A Very Warm 4th of July On The Way

6pm Tuesday

The weather shouldn’t affect your 4th of July plans Wednesday, but it’ll be one of the warmer Independence Days of the past 20 years.  High temperatures will reach well into the 80s.  Gusty east wind during the morning/midday in the Gorge, Cascades, & east metro means extreme fire danger so be careful with those fireworks!

Today was just about a perfect day with a few patchy low clouds breaking up to sunshine across NW Oregon and SW Washington.  It’s about as normal as it gets this time of year with a high temperature around 77-78 in the metro area.

Of course tomorrow is the 4th of July so let’s take a look at the numbers:

Mark IndependenceDayHistory2

Notice that we average a wet fourth once every 4 years.  Yet we’ve seen only one with measurable rain since 1999!  1998 & 1999 featured cool/showery days, but since that time only 2008 saw just .01″ of rain.  My kids, in high school, have never seen a wet Independence Day!  The past few years…

Mark IndependenceDayHistory3

We’ve seen a very cool airmass drop through the northern Rockies and eastern side of OR/WA the past 36 hours.  Timberline only had a high of 39…on July 2nd!  That cool airmass plus mainly clear skies last night led to a chilly morning.  I saw lots of 40s around the metro area and Eugene’s low of 38 was the coldest on record for the month of July.  I see a few spots had a light frost in Central Oregon too.  That includes Sisters & Prineville with Madras, Bend, & Redmond quite close to that 32 degree mark.

The airmass is warming right now and that peaks tomorrow afternoon before a weak upper-level low approaches the region at the end of the week.  One interesting twist tomorrow is a brief surge of easterly wind over the Cascades and through the Gorge from later tonight through about midday.  In fact gusts at Vista House will likely reach at least 40 mph during the morning hours.  By the way, if you’re headed out there the old highway closes in Corbett area from around 10am-Noon for a parade.  Obviously the combo of dry east wind + very warm temps means even higher fire danger through the early afternoon hours.  Easterly offshore wind plus 850mb temps around +17 by afternoon typically means a high in the lower 90s this time of year.  But tomorrow we’ll see lots of high clouds during the daytime, and that should keep highs in the 80s.  Regardless, it’s going to be a toasty 4th.  But the benefit is that temperatures will be comfortable for fireworks after sunset

Independence Day Fireworks Forecast

Beyond tomorrow, a summer weather pattern continues as we head deeper into July.  The hot ridge establishing itself across the Rockies and 4 Corners region the next few days seems to stay just far enough east to keep real hot stuff away from Western Oregon and Washington.  But temperatures will generally remain above normal for the next 7-10 days.  Note the ECMWF ensemble forecast for highs in Portland the next two weeks:

KPDX_2018070312_eps_min_max_15

Some ups and downs, but the trend is for summer heat to set in next week.  Rain?  Forget about it, unless we get marine drizzle of some sort (like yesterday).  The 2 week ensemble forecast from the ECMWF:

KPDX_2018070312_eps24_precip_360

Only 4 ensemble members show .10″ rain ANYTIME in the next two weeks…that’s mid-summer dry weather.

Have a safe Independence Day!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

 

36 Responses to A Very Warm 4th of July On The Way

  1. Climatechangeer says:

    BTW: For those of you that uses Linux Microsoft quietly bought them out. Conical which is what Linux uses to develop is owned by MS and so is Git Hub the central respiratory. people are just waking up and are NOT happy.

    • Phil in Beaverton says:

      Umm… No, Cimatechangeer, Microsoft has not “bought out” Linux, nor would it be possible for them to do so.

  2. Climatechangeer says:

    is this a result of Trump’s budget cuts?http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=PQR Porrtland NOW data (historical) the link abd many other NOW data sets lead to the same dead end and it’s been that way since the end of June………at least when I discovered it!

  3. runrain says:

    Get ready for summer next week starting Wednesday. 90’s plus more 90’s plus more 90’s.

  4. Roland Derksen says:

    We narrowly missed a thunderstorm here yesterday afternoon. A good Cb developed SW of the city. I heard thunder in the distance several times, but the cell was moving north instead of north-east. Some showers came overnight.

  5. Ken in Wood Village says:

    My sister and her husband are done in Puerto Vallarta right now. I told them they could see something thunderstorms the next few days. Well, she tagged me on her Facebook page and shared a video of a thunderstorm. Man am I so jealous right now. It was a short video but it was an amazing sight to see. I wish I was there cause I would be watching it for hours…lol

  6. W7ENK says:

    Spectacular sunset this evening.

    Enjoy!

  7. W7ENK says:

    Outside chance for a little lightning overnight.

    000
    FXUS66 KPQR 052238
    AFDPQR

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Portland OR
    337 PM PDT Thu Jul 5 2018

    “Models continue to show the upper level low slowly drifting north tonight before starting to move inland on Friday. Models continue to show some modest instability with the low as it starts to move inland late tonight. This instability is associated with a decent shortwave disturbance at the base of the upper level trough as seen in water vapor satellite imagery. As this shortwave lifts north tonight we could see some isolated elevated convection develop across the forecast area with storms moving from south to north. Most of the convective allowing models show some showers developing over the region tonight so will maintain the slight chance PoPs in the forecast. Now comes the forecast challenge of the day…will there be enough instability for the development of thunderstorms later this evening into tonight as the shortwave lifts north. Most of the CAMs show the potential for isolated thunderstorms developing over our CWA later this evening, with weak elevated CAPE and modest ThetaE lapse rates. However, the sounding profiles remain somewhat unimpressive and the steering flow is around 75-100kt so I suspect that any storms that do develop will not have a chance to hold together. Will keep the mention of thunder out of the forecast this afternoon and will let the swings shift reevaluate as things start to evolve.”

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=pqr&product=AFD&format=CI&glossary=1

    To be continued…

    • Ellen Wallace says:

      Hey Mark – it’s 3:48PM we here outside Kelso have just had a good down pour – according to my weather station in 22mins we had .19″ inches of rain. Heavy downpour. Temps went from 83* to it’s now siting at 69*. Humidity is sitting at 94%. No video. Highest wind 7 mph from the NNE (but I am in a valley so…).

  8. Roland Derksen says:

    Surprise showers arrived here yesterday evening. It became overcast by 5pm under warm temperatures (a maximum of 83F). I didn’t expect it to become so muggy.

  9. Climatechangeer says:

    This warm decade is a delayed/earth lag effect of what we should’ve been in the 90s if you know physics and where we’ve been climate wise historically not the media rubbish it’s not a surprise. And it will last for another 100 years minimum before we enter a new cool age.

    That doesn’t mean colder then normal years will come but they will be less and cool will be what used to be “normal” temps in terms of context. Now a days a cool summer will be what used to be an average run of the mill summer in the 1980s.

    • W7ENK says:

      Kyle, take your meds.

      • Climatechangeer says:

        And so should you! I actually look at stuff. You just spout whatever mainstreaem tells you to. If you take real physics it’s all there! You take liberal arts and listen to what they preach.

        Simple as that. Do your homework buddy and then tell me.

        BTE: What makes you think I’m him.

      • Climatechangeer says:

        Edit: By the way.

      • W7ENK says:

        It’s quite obvious, actually. Sentence structure, composition/order of your grammar, overall tone, and most definitely subject matter.
        Your reemergence is also right on schedule from the disappearance of the last alias you ran with.

        I’m just looking out for your psychological well-being Kyle, not making fun. It becomes very apparent when your meds need to be adjusted, because this blog becomes one of the outlets for your delusions. Again, not making fun, I just recognize your habitual patterns, and therefore I recognize you.

        FWIW, I studied computer science in college, particularly programming and network administration, with an emphasis on (people) management, and thus a healthy side of organizational psychology and behavioral analysis. Psychology has always been a subject of great interest to me, I find the human mind fascinating, which probably explains my uncanny ability to read people.

        Being somewhat familiar with your situation, I’m just trying to make sure you take care of yourself. That’s my only reason for the reminders about your meds.

        And if (on the off chance) you’re not Kyle, then my apologies, but you sure do present a heck of a lot like him.

  10. alohabb says:

    Not sure what BMAC is thinking about rain not probably hitting the floor, but it’s a steady rain here in aloha.

  11. JERAT416 says:

    Bust! At least in Tigard. Topped out maybe 81 degrees now down to 75, socked in all day humidity over 30%.

  12. W7ENK says:

    Massive thunderstorm blowing up over McMinnville, and about 5 frames in, KRTX goes down.

    But of course! 😂😂😂

  13. Andy says:

    Light rain here in Albany only 70 deg. Forecast sure wrong today. Have a great 4th. Maybe a blessing for the high fire danger.

  14. WEATHERDAN says:

    76 and p.c at 145 PM. Hot weather starts next week and goes until? Our climate has certainly warmed the last few years. Where it will go from here I will leave to the climatologists. Peace.

  15. Roland Derksen says:

    Have a great holiday, America. You need it!

  16. K says:

    There’s certainly a danger for fires…

  17. JERAT416 says:

    Hot and dry – minus the soggy June week we had.

  18. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    Hot and dry – April – October

    • Paul D says:

      Watch November be dry too – wouldn’t that be crazy!

      • Climatechangeer says:

        Not really considering we are in an inter glacial climate phase which historically lasts 100 to 200 years before a few hundred years of cooling then another warming (Not counting big warming and cooling events).

  19. Gene says:

    Hot and dry — summer!

  20. Paul D says:

    Hot and dry – yikes!

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