A Beautiful Weekend; Showers Return Tuesday

October 15, 2017

9:30pm Sunday

The weekend is pretty much over now but wasn’t that fantastic for October?  Both days were mostly sunny with a chilly start (more so Saturday) and nice afternoons.  By the way, the 36 at PDX Saturday morning was the coldest temperature we have seen in the first half of October in a generation!  October 15th 1992 we hit 33 degrees.  Today was obviously warmer…high temperatures peaked in the mid-upper 60s in the metro area.

High Temp Last 13 Days

It’s always funny how quickly things change from late September to late October.  Just 2-3 weeks ago we were thinking high temperatures in the 60s were chilly, yet I think most of us would agree today was a spectacular day.  We have one more beautiful day tomorrow and then we get into a mild & wetter pattern.  This October has been totally different from last year.  At this point last year we had received 5″ of rain and almost no sunshine.  This year we’re seeing piles more sunshine.  In fact if we were cloudy EVERY DAY after tomorrow the rest of the month, that would just give us our average number of cloudy days…

Mark Cloudy Days Summer

 

The jet stream is setting up to our north much of this week with Oregon on the mild side of that jet.  That means snow levels will remain high until Friday and we won’t see any heavy rain in most of our viewing area.  Check out RPM forecast of rain the next 2.5 days and you see very little falls south of the Columbia River in the interior of Oregon

RPM Precipitation Accumulation

Yet by the end of the week, a 2nd atmospheric river event will likely trigger some flooding across NW Washington and SW British Columbia just to our north:

ECMWF Precipitation Accumulation

With the warm airmass overhead, we can expect mainly rain in the Cascades until a cold front comes through Thursday night or Friday morning

ECMWF Snow Level From 850mb Temps

Most likely 5-8″ new snow will fall at Timberline and possibly as low as Government Camp Friday and/or early Saturday.  That’s after quite a bit of melting during the workweek.  I think it’s unlikely we’ll see a re-opening of that Pucci chairlift at Timberline again this weekend.  That was amazing to see 27″ snow on the ground down below 6,000′ the past few days.  A nice change from our warmer Octobers.

Enjoy the sunshine Monday!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen