90+ Today, Much Cooler Tomorrow

7pm Sunday…

We’re in the slowest season of the year weather-wise; under a relatively stable summertime weather regime.  So the frequency of blog posts slows down too.

Today was another example showing what just a little bit of offshore flow can do.  Models have advertised for several days that 850mb temps would rise up above +15 and we’d get a light easterly drift through the Gorge in the morning.  Combine that with the highest sun angle of the year and temps skyrocketed.  We hit at least 91 in Portland with solid 90s up/down the Willamette Valley

Todays Observed Highs OrWa 2017

That means we’ve already seen 5 days at/above 90 degrees and we haven’t made it to July yet!

90 Degree Days In June

I’m confident we don’t have any 90 degree weather in the next week or so, in fact we should linger near normal temperature-wise over the next week.

90 Degree Days Summer Heat

By the way, there was just a little bit of fire smoke (nothing like last year!) that drifted in on light east/southeast flow the first half of today.  I noticed it on the east side of the metro area.  GOES16 imagery showed the smoke movement from the fires in north-central Oregon, I’ve highlighted the smoky area in yellow.

Capture

 

A sharp upper-level trough quickly swings through tomorrow morning, dropping a few light showers or drizzle in spots.  But then I expect some decent clearing in the afternoon.  So we might at .01″ or so to the PDX rain gauge for June.  It’s been our 2nd dry month; interesting that most measurable rain has fallen around weekends.  Of course the thunderstorms on Friday missed east & north metro, and part of south too, including PDX.

Mark Monthly Climate Rain Calendar

We are more or less tied for driest “late spring/early summer” in Portland.  Just taking the mid-April to late June rainfall, only 2015 is similarly dry.  Do you realize we’ve had only 1.27″ since the middle of April???  Amazing.  No wonder it looks like late July with everything browning up quickly now.  And it’s too late to get a cool/wet spring pattern now, so fire season and drought development is totally dependent on what happens over the next 3 months.  If we remain warmer than normal with no significant cool spells things are going to get rough by the time we get into August!

There does appear to be some sort of upper-level troughing attempting to come into the Western USA around this Thursday/Friday.  Note the 500mb height anomaly from the ECMWF ensembles

fri_jun29

That ridge offshore tries to move in over us those first few days of July, but then it’s interesting that all 3 models I generally look at through the 10 day period show another trough right overhead on the 4th of July.

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That said, it’s 10 days away.  It’s also interesting that my 17/16 year old kids haven’t seen it rain on the 4th of July in their lifetime.  We are overdue for a showery 4th, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen this time.  I think the main message here is that we have pretty typical late June/early July weather coming up in the next week or so.  No extremely warm or chilly weather, and just a threat of drizzle or a shower over a few different days.

Keep watering your lawns and gardens…it’s going to be a long summer!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

29 Responses to 90+ Today, Much Cooler Tomorrow

  1. runrain says:

    Just back from Omaha and watching Oregon State winning the national championship. Talk about humidity! And a good thunderstorm that canceled the first game of the finals.

  2. JohnD says:

    The “old timers” saying about summer in the PNW has been that “after July 4 you can count on good weather”! That still holds true; but in recent years you can bump that up by several weeks too!

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      More like several months. Summer starts in April lately.

    • Roland Derksen says:

      Tomorrow is my country’s national holiday (July 1) and just like your holiday 3 days later, the weather here tends to be noticed for it’s lack of sunshine. However, in recent years (2013,2014,2015) it’s been really warm. This year, though, it appears we’ll be closer to what we’ve traditionally seen: Cloudy skies, with a chance of showers and fairly cool. Worst July 1st ever was in 1994: 1.26 inches of steady rain before it mercifully ended in mid-afternoon.

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    Looks we shift to much warmer weather about July 4th. Can’t really say Summer started on July 5th this year because it has already been so warm and dry already. But this looks to kick off a multi day hot stretch. Great weather for the AMS picnic on the 14th. Peace.

    • Roland Derksen says:

      Looking forward to it. This June seems to be more like the Junes I used to recall in previous decades- rather unsettled. If the change is going to happen for you on the 5th, it comes here usually a few days later.

  4. lurkyloo says:

    I read that in Oman the low overnight temp was 107F. WTH?

    • W7ENK says:

      Las Vegas frequently has lows above 100 in the Summer. That’s not uncommon in the desert.

    • The low was actually 108.7F, and it is the new record for the highest 24-hour low temperature anywhere on Earth. Not only that, but it was recorded at a coastal location, so imagine those temps in combination with high humidity.

  5. Ellen Wallace says:

    Have had .04″ of rain so far. By the way, did the radar get fixed? I thought I had heard the thing was waiting for software?

  6. Roland Derksen says:

    We’re forecasted to get more showers here tomorrow and on friday (the morning). it appears we’ll have about as much precipitation for this June as we did last year’s.(In other words, a little below average)

  7. runrain says:

    Some wild weather at the College World Series here in Omaha. Turning hot later this week, though.

  8. Roland Derksen says:

    We had a good dousing of rain here late last night (0.43 inches). There were reports of lightning to the south of my location, but I didn’t hear thunder.

  9. Paul D says:

    Near normal for a week?!? YES!!!!! We definitely could use some rain, though.

  10. Muxpux (Castle Rock) says:

    Nice surprise thunderstorms tonight with the front. That was unexpected.

  11. Lee Wilson says:

    Any one else getting a thunderstorm at this time?

  12. Andy Demo says:

    Regarding your comment about only seeing wet on the weekends….

    As someone with a Pacific NW lifetime heritage, we have a very special word we use to describe the third day after two consecutive days of rain……”Monday”

  13. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Well, it was a little to warm for me today. I’m getting over having food poisoning yesterday. Not fun at all 😢 I’ll be glad to be in the 70’s or lower 80’s. 🤗🤗

    • Lee Wilson says:

      I been there..and that is not fun.
      It got to hot for me as well.

      And our son is a vulnerable child due to medical conditions.

      I was going to try and get a video, but i am to tired and the lightning strikes are every so often.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        Thank you for caring. I hope your son is doing well. I also have medical issues but I take care of it with meds. I have been there with wanting to make a video but to tired. I hope you got some rest. I was able to get some good rest last night compared to Saturday…lol.

  14. W7ENK says:

    Unexpectedly warm today, the forecast changed since Thursday. It was a pleasant surprise.

  15. JERAT416 says:

    I’m ok with seasonal. No need for hot. Today was pretty warm but not overly so. Looks pretty boring .

  16. WEATHERDAN says:

    91 today. My kind of weather. Peace.

  17. WEATHERDAN says:

    First. Peace.

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