Warm East Wind Returns, Without The Fire Smoke

7:30pm Tuesday

Today was a spectacular early Fall day with high temps right around 80 in the metro area

It was the warmest day in about a week and a half

Tomorrow will be much warmer since we’ll go from a northerly flow today to a pure easterly wind flow

This means a big jump in temps, not only here in the valleys but also along the coastline.  Models are forecasting a 3-4 millibar pressure gradient across the Cascades which should give us gusts 35-45 mph in the western Gorge.  That east wind at the beaches (for just one day!) should push temperatures up into the 78-88 degree range

A wind switch back to west or southwest Thursday drops temperatures 15-20 degrees that day.

Here in the metro area temperatures should rise a solid 4-6 degrees tomorrow plus another degree or two Thursday.  Of course that puts us in the mid-upper 80s.  I think it’s unlikely we hit 90 at PDX; it’s more likely that at least one of the official metro area stations hits 90 one of those days.  It’s always a tough call at the end of the warm season due to lingering overnight inversions.  Regardless, it’s going to be quite warm for a few hours each of the next two afternoons.

As for fire smoke, I took a close look at the high-res GOES-16 visible imagery and couldn’t find any smoke being put out by any fire in our region.  That said, the view is from 23,000 miles out in space and most likely there are smoldering spots with each fire.  This morning I smelled fire smoke at my home but skies/air remained clear otherwise.   As a result I think we’ll at least smell a bit of smoke in parts of the metro area tomorrow, but that should be it.  No dense haze or smoke this time around.

Enjoy the warm & sunny weather because it’s pretty obvious we’re headed into another cool & wet pattern.  Friday and Saturday sure don’t look like soakers, but a wetter southwesterly flow Sunday and Monday should give us quite a soaking.  Here’s the ECMWF rain forecast through next Monday afternoon:

Notice in this pattern (southwest flow) more rain can make it over the Cascades.  You might finally get your first fall soaking in central Oregon if you get lucky! Looking farther ahead here is the 2 week outlook from the ECMWF model, showing 24 hour rain totals.  Time is from left to right.   Left is now, right is two weeks from now.    Top half of the graphic consists of 51 horizontal lines…each one representing one of the ensemble member 24hr rainfall forecasts.  You can see just about all of them start off with rain later Friday, then a 2nd peak in rain next Monday, and a 3rd sometime later next week.  Big picture is that there is no obvious dry period after Thursday, but there may be some sort of break the middle of next week.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen





26 Responses to Warm East Wind Returns, Without The Fire Smoke

  1. Garron 1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport says:

    Sounds like the models, current, are actually drying away from the wetter solutions more than they were just 24 hours ago.. Less than~24 hours ago, were for 2-3 inches, now just .75 to .85 inches through Tuesday. Pattern changes can be stubborn some times! I’m guessing that we will have more dry than wet days through at least the next 18 days, and more days in the 70’s to go along with that.

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      Yep. It’s frustrating to watch for a rain lover like me, but at least there is no hot weather on the horizon. Seasonal temps with below average precipitation overall through the first half of October. The GEM is my one hope for some real rain.

  2. Roland Derksen says:

    Unless I get more than 0.96 inches of rain tomorrow and Saturday, my 2016-17 water year will finish 9th highest out of the past 43 years.(63.89 inches in total this time) The top wettest year for me is also 1996-97 with 76.38 inches.

  3. Jack says:

    Warm evening. Wind blowing at 7 to 11 mph with higher gusts, temps mid-70s and feeling warm. Nice evening for an outside evening dinner, camping, etc.

    Camas, 600 feet (180 meters) elevation.

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    Two volcanoes erupted today, Mexico’s Popocatepetl and Indonesia’s Sinabung. A third volcanoe Mt. Angung also in Indonesia could blow at any time. There are a lot of wild weather events and geological events happening. Not to mention our society with the threat of World War 3 and nuclear bombs. This exact senerio is right out of Revelation in the Bible.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      hmmmm..If you are superstitious that is..

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      I’m wondering, does the bible mention twitter? 😉

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      The end is near.

    • W7ENK says:


      How many times in my life have I heard “This is straight out of Book of Revelations! The Bible blah blah blah…”

      Look, I’ve survived a handful of comets, multiple Lunar (and now one total Solar) eclipses, countless blood red sunsets/sunrises, volcanic eruptions, one hurricane, several earthquakes, a few floods, bug infestations, sweeping illnesses, 12/21/2012, last Saturday, more than a dozen other apocalypses, and I think we’re up to three Raptures now… and guess what?

      I’m still here. And so are you!

      I guess we just weren’t worthy.

  5. Jason Hougak says:

    Pulled pump on beautiful day in Government Camp today for the Mt Hood Inn Best Western. Awesome day to work up there but the weather is melting that fresh snow cover. Looks like snowlevels drop again between 5-7K Friday through the extended. Bought some new skis and am excited about winter!

  6. Jake-(Gresham near Nadaka Nature Park) says:

    Aside from the highly polluted days we had from the smoke being an obvious cause of bad air quality. Collectively?

    This was the worst. The worst Summer. Usually by mid-July I can stop taking allergy medication. This year. It barely even working in combination with an air filter in my room. If tomorrow is indeed the last 80 degree day?

    I will not notice. Good riddance!

  7. Roland Derksen says:

    Up here the forecast beyond Friday seems to be backing away from a lot of rain. Instead a mix of sun and clouds with a 30%-60% chance of precipitation after Friday’s soaking. We’ll see how it works out…

  8. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Global cooling on the way!

    Mount Agung’s eruption would likely cause global temperatures to fall, a volcanology expert has warned.

    “Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines decreased global temperatures by half a degree Celcius for the following two years after it erupted,” she told nine.com.au.

    “That half a degree can affect absolutely everything.”

    The last time Agung erupted in 1963, the huge amounts of sulphur pumped into the atmosphere caused the world’s temperature to decrease by 0.1C to 0.14C.


  9. Nahtalkin says:

    I find it odd that it is impossible to make an accurate 7 or 12 day forecast this time of year yet some forecasters come right out and say “no more 80 degree high temps this year after Thursday”. I think it’s way too early to make this call. Time and time again I have seen 80 degree temperatures in October.

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      Long-term patterns are easier to forecast than day to day temperatures, cloud cover, wind speed, etc. At some point very soon, it takes a lot of conditions to come together just right to get us to 80 degrees. There is nothing indicating that the potential for that exists in the next couple of weeks. After tomorrow, see you in April, 80 degrees.

  10. W7ENK says:

    I was just gonna say, there must be a light Easterly breeze tonight. I-205 is very loud out my window, the rumbling is keeping me awake. 😦

  11. Paul D says:

    Looking forward to the nice days after the too hot days.

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