Snow Tonight? No, Unlikely In Lowlands

10am Friday

Last night was COLD!  Lots of mid/upper teens in the coldest part of the metro area.  I had a 15 at my house which was the coldest of the winter.  But it’s late February and daytime temps rise quickly.  Most of us are around 32-35 degrees at 11am.  We’re headed for high temps around 40 by 4pm.

There is talk of another snow evening this evening and overnight in the lowest elevations.  But as mentioned in my previous post, IT’S A NON-EVENT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT


  2. Temperatures will likely stay ABOVE FREEZING from now through Sunday evening for almost all the metro area and lowland locations
  3. Light snow showers or rain/snow mix WILL develop this evening for most of us, then quickly change to rain showers between 7-10pm below 1,500′
  4. Near/above 1,000′ there could be a brief accumulation on non-road surfaces in the metro area between 4-7pm, that’s a big IF moisture arrives as anything other than light flurries.  Best spot for an inch or so (before warming in the late evening) might be north Clark county & Columbia county hills well above 500′.
  5. By 10pm, snow will only be sticking near/above 2,000′.  Late tonight the snow level drops back down to around 1,500′ after a cold front passes, but that’s it.


TO SUMMARIZE  You can go about your normal lives now through the weekend; it’s unlikely weather would affect your plans…except for rain of course


Why don’t I think we’ll see sticking snow this evening?  It’s because this IS the setup that DOESN’T give us snow.  This isn’t a “BC Slider”.  It’s a weather system sliding by to the north with a cold front passing through in the middle of the night.


We don’t have any supply of cold & dry air to keep things cool like with our typical snowstorms.  In fact it’ll be a breezy west wind by morning out there.


Check out the WRF-GFS at 4pm.  That’s cold enough to bring snow (at least in the air) down to sea level

The temperature contour is up around 2,500′.  Note the 2-3 millibars southerly flow from Eugene to Portland.   Then 10pm…

Wow, that is a classic southerly warm-up signature.  Above freezing west of the Cascades up to over the 2,000′ elevation!  About 6 millibars surface pressure gradient from Eugene to Olympia.  This will give us a south wind in the valley/metro area 10-20 mph with gusts to 30!  It doesn’t snow here in that setup.  I’ve also checked cross-sections and soundings from models.  All show the same thing.  I will be home here this evening at 1,000′ in the Cascade Foothills.  I’d be surprised if I get more than a dusting even up here.


Here’s the WRF and ECMWF…not even a hint of sticking snow at lowest elevations


I didn’t mention surface temperatures, which will be well above freezing through the evening for all lowland locations.  We should top out around 38-40 this evening, then temperatures hold steady in the mid-upper 30s through the night.  We may actually pop up to 40 or beyond after 10pm.

I’ll be off until Sunday, time for a weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen




103 Responses to Snow Tonight? No, Unlikely In Lowlands

  1. cgavic says:

    sandy snow….snow has returned to the picture here in sandy at 885 ft. over an inch with heavy snow falling. Began at 4:20 p.m.

  2. 36˚F and flurries this morning here, but they’re wet, gloppy flurries and overall there’s been significant melting overnight.

    • Lee Wilson says:

      We had sticking snow._now comes the rapid melt.Fun

    • Roland Derksen says:

      No “gloop” here this morning: A sunny stunning sight of snow laden trees and landscape. Had almost 7 inches from yesterday morning. Now it’s starting to melt, but what a beautiful sight when I got up!

  3. Longview 400 ft says:

    All night the temp has stayed around 33.1 and it has snowed off and on through the night. Now within this last hour the temp has warmed up to 35.2.
    Since last evening about an inch of snow has fallen, which give me 11 inches for the week.

    Now, I think, the transition to rain, begins today. Well see.

  4. cgavic says:

    this is one of those rare occasions where the snow event didn’t end with the gorge-affect snow

  5. Jason Hougak says:

    I awoke to the sounds of noise in the attic thinking a family of critters had moved in. Laying in bed it would go quiet so I’d drift back to sleep only to reawaken to the same noise. Finally I had enough and needed to settle this. I headed down the hall checked the temperature as I have a habit of doing and saw it was 34F. Went out the front door to see it was very windy and snow was falling off the tree limbs crashing onto the roof. Well at least I don’t have to put any bullets through the walls.

  6. Lee Wilson says:

    Here is what we awoken to.

    The temperature 34°F as of this posting .

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    ECMWF panels have showed below normal heights over Hudson Bay all winter. This moves towards Alaska and splits heading toward the North Pole and another half headed right over us during next week. Appears March is going to roar in like a Lion.

  8. Jason Hougak says:

    Snowing hardest it has all week up here in the foothills.

  9. Lee Wilson says:

    Were at 34°F
    And._._I will let the video speak for itself .

  10. W7ENK says:

    Complete lack of precip.

    Total bust!

  11. Longview 400 ft says:

    Well, with all the snow that fell tonight, about a quarter to a third of an inch. Not really sure because the wind kept blowing it around.
    Got down to 32.7 tonight, now 33.1.
    The snow was really dry to, just floating around.

  12. W7ENK says:

    Well, it looks like everyone got it wrong, all the way around. It’s not so much the temperature that’s the issue, despite a stiff and gusting Southerly wind it’s 34 degrees right now — plenty cold enough for snow — but the overwhelming lack of moisture. It’s partly cloudy out there, and I can see stars through all the holes!

    Where’s the precip??

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