Back to Hot, Plus Humid This Week

10pm Sunday

Today was MUCH more pleasant with a relatively “chilly” start.  Many of us started way down in the 50s…ahh, nature’s air conditioning

PDX Observed Low Today

At the same time morning clouds covered much of the metro area.  At noon today it was only 74 degrees in Portland!  Yet we eventually made it up to 88 this afternoon.   So as you know we sure won’t break any hot streak here in Portland…this heat wave will go down as a somewhat typical heat wave, but with two VERY hot days right in the middle.  Down in Salem the 90 degree streak continues and the next two days should establish this hot spell as the longest in Salem’s history:

90 Degree Days Heat Salem

We sure did get a thicker marine layer today.  That kept temperatures down, but tomorrow that layer should be thinner under a building upper-level ridge.  There will be no offshore easterly flow this week, but the hot atmosphere overhead will remain with a weak onshore flow through Thursday.  That will keep those 100 degree temperatures away, but inject plenty of moisture for a more “humid experience” this week.  Dewpoints are in the lower 60s in the metro area this evening; unfortunately I think we’ll see lots of those 60-65 degree dewpoints through Thursday.  It won’t help that there will be lots of moisture coming in overhead as well.

Hot Headlines2

Looking farther ahead, it appears that for the first time in almost a month we have a chance for a cool/showery weather pattern.  Remember, I said CHANCE.  For days models have been telling us the ridging overhead will break down this weekend and beyond.  Note the big drop in 850mb temps on the ECMWF

ecmwf_ensemble_850

The blue/red lines are temperature in celsius at 5,000′.  Check out the return to normal temperatures by next Monday.  And there’s good agreement among a majority of the ensemble members that we’re turning a corner to cooler weather.

What about rain?  Here’s an interesting graphic from the GFS showing total rain accumulation through the 2 week period from each of its 21 ensemble members.  Note 12 of 21 (over half) produce measurable rain in Portland before eclipse day (21st)

gfs_ensrain

Before you panic and worry about that $500 you plunked down for one dusty campsite for one night in a field…keep in mind this is a “total” accumulation of rain through the two-week period.  A better view might be from the ECMWF 24-hr chart:

ecmwf_ensrain_sle_qpf24hr

This one shows all 51 ensemble members from that model.  Each member is a horizontal line again, but in this chart you only see 24 hour periods that contain rainfall.  Any color means at least .10″ rain in a 24 hour period.  This is for Salem as well, not Portland.  Now things don’t look so bad do they?  Just a chance for showers here and there.  The main message here?  Models are telling us NEXT week will be much cooler and a few of us could actually get some rain showers.

It’s still too far away (15 days) to get a good idea what might happen for eclipse day itself.  More on that later this week or next weekend.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen 

17 Responses to Back to Hot, Plus Humid This Week

  1. Anonymous says:

    Thank God for weather nerds…we need em!

  2. Paul D says:

    Who put that 75 on next Monday? Teasing me like that is just mean!

  3. JERAT416 says:

    Bright red ball in the sky tonight instead of the sun….. cool to see but this smoke can bite me.

  4. Wendy - Silverlake, WA says:

    What I’ve been seeing outside today seems more like smoke than clouds. Has the exact same look to it as last week. Did the wind shift again, or is it just a really strange looking cloud cover? Been completely socked in all day and usually with cloud cover we clear out pretty good being at the top of a hill.

    • muxpux (Longview) says:

      It’s smoke. It’s mixed a bit better throughout the atmosphere instead of a thick low layer so it’s really hazy looking.

      It’s a combo of the BC smoke, and the smoke from the Oregon fires.

      There’s no win. Lol

  5. Jason Hougak says:

    I just imagine all the pre-eclipse parties and people waking up too late and missing the whole event😆

  6. I live west of 101 Depoe Bay area and it’s cold as a stone pony here with thick marine layer continuing before the 11th hrs. Ahhh.

    • You can have it. 60 and overcast is fall weather, not summer weather, in my book. I think the Salish Sea (aka Puget Sound / Strait of Georgia) region has ideal summers — summer highs average in the low to mid 70s where I live. Just about ideal. Today’s 78 means it was a slightly warmer than normal day for me.

      Now if that smoke would just go away. It’s getting old, and provoking my allergies.

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    I’d rather have downpouring rain and miss the 2 minute eclipse. My plan to stay on the Whitewater Glacier on Mt. Jefferson has dwindled due to the Whitewater Fire.

    • you’d rather have something you can see just about anytime over something that’s once in most people’s lifetime?

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Jason obviously has never witnessed the awe. Let’s hope gets the chance this time!

    • Jason Hougak says:

      I was planning but there’s a fire that’s destroying that idea of seeing the eclipse. I agreee its a spectacular site but so is the Jefferson Wilderness when it’s not totally burned.

  8. Garron 1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport says:

    I just don’t understand the people that paid upwards of $4000 for a hotel room at the coast for the day before the eclipse just for a 80% chance of viewing marine clouds? Or the airplane eclipse experience? I mean, how does that work exactly? what if you got a seat on the side of the plane that doesn’t face the eclipse? Is it really worth trying to crane your head into that tiny little window to glimpse a view? I assume that you’d be paying a very $pecial rate for that guaranteed window view, then the price goes down from there, but still….

  9. Alohabb says:

    I just bet my silly sister who’s having a Eclipse party that after record days with no rain that the first cloudy rainfall day will be eclipse day. I will laugh my butt of if this happens…all the business closing , people taking vacation, worried about epic traffic …. personally I just don’t get it.

  10. JERAT416 says:

    I hope it’s cloudy in the valley for the eclipse. Let me be able to get to work in the Portland area. Let people flood Madras instead of Salem….

  11. Paul D says:

    I see low 80’s in the forecast!!! Hopefully they don’t disappear.

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