Who Gets Snow Next 2 Days

6pm Wednesday…

Today was day #1 of our low snow levels; and it went by somewhat uneventfully with just mixed showers popping up during the afternoon.  In some spots hail or graupel covered the ground.  Check out Corvallis earlier today from Katy Kelly

photo_katie_kelly_corvallis

We are under a cool northerly flow in the upper atmosphere with an upper-level ridge over southern Alaska and a trough right over us.  That pattern continues through Sunday/Monday.

marksat_sfc

So we have 4 more days to go in which it’ll be cold enough for snow to stick down to near sea level in the late night or early morning hours (coolest part of the day) IF moisture shows up at the same time.  That’s Thursday-Sunday.  So let’s take it day by day…

THURSDAY:  Looks just like today with a mainly dry morning, then afternoon showers pop up over the hills/mountains and drift out over the valleys.  Because just about all precipitation falls during the midday/afternoon, temperatures will be too warm for sticking snow below 1,000′.  Even at that elevation you’ll be lucky to get a dusting tomorrow afternoon.

SATURDAY:  Should be a dry day with a chilly start then mostly sunny afternoon.  No moisture for snow even though it’ll be cold enough early.

That leaves us with…

FRIDAY:  This day appears to hold the best chance for sticking snow to sea level, mainly the first half of the day (before noon).  That’s because that little “L” (low pressure center) on the satellite picture above will slide down the coastline through the day, picking up moisture and sending it inland over Western Washington and Oregon.  The ECMWF model (surprise!) has been showing this for two days, but other models have now come into agreement with the general plan.  I’m thinking that ANYONE west of the Cascades could see a dusting, but the best chance is north of Salem and west of I-5.  Actually the BEST chance at the lowest elevations may be up on the North Oregon coast where more moisture will be moving south.  Here’s what I’m using on-air:

bmac-snow_textpanel

Note the ECMWF and WRF-GFS models both hint at snow over the metro area

ecmwf_snowfridaypm

 

wrf_snow_satam

As of now it appears unlikely we’ll see sledding in the metro area Friday morning; however I bet all of us will see lots of snow in the air attempting to stick at times.  In this type of situation a mixing southerly wind often dashes our chance for sticking snow at the lowest elevations.   But in this case there will be very little southerly wind since the low is coming at us from the northwest and sliding by to the west.

Another low moves south on Sunday which COULD give us a Friday repeat.  But the atmosphere appears to be slightly warmer which may keep sticking snow up around 1,000′ and higher, or it may be just barely cold enough again…a very close call.  It is very interesting that 41 out of 51 ECMWF ensemble members produce at least 2″ of snow over the Portland area by Sunday afternoon, lending some credibility to the thought that we’ll get at least a little white at some point in the next 4 days.   That 2″ or more would include both Friday and/or Sunday snow combined.

Beyond Sunday, the chance for snow down to 1,000′ or lower goes away for at least a few days, or for good this season…we’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

22 Responses to Who Gets Snow Next 2 Days

  1. Snowed lightly during my run about 40 minutes ago. Now the sun is out. Clackamas 400-500 ft.

  2. Hal in Aims says:

    nice little snow shower the last 40 minutes or so…..all surfaces except the road are white…….trees are flocked….33…….

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    Nice weather today, dry. Only 41 at Noon but dry. Currently 13.96 inches of rain this month. I would be fine if we don’t hit 14 inches but that is unlikely. Peace.

    • JJ78259 says:

      I come home from a business trip to Houston and my whole family is laying around the pool in 90 degree weather, don’t they know it is February and it is still winter! Some People!

  4. Heather says:

    Anybody have the latest model runs? Just curios if anything has changed….

  5. Roland Derksen says:

    We have a good chance to see snow here overnight and then again late Saturday into Sunday. I don’t mind seeing it-one more time.

  6. GTS1K' says:

    I do….

  7. Jake-(Gresham near Nadaka Nature Park) says:

    One things for certain looking at the 06z is the Sound area of Washington is in trouble. PDX once again is the boarder area of all the moisture and temperatures.

    We may dodge this in good manner for those tired of Winter (but this could change quickly to more than just a snow shower or two). As a novice at this I can say today’s runs will show a lot going into this. No way we don’t have some commuting problems imo. Stay safe people!

  8. Registered Nerd says:

    Yah, this winter is how I remember feeling growing up about winter…Cabin Fever, ready for a little warmth, wanting to get to hiking the high country but no snow melt in sight…

    By this time, I still get excited at the potential for snow, but am ready to transition to spring. It’s the way winter should be I suppose. I’m thinking it may be a rude awakening for some who have just moved here in the last 3-4 years from sunnier locales (IE: CA, etc).

    I’m hoping we get one last burst of snow this weekend, then would like to pull the plug on winter, get some warmth, start the garden stuff, etc!

    • Spring can be cold and rainy. I’ve had to run the heat in June a number of years.

      Coming from the Rockies (and before then, the Midwest), I still think the winters here (meaning: anywhere in the lowlands west of the Cascades) are super-mild, even though I’ve lived in the Northwest for decades now. Part of it’s a promise I made to myself never to gripe about the winters here being cold once I started taking the mildness for granted.

    • Registered Nerd says:

      I’ve never lived in a colder clime, but I know our winters are wimpy compared to elsewhere. The thing is, with all the rain we’ve had, and then with the potential for a rainy cool spring, the effect is the same: a longing for warmth and sun. I kind of like it when it’s like that. The last few winters before this one, we had enough sun and mild temps mid winter and spring that I never felt that serious longing for summer.

    • JohnD says:

      Yeah all things are relative in weather and life. I don’t really like the term “mild” as even in our marine climate, we can and do have extremes–although, relatively speaking, even the extremes are typically “mild” as compared to the Mid-West or New England (where my wife is from), etc. Many would say that is a good thing–not “wimpy” per se.

  9. Jake-(Gresham near Nadaka Nature Park) says:

    Well if the NAM has it’s way the evening commute Friday is going to be a mess. This train ride has gotten interesting with the Euro’s support. Oh boi. Here we go.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      We had a heavy snowfall here on March 21st 2012. Over 6″! It was fun to watch but it absolutely crushed a bunch of shrubs and trees.
      However, the skiing was great for a couple days!

    • Jake-(Gresham near Nadaka Nature Park) says:

      Yeah I’m about to make a good cup of joe and wait for the next runs. This is what weather is all about for me. The open variabilities make it fun for me personally.

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    I love when a good flirting really pays off😆

  11. JohnD says:

    I guess bloggers must be pretty “wintered out” when Mark has rendered a fairly bullish forecast and there have been only 4 comments in 3 hours! Whatever happens, I’m in!

  12. Paul D says:

    Pile it on!!!

  13. Jerry says:

    So, here in the gorge, we’re good to go?

  14. Deer Is. at 750' says:

    I’m in. Sounds like I have a pretty good chance for another round of white stuff. Maybe an inch or two to treat my new puppy to.

  15. MasterNate says:

    I don’t care if its cold. I don’t care if it snows. Please don’t give me any more RAIN!!! Looking forward to some dryer weather anyways.

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