A Forecast Bust Today, More Showers Ahead

6pm Tuesday…

Well, we did hit 60 today and it sure did feel warmer.  That’s the positive news.  Of course we had off/on light showers the entire afternoon & evening in the metro area so that puts today’s report card in the BUST category.

To add to the cool/showery complaints, morning models came in much wetter for Wednesday, pushing a cold front right OVER western Oregon and Washington instead of lingering along the coastline.  The thinking has been (the past 2 days) we’d be in the warm air ahead of that front Wednesday, pushing our temps well into the 60s.  Instead, clouds and showers will sit right over us all day long.  Forget the 60s; we’ll only be in the 55-58 degree range tomorrow.  So it goes during this cool spring…

Speaking of…take a look at the 60 degree days through April 4th (today’s date) each of the past 10 springs.

MarkApril60DegreeDays

Yep, we’re back into the 2011-2012 routine.  We’re seeing a total lack of warm spells from February through early-mid April.  Notice I haven’t talked about upper-level ridging across the Pacific Northwest at all since last fall?

At least we have seen 6 days with very little rain; I was able to plant my onions and a few other cold-weather veggies.  The soil was just barely dry enough.  Glad I got that done before those showers coming in tomorrow.

This brings up the question “Does this mean the rest of spring will be wet?”.  A very good question.  Take a look at the 5 wettest March’s on record here in Portland, then what followed rain-wise in April and May:

 

MarkRain_MarchWet_April

That’s quite a mixed bag.  Some wet, some dry.  The last La Nina winter/early spring (2012) remained wet through the spring.  The 10 day GFS meteogram, remember it’s only one model run from one model, turns us wetter again this weekend and beyond.  No sign of a warm & dry regime through mid-month.

KPDX_2017040418_tx_240

Try to stay dry and don’t get too down about the rain.  Even though the natives are getting restless, I’m hoping they don’t need to sacrifice a local meteorologist…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

15 Responses to A Forecast Bust Today, More Showers Ahead

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    I worked on the well for Spruce Run Campground on the Nehalem River today. Rained steady all day. Forest was so lush and green and the river had a perfect color for Steelhead fishing if only our rivers had the runs of the past. Not a single fisherman spotted. Got to Manning and the precipitation ended and saw the valley stayed dry today. Can’t say how much I love my Grundens rain gear. I’ve had them since 2001 and they are hands down the best ever. The neoprene hand cuffs stop water from running down your arms when lifting pipe over your head. I guess that all those warm days of the past two winters has really allowed me to appreciate this weather. Snowlevel looks to stay between 5500-2500′ for the next week, skiing this weekend looks very winterlike 3000-2500′. Next week could be snowy working on a well for Mt. Hood Brewery in Govy.

  2. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    So, was today a bust of the bust? Zero rain and 63.

  3. 45 years ago today at this hour, didn’t realize we had just driven through the path of a tornado when we drove through the intersection of 4th Plain Blvd and NE 72nd ave here in Vancouver. Thought it was just a heavy hail shower with gusty winds. Still seems surreal to this day.

  4. Roland Derksen says:

    No 60-degree days here yet at my location. My record for the latest first 60 is on April 11th,ironically in 2003(which had a warm summer following) so I’m not ready yet to compare it to 2011, but we’ll see what happens.

  5. W7ENK says:

    Spring 2017 looks to be on par with 2011. Big shocker there…

    Let’s hope it doesn’t stay that way. 2011 and 2012 were probably the crappiest consecutive Summers of my conscious lifetime thus far. I don’t think my psyche can take another hit like that in such a short timeframe.

    • Jake-(Gresham near Nadaka Nature Park) says:

      Same here, I can handle a rainy Spring and Summer with sunny days in between. But 2011 and 2012 were just a constant rainy Spring with cloudy days upon cloudy days for Summer. That makes one feel like a blind cave fish (also known as the Mexican tetra). I believe it’s safe to say I’m upgrading the lighting if that happens in the home. Sigh.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_tetra

  6. Paul D says:

    You gotta have a forecast bust occasionally to keep things interesting.

    If you got it right 100% of the time you’d never get that radar you want!

  7. Patrick Timm says:

    Not so good this week for Washington spring break. People are leaving the beaches due to wind and rain. Bummer at least it won’t get nice next week when Washington students are back in school.

  8. Steve says:

    That is so funny. You are certainly forgiven. I am webfoot Oregonian. Steve. From canby

  9. Paul D says:

    Not complaining one bit. So glad it’s not a repeat of the past two years.

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    If the natives are getting restless then they ain’t really natives… more like the whiners are getting restless!

    • JERAT416 says:

      I know I’m as native as they come. I’ve lived here my whole life. I clearly remember the cold snap of 1989, the floods of 1996, the big snow of 2008, the super hot July 2009, the terrible commute of December 2009 I drove in, and of course the terrible commute of this last winter too. Thankfully, central and Eastern Oregon even got some rain this winter so that is very helpful. We will survive this time like always. There is nothing particularly odd going on anyhow. I’m always thankful we don’t have the double 90’s they get in the deep South in summer, nor the hurricanes, nor the huge tornadoes.

    • JJ78259 says:

      It is fun watching Oregon weather from a far. I put in 52 years of Native Activity looking out the window and watching it rain! It is sunny and 79 degrees today as a Texas Transplant. Should I hit the clubs or the Tennis Racquet today?

  11. Garron near Hillsboro airport says:

    I can’t imagine that this spring would be as stellar and warm as the last several. We were bound to make up for the last several warm springs and summers’. Can’t argue that mother nature was bound to balance things out, and hey at least we all got our snow fix in this winter.

    • JERAT416 says:

      Spring may not be warm and sunny but summer is certainly not doomed. I guess we could be thankful that we don’t need to blast AC before​ July

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