Happy Independence Day!

July 3, 2017

10pm Monday

The weather looks excellent for our nation’s big holiday!  A little on the warm side in the afternoon, then just right for fireworks

Independence Day Fireworks Forecast

I’ll be doing some emceeing out at the Corbett Fun 4th Festival after 5pm…look for the bright flag shirt!  Plus the only fireworks show east of I-205 in Multnomah County.  Let me tell you, conditions will be FAR better than 6 months ago in the same location!

Weaker onshore flow the next 3 days means warming temperatures as we stay in the “sweet spot” between a blazing hot upper-level ridge centered over Utah and a cool upper-level trough way offshore.

Jet Stream Forecast 2017

We will see just enough of nature’s air conditioning west of the Cascades (ocean air) to keep our high temperatures at or below 90 degrees…no heat wave for us.  But for you folks east of the Cascades?  This will be the hottest period so far this summer.

Looking farther ahead, we’re heading through our 3rd dry week with no rain in sight.  Relatively high heights (upper-level ridging) holds through the next 1-2 weeks.  So our stable summer weather pattern will continue as long as the strong ridge is sitting just to our east.  Notice the lack of rain on the European model ensemble forecasts for Salem.  Each horizontal line is one member.  Green says .10″ rain accumulation.  Only 2 of 51 members generate .10″ = most likely it’ll be dry or mainly dry for the next 2 weeks.

KSLE_2017070312_eps_precip_360

June just finished of course and it appears we’ve broken the string of 5 cool & wet months (December-April).  Both May and June were warmer than normal across most of the West, including Oregon.  Here’s the temperature anomaly for the past 60 days:

anomimage

Precipitation has turned around dramatically since the very wet winter and 1st half of spring.

precip

Only coastal Oregon and parts of Western Washington were around average, it’s been drier across the rest of our viewing area and Oregon.

That warm & dry pattern continues through early July…stay cool and keep watering your plants/lawns/trees!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen