer/early fall kind of pattern. And yes, I know we need the rain, but it will come in time — it always does. In the meantime, everyone can go out and enjoy these beautiful, sunny, warm and smoke-free days before the fall rains hit in full force

      • Paul D says:

        Fall rains? With the way this year has gone, I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t get our usual fall rains.

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