Vacation Report & Hot Week Ahead

August 4, 2018

I just got back from spending the 2nd half of the week camping down at Diamond Lake, just north of Crater Lake.  It was fun and beautiful as it always is in the Cascades.

Check out the thick fire smoke the 2nd day…we couldn’t even see across the one mile wide lake!

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But then I think it was Thursday morning when we woke up to a wind switch with a crystal clear sky.  Note the difference from sunset Wednesday to Thursday morning

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Well, one big thing happened while I was gone; the all-important position of the hot upper-level ridge for next week is forecast to be much closer to us instead of well to our east.  Check out the map I showed you this past Monday…for this coming Tuesday.  It was looking cool & showery with a chilly upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest.  See the hot ridge over the southern Rockies?

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But just 24-48 hours later models decided that hot western ridge was going to bounce back up after a brief cooling this week.  Here’s the current forecast for the same time (Tuesday AM) from this morning’s run of the ECMWF ensembles:

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Ugh, the cool trough is way offshore and a hot ridge is developing overhead.  By Thursday it’s extremely hot anywhere east of the Cascades and well into the 90s west of the Cascades.

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One other big issue this week is that upper-level flow is from the south…expect lots of fire smoke throughout the week.  It’ll probably come and go, but lots of sickly yellow skies are ahead.  We’ve also had some lightning strikes in both the Oregon and Washington Cascades today…that’s bad news just before a heat wave too.

I’ll be back at work tomorrow with a more detailed look at this upcoming week’s forecast.  I’ll leave you with a neat view from the top of Mt. Bailey, about 3,000′ above Diamond Lake.  My son & I climbed it on Friday.  We only saw one person…and Brutus her dog.  A very quiet place!  Make sure you click on it for the panorama view:

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