A Forecast Bust Today, More Showers Ahead

April 4, 2017

6pm Tuesday…

Well, we did hit 60 today and it sure did feel warmer.  That’s the positive news.  Of course we had off/on light showers the entire afternoon & evening in the metro area so that puts today’s report card in the BUST category.

To add to the cool/showery complaints, morning models came in much wetter for Wednesday, pushing a cold front right OVER western Oregon and Washington instead of lingering along the coastline.  The thinking has been (the past 2 days) we’d be in the warm air ahead of that front Wednesday, pushing our temps well into the 60s.  Instead, clouds and showers will sit right over us all day long.  Forget the 60s; we’ll only be in the 55-58 degree range tomorrow.  So it goes during this cool spring…

Speaking of…take a look at the 60 degree days through April 4th (today’s date) each of the past 10 springs.

MarkApril60DegreeDays

Yep, we’re back into the 2011-2012 routine.  We’re seeing a total lack of warm spells from February through early-mid April.  Notice I haven’t talked about upper-level ridging across the Pacific Northwest at all since last fall?

At least we have seen 6 days with very little rain; I was able to plant my onions and a few other cold-weather veggies.  The soil was just barely dry enough.  Glad I got that done before those showers coming in tomorrow.

This brings up the question “Does this mean the rest of spring will be wet?”.  A very good question.  Take a look at the 5 wettest March’s on record here in Portland, then what followed rain-wise in April and May:

 

MarkRain_MarchWet_April

That’s quite a mixed bag.  Some wet, some dry.  The last La Nina winter/early spring (2012) remained wet through the spring.  The 10 day GFS meteogram, remember it’s only one model run from one model, turns us wetter again this weekend and beyond.  No sign of a warm & dry regime through mid-month.

KPDX_2017040418_tx_240

Try to stay dry and don’t get too down about the rain.  Even though the natives are getting restless, I’m hoping they don’t need to sacrifice a local meteorologist…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen