It has been chilly for 3 weeks west of the Cascades, and most of the past 3 months too. Here in Portland we haven’t seen a normal or above normal high temperature since February 17th! It appears that’s going to change during the next week. So for the first time this year we have some warmer spring temperatures on the way and next week should definitely feel more like March should. Why? Remember that we’ve often been in an upper-level trough over the past few weeks. That’s where the jet stream takes a dip and we are on the cold side of that jet. But check out Sunday:
See how there is a ridge, or northward bulge in the jet over the West Coast? That’s what you want to see in springtime to get us warmer than normal temps. Models are in pretty good agreement that we’ll see this through much of next week. Even late next week (Friday) you can see it’s just beginning to shift to the east. These maps are from this evening’s ECMWF model run:
Take a look at the GEFS (GFS ensemble) forecast for Portland temperature anomaly (departure from normal)
Check out those above average temps through late week! Then you see we likely turn cooler again. So the next question is “how warm?”. Well, first we need to hit 60. So far we haven’t hit 60, but check out how many 60s we’ve seen the last few March
It’s time and I think it’s pretty likely we hit 60 at least once in the next week, maybe even 3 or 4 times if my numbers are conservative. Check out the GEFS ensemble hi/low forecast temps again for Portland:
Pretty good agreement on lots of mid-upper 50s beginning Sunday, then you see the cooling coming beyond next Friday. By the way, there is a good agreement with that downturn in temps again late next week. Note the ECMWF 850mb ensemble temps going back down below normal after next Friday
- The real chilly weather is about to turn much warmer…for about a week, starting Friday.
- Temperatures will likely hit 60, and if everything works out just right we could get up closer to 65 at some point. Remember 56 is average for mid-March.
- We see more breaks in the rain in the next 8 days. It won’t be constantly wet.
- Specifically, Friday & Sunday may be mainly (or all) dry…plan your outdoor yard work or recreation on those days.
Don’t forget to turn your clock forward one hour Saturday night as we go into Daylight Saving Time. Sunset Sunday evening will be at 7:13pm…there will be some light outside until almost 8pm.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen