The Next Week: Spring Temps Arrive

11pm Wednesday…

It has been chilly for 3 weeks west of the Cascades, and most of the past 3 months too.  Here in Portland we haven’t seen a normal or above normal high temperature since February 17th!  It appears that’s going to change during the next week.  So for the first time this year we have some warmer spring temperatures on the way and next week should definitely feel more like March should.  Why?  Remember that we’ve often been in an upper-level trough over the past few weeks.  That’s where the jet stream takes a dip and we are on the cold side of that jet.  But check out Sunday:

See how there is a ridge, or northward bulge in the jet over the West Coast?  That’s what you want to see in springtime to get us warmer than normal temps.  Models are in pretty good agreement that we’ll see this through much of next week.  Even late next week (Friday) you can see it’s just beginning to shift to the east.  These maps are from this evening’s ECMWF model run:

Take a look at the GEFS (GFS ensemble) forecast for Portland temperature anomaly (departure from normal)

Check out those above average temps through late week!  Then you see we likely turn cooler again.  So the next question is “how warm?”.  Well, first we need to hit 60.  So far we haven’t hit 60, but check out how many 60s we’ve seen the last few March

It’s time and I think it’s pretty likely we hit 60 at least once in the next week, maybe even 3 or 4 times if my numbers are conservative.  Check out the GEFS ensemble hi/low forecast temps again for Portland:

Pretty good agreement on lots of mid-upper 50s beginning Sunday, then you see the cooling coming beyond next Friday.  By the way, there is a good agreement with that downturn in temps again late next week.  Note the ECMWF 850mb ensemble temps going back down below normal after next Friday

To summarize

  • The real chilly weather is about to turn much warmer…for about a week, starting Friday.
  • Temperatures will likely hit 60, and if everything works out just right we could get up closer to 65 at some point.  Remember 56 is average for mid-March.
  • We see more breaks in the rain in the next 8 days.  It won’t be constantly wet.  
  • Specifically, Friday & Sunday may be mainly (or all) dry…plan your outdoor yard work or recreation on those days.

Don’t forget to turn your clock forward one hour Saturday night as we go into Daylight Saving Time.  Sunset Sunday evening will be at 7:13pm…there will be some light outside until almost 8pm.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


33 Responses to The Next Week: Spring Temps Arrive

  1. Lee Wilson says:

    Oh..and is there a way that we can be rid of daylight savings time…Do you think our new president will abolish that?

  2. Lee Wilson says:

    That wind we got went from chilly to nice an warm.
    Thankfully were not getting 80s as some neighbors to the east are getting. Or…Snow as other neighbors are getting.

    All I want is some nice sun shine…to come on out so I can mow the yard..and get ready to set up some more solar panels.

    We’re OK. We managed to eek out a 190 dollar credit.
    So we’re not sure how much our PUD will go down.

    Oh we stuck some plants in the dirt as well.
    Hmm some tomatoes, some corn some peppers and broccoli…
    Sure if T may he early but…’s worth a shot. Lol I got more in the trays that we can plant later.

  3. Roland Derksen says:

    Mild temperatures may be here, but so are the grey, rainy skies as well. Another dreary March happening : 3.32 inches in amount up to last night and a lot more to come this week. Sure wish I could see at least one more day like Friday was in the near future.

  4. ocpaul says:

    According to NOAA, the latest long range forecast has us ENSO neutral. It calls for above average temps in the 90 day. And, while it’s waaaay early, it calls for a mild La Nina for next winter. Averages being what they are, I doubt we’ll see this kind of winter again soon.
    But, maybe we can see some snow fun next winter. We just have to get this pesky spring/summer out of the way.

  5. Roland Derksen says:

    Yesterday certainly was a nice change; Had a maximum of 53F in the sunshine. Too bad it’s all going downhill today.

  6. JJ78259 says:

    Another fantastic day in Vegas today heading to the NASCAR race tomorrow. Nothing but sunshine and blue sky this morning!

  7. RomanAround says:

    Impressive radar image of the wall of rain moving over. Such precise cut off from dry to pouring rain. Almost like a wave of water washing over.

    • Registered Nerd says:

      Was thinking the same thing…. The good thing too is this is just a quick shot of moisture and then it gets nice and dry again. Not an endless atmospheric River…. Yesterday was such a nice change, I find myself needing a little more of that sun!

    • Registered Nerd says:

      Well… Maybe not so nice and dry… Looks like rain will be with us for the rest of the day and intermittently thereafter….Ah well, we’ll always have Friday in our memory.

  8. Marques says:

    Sooooo nice to be able to FINALLY shed the work-coat, hoody & cap/beanie.. it seemed like it took forever to get here, but yeah, I think it’s a pretty safe bet at this point to kiss this past winter bye-bye!!.. & good riddance!

  9. Windsday says:

    BTW: Who’s ready for the 7:30 darkness again?

    • Paul D says:

      I don’t really care when it’s dark or light, just quit changing the clocks!!!!!!!!

  10. Windsday says:

    “No chance of60s until Tuesday” Riiiiiiight! It’s 65 in the shade and almost 70F in the sun!

    We not only reached 60F but surpassed it!

    This is back to the same pattern we had in most of the fall which brought late warmth in November with unusual 65-70F readings as the mercury got stuck then a lot of humid weather For Oregon

  11. umpire says:

    Did a walk with Portland Parks and Recreation Senior program this morning in the Hillsdale/Healey Heights area. Was SO nice to have sun and warmer temps. We’ve had to cancel or change walks/hikes this winter due to the weather. Can’t wait to get to Forest Park in the next few days.

  12. Paul D says:

    Can we please quit messing with our clocks!! Stop the madness!!

    • MasterNate says:

      That would be so great! But very unlikely as we are still in the pre common sense era.

    • Windsday says:

      Up here even if we were standard time all summer long it would still be bright until 8 to 8:30 o clock and mornings would be brighter which farmers would love meaning less electric lights used.

      Getting dark at 8:30 is still pretty late even if it’s earlier then 9:30.

    • Windsday says:

      Oh I almost forgot. Who’s ready for it to be dark at 7:30 in the morning again? Get ready next week to waking up in the dark to go to work and using your headlamps to drive! Oh boy! 😦

      Daylight standard time this would not be a problem.

    • Paul D says:

      DST = daylight stupid time

    • Gene says:

      Quite a bit of whining for something that has been with us for decades. No one will be complaining about DST when we hit June-July, and we get those wonderful warm nights where it stays light until well past 9 p.m. This is a great bonus especially for those folks who get home from work at the dinner hour, and still have 3-4 hours of light left to go out and enjoy the outdoors.

  13. WEATHERDAN says:

    58 so far today with only .42 in the rain bucket. Much better than forecast. Peace.

  14. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “I wouldn’t walk out to the Sequim lighthouse tomorrow morning. It could be the last walk you take.”

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Some long, low lying sand spits up there for sure. Makes for some interesting geography.

  15. Roland Derksen says:

    Looking forward to the milder temperatures. Sure has been chilly this week. Not REALLY cold, but cool and moist. I hope we get some sun as well.

  16. Alohabb says:

    Headed to Vegas in a couple of weeks and Hawaii after for a nice 2 week vacation. Not waiting for the sun to shine here, gotta go elsewhere.

  17. Jason Hougak says:

    Definitely making up for the past horribly dry mild winters. Timberline had amazingly deep powder yesterday and as of 7 it’s still snowing. Their 2′ snowstake was at 16″ yesterday at 4 and now it’s at 23″. 190″ Base and it’s got to get mild for a week and then start building again.

    • Windsday says:

      Except it’s all melting now and if it’s all melted by May it will be all for nothing.

      We will be back to square 1 come Summertime as it will all be run off by then.

      Our snowpack needs to stay until May when it can be a gradual melting keeping pastures and live-stock healthy thru the summer where if it melts too fast/prematurely it will just add fuel for fire.

      Worse then having no snow most of the winter.

  18. JJ78259 says:

    Beautiful Morning in Las Vegas this morning. Nothing like sunshine to get your day going should be 80 degrees today! Perfect for this afternoon’s golf game!

  19. WEATHERDAN says:

    Yessssss!!!. Finally a break from all this cruddy cold and rain and snow that we have had since October. In all my life I have never seen a Winter like this one. Salem is now approaching 17 inches above normal for the water year. If It didn’t rain again until October we would still finish up the water year 5 inches above normal! Peace.

  20. WEATHERDAN says:


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