Lots of Wet Ahead! November Gray & Rain Here to Stay

6:30pm Tuesday

This fall has been a bright one with lots of sunny days but still plenty of rain in between those days.  But now it appears we’re headed into a long period of gray and rain.  Let’s hit the highlights first:

  1. After today I don’t see a single totally dry day in the next week and beyond.  In fact it’s possible we get some sort of measurable rain almost every day the next two weeks!
  2. Expect a lot of gray, but that is normal from November through February…get used to it, book tickets for the tropics, or drive about 16 hours south on I-5.
  3. Through Saturday the rain won’t be very heavy, but weather systems will likely be stronger NEXT week.
  4. There is no sign of valley snow/ice in the next 10+ days; this will be a mild and wet weather pattern, in fact a bit warmer than what we saw today

You want to see gray?  Take a look at the ECMWF cloud cover forecast from all of the ensembles.  Blue=cloudy, white=clear

Note that almost the entire two-week period the ensemble average is more than 80%.  Then see the total rainfall forecast for the next 10 days.  Lots of rain, yet no specific setup for flooding or a pineapple express.

In the short-term we’ve got a classic Gorge ice/snow storm setup for Wednesday and Thursday…except the atmosphere is just a bit too warm to get either one all the way down to freeway level.  If you live up above 500′ (more likely closer to 1,000′), expect your first snow to ice event starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing through at least Thursday midday.

Peak gusts tonight through Wednesday evening at the west end of the Gorge will likely reach 70 mph in the usual cold-season windy spots.  That’ll be accompanied by sideways rain and 35-40 degree temps…not real pleasant I think…

There is one big bit of good news though…this wet pattern for the lowlands will turn into a heavy snow in the Cascades.  Snow levels through Sunday generally remain above the passes, with a good foot or more accumulating at the ski resorts above 5,000′.  Then we get a HUGE dumping Monday through Friday next week.  ECMWF shows a solid 3-4 feet snow at/above pass elevations:

Even if we get half of that, there’s a good chance we’ll have some decent skiing starting up the weekend before Thanksgiving.  If so, that’ll be fantastic to get the ski season started in mid-November!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

32 Responses to Lots of Wet Ahead! November Gray & Rain Here to Stay

  1. pappoose in scappoose says:

    National Weather Service Portland OR
    421 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

    …WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST MONDAY…

    http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pqr&wwa=wind%20advisory

  2. Garron 1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport says:

    According to the latest NWS daily weather memo…WINDSTORM COMING, OR NOT….It looks like the freshest weather models want to take this incoming storm a bit more off shore and to the north. But, a tiny shift in the track could be fairly significant here locally. The beaches will get hit north of Tillamook pretty good, but a 50 mile change in how close to the coast this storm passes will make a difference inland between gusts of 25-30, and gusts of 45-50.

  3. Lee Wilson says:

    We got some nice sun breaks this morning.
    Making allready dark clouds more ominous.

    That low looks like it might be carrying some cold air be hind it…
    Only wish it was a tad stronger.
    Wouldn’t mind seeing white turkey day 🙂
    Well got to get hack to lowering the PUD bill.

    Were sitting at around between 17 kwhrs to 23 kwhrs.
    Not sure becaose the pud graph has gone all estimate on us for the last four days.
    Ah well..who knows .

  4. Alohabb says:

    Apparently we have a wind situation coming soon. Looks like that low really needs to be watched as we could see a situation with 50-60 mph winds here in PDX. 30-40 being predicted now can be pretty damaging, not sure why Tracy didn’t even mention the possibility this morning and called it mainly a coastal event. Something to keep an eye on, and it begins later tonight.

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Special Weather Statement
    National Weather Service Portland OR
    525 AM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

    …WINDY WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON MONDAY…

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&wfo=pqr&sid=PQR&pil=SPS

  6. JERAT416 says:

    Too funny, don’t let your Mini Cooper get stuck in the snow on the Timberline camera! I saved the picture but I don’t think I can share it here.

  7. JohnD says:

    November is looking like the typical mild/wet that we expect. My experience has been that in the very rare years when there is winter weather at sea level, the later winter months go bust. So here’s to enjoying the next few rainy weeks. AND the “possibility” of real winter weather coming in December-January!

    • Roland Derksen says:

      That’s often my experience as well: Take November 2008 and 2016 as recent examples. If anyone had told me halfway through those months we’d have a cold winter ahead, I’d have seriously doubted it.

      • Gene says:

        And to further support your point, last year at this time (early November) we had some record high temperatures — the calm before the storm?

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      1955 had a big mid November Arctic blast and Snowstorm and a cold rest of Winter. Same for 1970-1971 and 1978-1979 and 1985-1986. But yes John many times when November is cold the rest of the winter is milder. Peace.

      • Lee Wilson says:

        I remeber well 78 and 79 aswell as 85 and 86,
        In winter of 78-79, we had 3 feet of snow at 500 feet.
        We also had high winds .at times..we lost power for 3 days..but we had a fire place..good ole Benjamin Franklin pot belly stove..best heater we ever had lol. And we kids enjoyed no school for a week..untill we had home work lol..

        We had our own cows..and we did eat them ..we had a 20 cubic foot freezer…full of meat..we ate well..
        The freezer was in n the barn and disnt thaw out because of the cold temps.

        We kids went and got our tobogins. And made a sled run off the hill of Dierbert Road..it was fun 🙂

        In 85 and 86…i have no memory…

  8. lurkyloo says:

    If anyone’s interested, there’s a weather documentary on OPB tonight at 9pm. It’s titled “Wild Weather.” Channel 10.2. Geek out, folks!

  9. Jason Hougak says:

    Elk hunting north of John Day. It was 4F Wednesday morning in our valley. Today it was 34F in the morning. It rained and felt colder with 34F and rain then 4F and clear skies. Don’t get me wrong 4F was cold but with low humidity it wasn’t as bone chilling.

    • Nahtalkin says:

      I know what you mean, two years ago I spent the night in the back of my truck over in White Bird Canyon, Idaho and it was 7 degrees when I got up. I was very comfortable in my bed but was a tad bit chilly when I got out to build a fire.

      Did you get your elk?

  10. WEATHERDAN says:

    Not a bad day outside today, not a good one either. Just sorta blah. Good news about the mountain snow though. Peace.

  11. sds says:

    Timberline is planning to open 7 days a week weather permitting this Friday the 10th of November. Ski season is open for riding the big white wave!

  12. Anonymous says:

    So, what’s the thinking about winter in lowland Metro Portland? Gonna want snow tires again?

  13. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    This appears to be yet another under-performing rain event for Portland. Besides the one very wet week in October, it seems that every single event has missed the forecasted rain total by a significant margin.

  14. W7ENK says:

    For being within the realm of “normal” for November, that’s still a ridiculous amount of clouds and rain.

  15. Roland Derksen says:

    It’s pretty mild here now (48F). The arctic air retreated uneventfully. Now we have to get ready for the rain. It’s about time: This November with the exception of the 2nd has really been dry so far.

  16. Brett S says:

    I’m flying to mid 70’s LA on Thursday! One last feeling of warm air for me!

  17. High Desert Mat says:

    1st!! Been a long time coming.

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