Four Days of “Summer” Ahead

7pm Sunday

What a nice run of weather the past 5 days…we’ve been in the 60s since Wednesday.  Several of those days have been warmer than forecast too!  I could do this for another week or so.

High Temp Last 13 Days

Instead we have a big jump in temperatures coming the next few days.  It’s going to feel like June & July Monday through Thursday this week.

What’s going on?  An unusually warm airmass will settle over us plus easterly flow develops at the same time.  Easterly wind in the warm season is a warming wind.  That’s because it’s keeping any cooling from the ocean away plus when it comes down the west slopes of the Cascades it warms heading downhill.   Take a look at the surface pressure forecast for 11am Monday from the WRF-GFS

wrf_11amMonday

You can see lower pressure (a thermal trough) centered right over western Oregon and then down into northern California.  High pressure has nosed into eastern OR/WA = easterly flow.  Then check out Tuesday 11am; the thermal trough is nicely established right on the Oregon Coast.  Gusty east or northeast wind will be blowing through the Gorge/Cascades/Coast Range at that time.  Anytime April through September, this is the warmest possible weather pattern for us.  80s in April, 100+ in mid-summer.

wrf_11amTuesday

By Wednesday at 11am the airmass has reached its warmest, but the trough has moved generally into the interior of western OR/WA.  Likely not so warm on the central coast of Oregon this day:

wrf_11amWednesday

How warm?  Models are all in excellent agreement that the 850mb temperature over Salem will reach around 11 tomorrow, 15 Tuesday, and 17 Wednesday PM.  Past situations like this push Portland’s high temperature into the 83-88 degree range; so I bumped up our 7-Day Forecast to 84-86-84 starting Tuesday.  I looked closely at April 2016, 2012, & 2004.  The ECMWF morning run had a secondary little push of easterly wind returning Thursday, but I’ve discounted that a bit for now.

In this pattern, as long as easterly wind makes it to the coastline, there’s no reason you can’t see the same temperature out there as here in the valleys.  As a result, high temperatures well into the 80s are likely at the beaches Tuesday, and possibly on the north coastline Wednesday too.

It’s interesting to note the past 7 years we’ve seen our first 80 degree temperature a bit “ahead of schedule”.

Mark First 80 Degree Day Heatwave

Most of us probably remember those two very chilly springs in 2010-2011.  Those two years we didn’t hit 80 until early June.

Alright, it’s dinnertime so I’m headed out.  Enjoy the warm weather because models are also in good agreement that at least some showers (and maybe thunderstorms) are coming at some point Friday or Friday night.  Almost all EPS (ECMWF) ensemble members show decent 24 hour precipitation totals by 5pm Saturday.  Maybe not a lot, but enough to ruin your freshly stained deck!  Get dry weather activities done by Thursday.

ecmwf_precip

 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

41 Responses to Four Days of “Summer” Ahead

  1. K says:

    So, what do the experts here think of thunderstorms on Friday (please be a good chance)?

  2. Sprayandpay says:

    Why are comments on mod? Yesterday was absolutely a Kodiak moment. Colors were SO vibrant like being in a 4K or maybe even 8K TV. Today the skies are yucky with trails everywhere forming into (fake) clouds that just look grosser and grosser as the day moves ahead.

  3. K says:

    Which storm was more impressive, December 11, 2014, or April 7th, 2017?

  4. Sean Johnson says:

    Strongest east wind in Salmon Creek I’ve seen lately this morning.

    • K says:

      Yeah, strong here in the West Hills too.

    • Andy Demo says:

      I was noticing the same thing here (halfway between Scappoose & Vernonia). A lot more wind than the big “windstorm” a few weeks ago, lots of branches and debris coming down. Checked to see if there were any National Weather Service bulletins, but surprisingly there are not.

  5. K says:

    Intense east winds here in the West Hills. Stronger than the wind event two weeks ago.

  6. W7ENK says:

    Hoping we get a little thunderstorm action. It’s been so long since we’ve seen a really good thunderstorm outbreak here in the immediate Portland metro area. In recent years, they always seem to skirt around us or fall apart and die just before moving in. It would be nice to be able to actually enjoy a decent storm overhead, especially at night!

    • K says:

      Maybe Friday could be our day?

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        I’m looking at the position of the Low, I wish it would get a little closer. The ideal area were I like to see it would be close to SW Oregon but it’s way further out in the Pacific. I mean, we get a South to Southwest flow but it’s not that strong. We still have a few more days for it to move closer 🙂

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        I was looking at the NAM and I’m thinking we could have nocturnal thunderstorms. I see that it shows some moisture starting really early in the morning. Around midnight to 3am. Lets hope the low gets closer 😉

        • boydo3 says:

          I hate nocturnal t-storms!
          Fall asleep and then at 2:00 AM have to go out and watch the lightning and then go back to bed and then, all too soon, get up and go to work…

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          Hehe, I know what you mean. The weather geek comes out of you because you want to see that perfect lightning and hear the rumbling of the thunder 😂😂😂

        • K says:

          Honestly I dislike nocturnal events in general. I want to SEE some exciting weather, darn it! On an unrelated topic, I just cannot seem to remember the Hanukkah Eve Storm here in Portland. Can someone rank its impact here (worse than 1995, worse than 1981, worse than 2014)?

        • W7ENK says:

          It’s easier to SEE lightning when it’s dark… just sayin. 😉

    • Muxpux (Castle Rock) says:

      Yeah, nocturnal storms suck for most people when it comes to observing, but for impact, I think they are awesome. They suck for “chasing” but when the whole sky lights up, it’s way more intense.

      • K says:

        Very true, but I love “seeing” the ominous clouds and wind against the trees (especially in the stronger thunderstorms). As someone who is more of a wind person, that’s typically what I look forward to during a thunderstorm (that and the thunder/lightning, obviously).

    • Sprayandpay says:

      Gee I wonder why……..couldn’t possibly be all that barium in the air from “trails”.

  7. Roland Derksen says:

    Looking forward to the warmth here this weekend, but not everyone in southern BC is; flood potential in the Okanagan valley is possible.

    • K says:

      Wait, is heavy rain expected up there? Or melting snowpack (more likely)?

      • Roland Derksen says:

        Nope- no heavy rain, that’s for sure. Just a lot of warm temperatures melting a higher than normal snowpack.

  8. Paul D says:

    Now there’s three 80+ days?!? 😦

  9. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I was looking at the models and it still looks like we could see thunderstorms by the end of the week. I know Mark says “Friday” but it’s starting to look a little on Thursday night now too. We have a few days to go until then, lets just see what happens 🙂

    • K says:

      I’m excited. Not usually this interested in “heat waves” (not sure of this counts as one) but the chance of thunderstorms always piques my interest.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        Hehe, me too. I remember last year when we had a very high chance of thunderstorms. I decided to go storm chasing. It was hard to chase them because when the storms really got fired up, it was becoming rush hour ;(

        I did see one that became severe. I was on I-205 going North bound and took the 212 exit and started going East to Damascus. I could see the thunderstorm and lightning coming out of it. I kept my radio on (instead of listening to Pandora…lol) when an emergency alert came on about the thunderstorm. I don’t remember the size of the hail (I think they were quarter size hail). I tried my best to get closer but couldn’t because the thunderstorm was moving to fast.

        Later that same day, I was watching Mark (it was either the 10pm or 11pm show) and he said there were thunderstorms coming up from the South. He showed I think the Skyline cam and you could see flashes. I decided to head out and go to Sandy, Oregon since the thunderstorms were moving that way. I posted the thunderstorm on YouTube back then and on here but I’ll post it again. I hope you enjoy it 🙂

        • K says:

          Very nice footage. Those flashes are so dramatic, lighting up the background and whatnot. I wish some of those stronger storms could have made it further into the metro area, but oh well.

      • Paul D says:

        Mark probably wouldn’t call it a heat wave, but we’re having three days at 20+ above normal. Sounds like one to me.

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          If I remember correctly, Mark calls it a heat wave if we have 3 consecutive days over 90+…I think …lol. I’m up at Crown Point. Winds are getting stronger but nothing like January…lol

        • W7ENK says:

          In our climate, that’s the standard definition of a “heat wave.”

          In a climate like Arizona, that’s just called Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday… etc…

        • Paul D says:

          Mark does like to use to 90+ to define a heat wave, but we can make our own definition, and so I declare Tuesday through Thursday a heat wave! Who’s with me? 🙂

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          I’ll call it a heatwave too. I don’t like it being really hot, especially this early in the year. I’m hoping this isn’t what to expect this year.

          The NWS has mentioned about thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning. I need to look at the models but I’m hoping we get hammered…lol 😂😂😂😂

        • W7ENK says:

          If NWS has mentioned it, then it’ll be gone with the next full suite of model runs… or it’ll stay in the forecast and then flat bust. That’s usually how things go.

          NWS Curse!!

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          LOL, I actually thought the same thing…hehe. I will admit though. The NAM has been very consistent with bring what looks like thunderstorms around midnight on Thursday night and Friday morning. The next few runs should give us a better idea on what will happen.

  10. It seems crazy that 2011 was seven freaking years ago. I distinctly remember the first 70+ day that year, April 1st. I walked down to the Sandy River that day and seemed to feel unbelievably warm, after a chilly winter and March without any 60+ days. Haven’t had the same feeling since, probably because the 60+ days we’ve had in February and March since 2012 spoiled it. Even winter 2016-17, as wet and gloomy as it was, still had a few mild, dry days here and there.

  11. Ken in Wood Village says:

    First 🙂

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