Weekend Flood Watch; Beautiful Fall Weather Follows

7pm Friday

We’ve made it to Friday and here we are sitting on the cusp of a soaker this weekend.

Nothing has changed from my thinking last night at this time (see previous post).  Steady rain associated with an atmospheric river arrives in western Oregon and SW Washington right after midnight.  That steady rain continues through tomorrow afternoon in the lowlands, then mainly shifts over/north of the Portland metro area tomorrow evening.  The cold front then slides back south during the morning hours Sunday.  So during the day Sunday rain will end first up around Kelso/Longview, then end by sunset down around Eugene.  Total rain?  1.5 to 3″ in the lowlands and 6-8″ additional in the wettest parts of the Cascades.  These totals will likely be enough (by Sunday morning) to bring localized ponding of water or flooded areas on roads.  This won’t be enough to give us any sort of widespread river flooding though; especially since we’re only looking at 24-30 hours of steady rain in the lowlands.

Wind is also an issue tomorrow; not a big windstorm but enough to bring us a few power outages.  That’s especially the case since leaves are still on the trees.  A high wind warning is up for the coastline…

and a wind advisory for the western valleys…

So to wrap things up…Saturday still looks to be a soaking wet day, with rain tapering off in the evening from Portland south.   Sunday starts wet, but then rain ends by midday, hopefully just in time for the 1pm Timbers match.

One would think this will be the beginning of the big wet season, but models say that isn’t the case.  Upper-level ridging wants to linger just to our west for the next 10+ days.  The result will be an extended period of mainly dry weather and beautiful fall weather.  Take a look at the ECMWF model ensemble forecast of 24 hour rainfall.  The big surge over the weekend and then just a few scattered showers here and there on the different ensemble members for the following 2 weeks.  Pretty good for the end of October and the first few days of November!

The blue line at the bottom is the ensemble average…quite dry.

Try to stay dry this weekend and hopefully we’ll avoid any big flooding issues.  But if you’re driving around tomorrow through midday Sunday, expect lots of water on the streets.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

27 Responses to Weekend Flood Watch; Beautiful Fall Weather Follows

  1. pappoose in scappoose says:

    …Select 48 Hour Rainfall Reports (ending at 1 PM Sun Oct 22)…


  2. Roland Derksen says:

    Judging from the more recent comments, ti seems the storm went a bit further south than earlier forecasted. I had only 0.57 inches yesterday here, although some following showers were pretty heavy. But this morning and afternoon we had some good sunny breaks too, so all things considered we escaped most of it.

  3. Nahtalkin says:

    I was posting this comment early this morning around 3 AM when I was so rudely interrupted by a power outage just as I was hitting the ‘Post Comment’ button. So I’ll try again….

    The Native Americans have names for the different intensity and types or rain and storms i.e. “Female rain” for the quiet steady soothing rain and “Male rain” for the heavy downpours etc. Well last night I think we had “The Angry Hawaiian Rain”!

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    4.32 inches of rain last 4 days. 2.02 fell in just 12 hours. Next 16 days look dry and mild. Thank God for sump pumps. Peace.

  5. sds says:

    Just totaled the precip. from Timberlines’ telemetry between 10/19 and 10/22 at 7AM–over 12 inches and still coming down.

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    What a wild ride last night. Had an emergency service call for a well pump not working at 8:30pm off Foster Rd. The transformer blew on the pole earlier. Go to job and it turned out to be a PGE issue still with voltage problems from the new transformer. Drive home and there was a car that drove in the ditch and heavy rain. Truck was hit by falling limb.Got back home just before midnight. There was a lot more wind then I think was predicted and that solid band of precipitation was intense. Lost power just after midnight and am not sure when that’ll be restored. Coffee is almost done!☕️😁

  7. Wendy - Silverlake, WA says:

    Just under 3 inches of rain since midnight.

    • Paul D says:

      Only 1.1″ in Hillsboro yesterday. Forecast was 1.6 to 2, so it looks like most of it went north!

  8. Lee Wilson says:

    I beg to differ this is a serious storm.
    I do not know where you are Mark Nelson, but this is very bad.
    I have people telling me parts of Ocean Beach highway is under water.
    and I don’t know what the police were doing down there at the corner with there lights flashing…I didn’t go and and check..

    it will be interesting to ee how fast the columbia river came up though, will get a video of that tomorow.

  9. umpire says:

    What a welcome difference from last October! Around 10/01 last year I put the yard tools and paint supplies away. This week I plan on speed scraping and priming, plus lots of leaf raking.

    • Paul D says:

      With the upcoming week being dry, the raking will be nice since the leaves will be dry!

    • October 2016 was definitely horrible (though November turned out to be decent). This October, however, has been almost perfect as I’m concerned: plenty of sunny, warm days; crisp, clear nights; and a couple of a washouts to keep everything watered.

  10. Lee Wilson says:

    Up North, “Victoria” jsut had a tornado…at least the weather Ap I have is stating that.Parts of the Winachee Forests are undert a winter weather advisory.

    From what I am seeing is a long atmospheric river .
    were getting quite a few gusts..Here in the Castle rock area.

    I even filled my Washig Maching with rain water.4x if that gives you an idea on the amount of rain that is coming down.

  11. W7ENK says:

    Well, aside from a few random light gusts that did little more than shake water out of the trees, I’m getting the impression that the wind component of this storm is going to largely be a bust for us here in the Valley.

    • JERAT416 says:

      Well it is just a wind advisory anyhow. It was generally supposed to be just windy and blustery. It isn’t supposed to be a windstorm.

  12. W7ENK says:

    Not like we didn’t see this coming…



  13. Roland Derksen says:

    Not much action here for the last few hours: some drizzle presently with slowly rising temperatures. The main bout of rain has yet to arrive.

  14. W7ENK says:

    Wind gust forecast has been upped by NWS, now calling for gusts to 50mph in the Willamette Valley, starting Noon (now) and lasting until 4AM tomorrow.


    Wind just started to pick up here in Milwaukie. Still mostly calm.

  15. Alohabb says:

    Wow, another channel says I’ll only get an inch of rain in Hillsboro between now and Sunday. Why did I clean my gutter???

    And we must have had some good wind gusts cause I woke up this morning to see my large patio umbrella blown across the yard, and it was weighed down.

  16. Nahtalkin says:

    Tracy is looking much more studious and by the day seems to growing into her position as the morning weather reporter!

  17. Paul D says:

    Dry five days in a row in late October?!? Ain’t that a hoot!

  18. longviewer says:

    Sometimes it pays to live on the hill-top (800′ hills behind Longview) rather than at the bottom where the waters converge! As long as the hill doesn’t choose to slip of course. We survived 20″ last October so I expect we’ll do just fine.

  19. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Thanks for the update, Mark. Looking forward to the nice weather next week.

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