Goodbye to 80 Degree Days

6pm Thursday

Today we hit 86 in Portland, the 2nd consecutive day we’ve reached well into the 80s

As expected the onshore flow…well, flowed onshore quickly this afternoon at the beaches.  Check out mid-afternoon temps vs. highs yesterday (in red) on the Oregon Coast

Today was the 79th day at/above 80 this warm season in Portland.  That’s the 3rd greatest number of 80 degree days we’ve seen (chart doesn’t count today)

As I’ve mentioned regularly, our summers have been warming somewhat dramatically the past 30-40 years.

Portland averages about 15 more days above 80 than back in the mid-20th century.  That’s great if you live in the foothills or mountains in the summer, but not so great if you live down in one of our cities near sea-level (inland).    I’m bringing up the “80 degree chat” because I think it’s unlikely we hit 80 again this season.  Of course it’s POSSIBLE we hit 80 for the next 3 weeks, but unlikely

Models are showing a normal to below normal temperature weather pattern for the next week or two.  The upper-level pattern is not very wet, with ridging in the Gulf of Alaska.  But we remain on the cool side of that ridge.  Note the Tuesday, then NEXT Saturday GEFS (GFS ensembles) chart:

Then the ECMWF showing a weaker ridge, but same general pattern in its week 2 ensemble.  This is the average of all 7-14 day maps

A few thoughts on the next 10+ days based on this:

  1. With weak systems coming over the ridge and even some split-flow at times, this will be a real pain forecasting showery periods
  2. But the next two weeks won’t feature a stormy & wet pattern in the Pacific Northwest, in fact most likely it’ll be a little drier than normal
  3. Cooler and drier air coming down from the north should give us sunny days at times (middle of next week)
  4. Drier air also means much cooler nights.  Those typical chilly October nights are on the way by next Tuesday…way down into the 40s in urban Portland and 30s outlying areas
  5. Hitting 80 in Portland again appears unlikely, although if the ridge edges closer with offshore flow it COULD happen again.

Showers arrive tomorrow midday and expect more light showers Saturday & Sunday.  ECMWF says less than 1/2″ rain the next 3 days, then we go dry after Monday.  That’s good, I can avoid watering the garden once again…

 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

21 Responses to Goodbye to 80 Degree Days

  1. MasterNate says:

    WTH is wrong with the radar? Again..

  2. Nahtalkin says:

    The poor, decent hard working folks in Puerto Rico, they never have had much wealth and then this horrific hurricane. How can we not extend help and compassion to our fellow countrymen and women? Our silly buffoon of a President says these folks just need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, what a piss poor excuse for a leader of the free world, I am so ashamed.

  3. Anonymous says:

    The top 3 warmest Summers in Salem have been in order 2015, 2017, and 2014. The last 6 Summers have all been way above average. My guess is that 2018 will be as well. Peace.

  4. W7ENK says:

    Forecast for total rainfall has been evaporating with pretty much every model run. What was supposed to be 2-3 inches for Portland metro over the next several days has basically turned into scattered showers accumulating to roughly a half an inch. Thunderstorm chances for over the weekend, initially pushed back to Monday, were completely rescinded last evening.

    This is a very frustrating time of year, from now through about mid-July…

    • Sprayandpay says:

      You can thank those squiggly white lines that grow thicker and thicker. No they are NOT contrails. Quite believing MSM garbage. It’s literally Mc Donalds at best and is not at all healthy on a daily basis.

    • Sprayandpay says:

      PS. I’ve seen many come from weird directions such as SE to NW and NE to SW and then the trails within 20 mins tops form the awful white haze that blocks the sunlight quite a bit and form those (X) patterns and a few half circles like they were drunk.

      In the Obama era when it was at it’s worse the metallic sprays often totally blocked the sun making it a dim halo and look like a dull overcast winter day. and actually lowered daytime high temps from reaching maximum potential but made nights warmer.

      This year the sprays have not been as bad until now and clear nights it has easily slipped into the upper 40s this year even in July on nights with no haze or whatever.

      I haven’t seen 40s at night in the summer in a LONG LONG time and is a very interesting feeling.

    • W7ENK says:

      Hi Kyle!

      Have a nice weekend. 🙂

    • Nahtalkin says:

      Excuse me dude, what is, is. so sorry your having more of the frustrating problems, so my advice is for you to chill out not blog so much, get out of mom’s house for some fresh air. And if you could talk to her in a mature kind way and maybe just maybe she would put in triple pane windows in your bedroom so the freeway noises are not so disturbing. Just hang in there and remember that what you resist will persist. God Bless and hope you find healing.

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, aren’t you a pleasant little thing… 😆

  5. Roland Derksen says:

    It climbed up to 83.8F here yesterday- but that’s not a record for the date: I saw it reach 84.9F on Sept.28, 2003. But that’s all over now.

  6. Nahtalkin says:

    About 15 years ago I had my first 70+ degree day in January, never happened again and not before to my recollection (which goes back to the ’50’s).

    • Mike says:

      I saw it once around 1985 while rebuilding a deck in Milwaukie. 3 days in a row working in my ‘T’ shirt owners and I realized we had better note the thermometer. One or two days it reached the 70 degree mark for about 15 mins. or so. I remember it was a very nice January overall.

  7. Jamie Van Zanten says:

    Thank you Mark for always mentioning to water kawn, garden extra. It is so helpful to me and my friends. I pass your email in.
    You are great!!! Thank you for all the great info every night. Grateful Jamie

  8. Paul D says:

    The next ten days look awesome!

  9. Mike says:

    Thanks Mark. Nice the way you give a perspective related to our current weather. It’s really cool and getting cooler. yay! So happy when I hear the rain is coming.

  10. Mark bergal says:

    I am always curious as to the why. Why do we have 15 more days above 80 now than 70 years ago? Was it just cooler back then or is it hotter Now? Was it due to the area, less developed back the or iis it just part of the climate change trend here

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Kind of a no brainer. Same reason the Arctic has less ice.
      Warming…is…happening… everywhere.

    • Nahtalkin says:

      “I never knew anybody . . . who found life simple. I think a life or a time looks simple when you leave out the details.”
      ― Ursula K. Le Guin, The Birthday of the World and Other Stories

  11. JERAT416 says:

    Great update! Summer is over!

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