Average Spring So Far Plus May Starts Warm

7pm Tuesday

Ahhh, I see we’ve entered the warm season now with a typical “clouds lasted all day” forecast bust.  Seems appropriate for the first day of May.  There was enough onshore flow to keep the clouds locked in most areas west of the Cascades today; I had expected widespread clearing this afternoon.  You can find plenty of clearing on the satellite image…but it’s east of the Cascades and in the eastern Gorge.

vis

That led to a cool day of course

Todays Observed Highs OrWa 2017

 

Tonight the clouds will linger some areas and partially break up in others.

Weak offshore flow tomorrow should clear us out.  That plus a warming atmosphere overhead means a MUCH warmer day.  We’ll go from around 60 today to mid 70s tomorrow!

Tomorrow marks the beginning of another prolonged stretch of warm & dry weather. Most likely we’ll see mainly above average temperatures through the 10th of the month.  That’s because upper-level ridging develops the 2nd half of the week; note the 500 millibar height anomaly from the ECMWF ensembles (EPS).  This is Friday:

Friday_500

Then next Monday afternoon, the 7th:

Monday_500

Notice the ridging is a little farther east.  Then next Thursday, the 10th:

Thursday_500

By later next week the ridging is centered over the Rockies but this is still a very warm pattern for us anytime during the warm season.

Take a look at ensemble rain forecasts. Each of the horizontal lines on the top half of the chart below is just ONE of the ensemble’s 51 members.  Time goes from now through the 15th of May.  The blue on the bottom is the average of all the members.  Note that we’re just about guaranteed dry through Friday now.  A few ensemble members are still trying to develop (light) showers over us Saturday & Sunday.  But in general things are looking dry through about next Tuesday.  The chance for showers/rain goes up the 2nd half of next week as that ridge pushes farther east.  Looks like more than half the members produce rain at some point late next week.

KPDX_2018050112_eps24_precip_360

So enjoy another taste of June over the next week.  It could be a lot wetter/cooler this time of year!

By the way, check out spring so far…as normal as it gets!

TEMPERATURE: A cool March but warm April (2nd warmest April of the past 10 years)

Mark Spring So Far 1

RAIN:  After all that complaining early in April???  We’re back to normal or slightly DRY for the season.  Hard to believe isn’t it?  Drier than normal in March and then just a little above average in April.

Mark Spring So Far 2

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

17 Responses to Average Spring So Far Plus May Starts Warm

  1. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Why did weather.us change the EURO model set up. Now I can’t see what the CAPE will be. It’s so frustrating to find a free website to look at some of the good models 😦

  2. Roland Derksen says:

    Yesterday we had a high of 73F here. That, to me, is the perfect “summer” temperature in the afternoon.

  3. alohabb says:

    Well, leaving for a 2 week trip to Hawaii and guess the excursion to Kiluea is now off the list.

  4. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I noticed something on the NWS website. Thought I would share with everyone.

    “A little early to jump all in just yet. On Wednesday, a negatively tilted upper level trough starts to push out the ridge over the Cascades. This process will bring a short period of time where S/SE mid level flow can develop, which looks to bring a chance for thunderstorms into the area. The best chance for thunderstorms will be along the Oregon Cascades”

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    May is always a welcome change for me. More sun than clouds and warmer overnight temps. But for those of you who dislike warmer temps, October is only a short 5 months away. Peace.

  6. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Tuesday afternoon could be very interesting. I see the GFS and EURO show a good CAPE over our area in the afternoon on Tuesday. 😉

  7. Paul D says:

    It snowed in northern AZ today – that’s just CRAZY!

  8. Roland Derksen says:

    I don’t want the 80’s either, but after a wet April (I had 6.58 inches here) and already over 51% of what my average precipitation for a whole year is, I want a dry May.

  9. Oregon Photo says:

    Here is hoping to a drier Spring

  10. Ken in Wood Village says:

    First 😀

    • K says:

      Second.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        LOL, I see a little warm up but I do see models bring cooler and wetter weather next week. Having a week or more of July weather in May is something I don’t want to see. It would be way to early for that type of weather. Don’t get me wrong, I want some dry weather but no upper 80’s please…lol 🙂

        • K says:

          True. Unless we make up for it with a stormy June and July, that kind of weather is NOT welcome here in May.

        • Gene says:

          I think a lot of people would welcome warm, sunny weather in May — interspersed, of course, with some periods of rain to keep our beautiful area looking green and lush. Today, for example, was a nice, warm, sunny day — great for getting outside and doing a lot of fun outdoor stuff. I saw a lot of smiling faces out and about, enjoying the sunny day

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