4TH OF JULY: LOOKING DRY

Due to our mild & dry pattern, it appears the big holiday will be pretty reasonable this year.  Most likely high temperatures somewhere between 70-80 degrees, pretty normal for this time of year.

Mark IndependenceDayHistory

I remember sitting through some very chilly fireworks shows here in Northwest Oregon, but my 16-year-old son hasn’t seen a wet Independence Day.  You have to go all the way back to 2000 to find a wet one!

That’s especially strange considering that any one July 4th has a 24% chance of getting measurable rain in Portland.  And this one is always surprising…JULY 4TH HAS A HIGHER RAIN CHANCE THAN ANY OTHER JULY DAY!  It’s just a fluke of course, but bizarre that it happens to occur on a holiday.

You may remember the sweltering 4th just 2 years ago during the great heat wave of 2015.  Last year was a bit cool though.

Mark IndependenceDayHistory2

Regardless, we’re in pretty good shape this year!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

31 Responses to 4TH OF JULY: LOOKING DRY

  1. Roland Derksen says:

    I want to wish all my American KPTV weatherblog friends the best July 4th ever! The weather at least is co-operating, let’s see if the rest of life does as well.

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    Our nice weather pattern kicked in on June 17th this year. 85-92 for the next couple of weeks at least. No super hot weather in sight so most of us can enjoy the Summer. Looking to be the 6th consecutive year with at least 70 days of at least 80 degrees. 70 might be average now. 50 years ago it was 60 days over 80 in a Summer. Peace.

    • Gene says:

      Yes, the weather couldn’t be better for this time of year. Almost perfect 4th of July conditions, and overall, just a great summer pattern for getting outside and enjoying a wide range of activities.

  3. Here’s a topic to speculate on:

    If the Columbia flowed north into the Puget Sound, how different would Portland’s climate be?

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Huh?

    • Garron 1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport says:

      Do you mean, if there was no water feature, bridging cooler oceanic air into the metro area? Blockage from the morning cloud regime IMO, more like Salem, Corvallis and Eugene would be my “best guess”

    • muxpux (Longview) says:

      Yeah, the Columbia going into the ocean where it does, acts as a gorge to help funnel in marine air, like the gorge does in winter for Portland.

    • JERAT416 says:

      So no gorge either?

    • I mean, if at Longview, the river flowed north into the Puget Sound rather than turning towards the Pacific.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Well…you could take a boat right up to Seattle and avoid the freeway!

    • muxpux (Longview) says:

      I would love to have a program that would simulate weather, while being able to adjust the terrain and see its effects. That would be fun to play with.

    • If you get rid of the Columbia river and the gorge all together then our weather would be dramatically different than it is today. More of an extreme change In the winter since most of our cold weather events involve the gorge in one way or another.

    • muxpux (Longview) says:

      You’d keep the gorge. But you’d lose the “gorge” up here that connects the ocean to the valley. The “gap” to the coast would be puget sound and the I-5 corridor. So the coast range isn’t interrupted by the Columbia, and it heads straight north at Longview, instead of turning to the coast. Is it that hard to envision?

    • JohnD says:

      ANOTHER theoretical feature I have often speculated: How different our climate would be in the western valleys if the Coastal Range was just a bit higher–thus inhibiting the marine flow!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Portland would probably average slightly warmer in summer, like Salem or Eugene. Assuming the Coast Range is no higher than it is now, it wouldn’t be as warm as Roseburg though. In winter it wouldn’t make much difference I wouldn’t think.

    • How high would the Coast Range need to be to inhibit the marine flow?

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    nny at 4:00 PM. Next two weeks look perfect 80-95 and dry. We deserve this after last Winter. Peace

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Should be 80-85.

    • Garron 1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport says:

      I loved our winter, EXTREMELY rare for me to say that, but there was a lot of weather drama events, and the events actually paid in gold this year, instead of disappointment after disappointment in a normal winter, IMO. ALSO…JMO, I love this weather (CURRENTLY WE ARE IN) just as much as the highs and lows of model riding, AND 2
      of snow….
      really love this stuff though!

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    79 and su

  6. Roland Derksen says:

    I’m not an American, but for what it’s worth, the coldest (and wettest) July 4th, I recall happened in 1994: Heavy showers that day (about 0.58 inches for me) and a maximum of 60F. Granville Island market (a tourist trap in my town) reported flooding from a particularly intense thundershower.

  7. Jesse-SW Portland Suburbs says:

    This is the copy of a comment made by “wx_statman” on the Weather Forums, in regards to Mark’s comments about the record heat in Astoria on Saturday. Some interesting stuff here. It would be good to see you address the data “scrubbing” issue at some point in a blog post. Mark! I don’t know if you are aware of it.

    Looks like Mark Nelsen is going with the newly scrubbed numbers for Astoria (I don’t know whether he realizes it or not). The record books at Astoria and numerous other stations have been destroyed by the QC’ing process that NCEI implemented last year to U.S. weather data. NCEI is the official repository for U.S. weather data, and places like the NCDC, WRCC, Threadex and the Utah Climate Center draw from NCEI’s database of daily observations for official U.S. weather stations. As far as I know, in an effort to scrub erroneous readings, NCEI simply applied blanket statistical correlation formulas to the weather data. This process knocked out many of the “outliers” which in fact represented legitimate extreme events.

    For AST, the all-time record high of 100 on 7/11/1961 was scrubbed from the record books along with many other extreme maximum readings from the past (96 on 8/9/1981, 95 on 8/13/2002, 93 on 5/16/2008, 93 on 6/8/1955, etc).

    So this has led Mark Nelsen to say:

    The 93 at Astoria was the 4th warmest temperature on record out there. The all-time high at Astoria Airport is 98, set just last August. The 1st, 2nd, & 4th highest temperatures ever observed at AST have been set in the past 15 years. I think a coastal heat wave blog post is in order at some point…”Is Heat Becoming A More Regular Visitor to the Oregon Coast?”

    https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/

    As it turns out, nothing in that paragraph is accurate. It’s really unfortunate.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Thanks Jesse. Wish Mark would respond about this.

    • Garron 1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport says:

      Actually, Jesse, I thought Astoria HAD hit the 100 D/F mark myself, but it might be my old timers’ disease kicking in…

    • Garron 1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport says:

      As it turns out Jesse/Mark, the actual all time high was recorded in July 1942 for Astoria, of 101 D/F, a 99 also in 1942 was recorded, in June of the same year…WTG Jesse! nice catch

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      You and wx_statman are absolutely correct, Jesse. Especially for the July 11, 1961 record highs.
      What are the odds that AST, TMK, and ONP all fail quality control on the same day?

  8. Lee Wilson says:

    Well we plan to.cook fish in the bread machine using Solar Power.
    Go a head and laugh.but after 40 minutes the fish is moist and tender ..awesome..same goes chicken once cut in to strips..40 minutes..yum..or get some turkey burgers and place them in the machine and 40 minute later..yum..juicy turkey burgers..

    You can do a lot with a bread machine lol.

    The trick to home made bread and the meal.

    Start the bread in the morning when the sun is coming up oh around 6 am, then at 8 am the sun’s rays cranks on the juice and will cook the bread.

    After the bread is cooked, then you can make you meals..

    You can mix in some.veggies adding flavor to your meats…

    At any rate.. Call me crazy..but unless you try it..you won’t know ..hehe..happy 4rth.

  9. JERAT416 says:

    I’m good with average!

  10. Donaleen Kohn says:

    My first July 4th in Portland was 1995. I didn’t know July 4th could be so cold.

%d bloggers like this: