Wet & Windy Monday, Then Mild November Weather Ahead

7pm Sunday

So far November has been cooler than normal in Portland and rainfall just slightly below normal…the temps:

It appears the middle & 2nd half of the month will likely be milder (compared to normal).  That’s because all models are advertising a typical onshore-flow pattern with wet weather systems frequently moving through the area the next 10 days.  None of these the next week appear to be a big storm by any means.  In fact I don’t see a setup for widespread flooding or damaging wind.  But we DO have one strong low pressure system moving by offshore overnight and the back side of it will swing onto the Washington coast by midday tomorrow (the poisonous tail of the bent-back occlusion!).  That’s some serious weather nerd lingo there.  That has prompted NWS to issue a High Wind Warning for the Coast and Wind Advisory for the valleys:

The 980-985mb low is a little farther offshore than we would typically “want to see” for a significant windstorm in our area.  And here in the valleys the isobars (lines of equal pressure) are not oriented right for a big south wind in the valley.  Still, gusts 30-40 mph can bring down a tree just about anywhere or cause some outages…so expect some of that tomorrow.  Strongest wind both areas will likely be around midday.  If you are right on a beach or exposed headland I suppose you could easily get a gust higher than 65 mph too, and somewhere north of the Columbia River on the beaches I could see gusts above 65 mph too as that occlusion comes onshore midday.  Those numbers are for 95% of the coastal population.

One other thing about tomorrow, it IS the type of day (based on several parameters) in which we have seen funnel clouds or worse out at the coastline in the past.  No, I’m not saying there is going to be a tornado on the beaches Monday, but SOME TORNADOES IN THE PAST AT THE COASTLINE HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SETUP WE HAVE IN PLACE TOMORROW.  We’ll be keeping an eye out of course.

Beyond tomorrow we have a few colder systems coming through which means snow in the mountains!  Keep in mind there is still around 20″ on the ground at 6,000′ (Timberline Lodge).  ECMWF projects maybe 2-3 feet of fresh snow above 4,000′ through Friday.  We’ll see if the weekend precipitation either shows up or is cold enough for snow up there.

This should be enough to open more runs/lifts at Timberline and maybe enough to get Meadows open for the weekend before Thanksgiving too.  And there appears to be plenty more valley rain and mountain snow beyond as we head into Thanksgiving Week.  Take a look at the ensemble-average upper-level flow (lines) and departure from normal (colors) this Thursday.  These are the ECMWF ensembles.

Cool troughing over us later this week means near normal temps and plenty of mountain snow.  Then 4 days later…the Monday of Thanksgiving Week

Troughing is a bit farther offshore, this is a mild and generally wet pattern.  Then Thanksgiving itself…11 days away:

All models keep showing ridging over the Western USA, but we appear to be on the edge of that, and over the past few days they have been shoving it farther east.  Again, this is a wet pattern with near normal temps.  Maybe a bit above normal in the lowlands since we’ll have a lot of cloud cover (no cold nights).  Looks great for mountain snowpack building too.  When the weather pattern appears to be somewhat settled in the longer-range, I show this “12 DAY TREND” graphic in the 2nd half of the 10pm newscast.

Right now some of you may be wondering if there’s any chance for snow/ice at Thanksgiving (my wife just asked today!).   Or if there will be any sort of dry spell so you can finish up an outdoor project.  That’s why I created this graphic…to give you a “peek” farther ahead without any sort of detail.  No one can forecast exactly what’s going to happen in two weeks (or even 10 days), but in times like this we can sometimes give a general idea of the trend.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

44 Responses to Wet & Windy Monday, Then Mild November Weather Ahead

  1. Wendy - Silverlake, WA says:

    This wind is getting a little out of hand. Almost 48 hours of it now and just when you think it’s dying down, it comes back even stronger. Is there an end in sight????

  2. Mark Nelsen says:

    I think I did fine, if anything the Oregon coastal forecast was a bit high. Gusts were 35-45 mph in metro area and 50-60 along the Oregon coast. I did see a 61 at Seaside. 66 up north on Long Beach

    • W7ENK says:

      I would agree. The first bit of wind overnight was strong, but the NWS forecast for stronger in the afternoon/evening was a bust. So all in all, it worked out that your forecast was spot on.

      Well played!

  3. Lee Wilson says:

    It has returned with a vengeance.
    Mark…its not wet..but the bloody winds are getting pretty dang strong…it seems to come and go, just as you thinks over …oh my…that was a blast….any ways back to as what i was saying..

    If you want i can make more recordings and post them…but i hate to say it…but..i think you were a tad off. On the wet and windy..

    It is more like blustery there goes a 50 gallon garbage can heading down the road.

    Has there been any outages reported?

  4. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    This is the kind of stuff we need to see in Alaska this winter.

  5. Lee Wilson says:

    In my opinion, I think were going to get clipped on the edge of a low that may make us a tad on the chilly side, rather or nt we get snow on thanks giving, I don’t think we will, but we just may see some frost 🙂 before thanks giving :)..Well that is my opinon, Imay be right or I maybe wrong. I am just having fun 🙂

    I do how ever think in the near future we are looking at at least one debillitating winter event. And for that I think we should prepare.

  6. Wendy - Silverlake, WA says:

    Except for the lack of rain, this is an exact repeat of yesterday. It’s just as windy outside, if not a little more solid wind with less gusts.

  7. Lee Wilson says:

    I am looking at a weather app, and it has the low creeping east.
    But it is what is behind that has me curious as to waht our weather will be like. Looks like some colder air may dip down.

  8. Wall, that was a somewhat exciting afternoon. By some miracle, my power stayed on. Things have really quieted down in the last half hour or so.

    • Lee Wilson says:

      We are still getting some good blast of wind.
      Our neighbors trees are short a few limbs.
      The limbs are large enough (size of a man’s arms diameter wise) to have put dents in your cars roof had it been under it or kill a child. I think his trees may be dying any ways.

  9. Lee Wilson says:

    We have had, wind, sun and rain.
    The sun breaks were very much appreciated
    We had times of calm and times of..is it going to rip the roof off as the place shook at times from the wind.
    Got to love our storms..unless You are driving the passes..
    Then God have mercy on you.

  10. Lee Wilson says:

    I see Banks Oregon may have had a tornado..
    Can some one conform it?

  11. Wendy - Silverlake, WA says:

    Nice and windy today. It was enough to take off part of the playhouse roof and the entire roof and doors off my greenhouse.

  12. ron says:

    I drove 101 from Astoria to Seaside for work and then back. Very stormy today–lots of sideways rain and strong southerly wind. I love this time of year!

  13. Alohabb says:

    Has been prett sunny this afternoon with breezy winds. Nothing out of the ordinary here.

  14. W7ENK says:

    Was awakened around 1:15 this morning by some fairly hefty wind gusts ripping through the neighborhood. Lasted until maybe 2am, perhaps longer. Had a peak wind gust of 27.4 mph before going calm for the rest of the morning. Breezy again this afternoon in Downtown Portland, but nothing like early this morning. Strongest winds were forecast for between 1 and 4 pm. We’ll see what happens in the next few hours.

  15. Jack says:

    Breezy and some small gusts. Nothing major, is consistent with the forecast. Sun is out. Good all around.

    Camas, WA | 600′ elevation

  16. Nahtalkin says:

    While waiting for Brian’s weather report I am enjoying Pete’s wonderful news story telling. These are just like little fairy tales, I just can’t get enough! So much better than factual in-depth news of the good old days.

  17. Alohabb says:

    Non event really for Washington county.

  18. WEATHERDAN says:

    Peak wind gust today S at 37 mph. Lots of sunbreaks out now. Typical blustery November day. Turkey day looks mostly dry and mild. High around 56. Not too shabby. Peace.

  19. Roland Derksen says:

    It’s fairly breezy here at present, but I haven’t seen the high wind gusts yet that the forecast for my area has been saying. I’m not complaining- we ‘ve seen breaks to blue sky as well.

  20. Lee Wilson says:

    Nice and Breezy here 🙂
    Torrents of rain, nice breezes, even got some blue sky!

  21. Looks like the storm track is now headed in a direction that favors my area (Puget Sound) getting really hammered. NWS just upgraded the wind advisory to a high wind warning with gusts to 65 this afternoon. Looks like I’m about to get my first power outage of the season.

  22. Alohabb says:

    Looks like a day where we see several hours of wind gusting to mid 30 mph range , so it seems as if the power crews will be busy today.

  23. Paul D says:

    So to summarize, Mark said we’re having a white Thanksgiving and a tornado in Portland tomorrow! Yeehaw!

  24. JohnD says:

    Yawn. Oh well it is only November.

  25. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Beware the poisonous tail! (deadly)

  26. W7ENK says:

    I think you’re downplaying this a bit, Mark. NWS had a Wind Advisory up in the Willamette Valley and PDX metro for gusts to 50 mph tomorrow.

    https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=16961161

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