Things were working out just fine through about 7pm tonight.
- Lots of rain, mixed with snow at times in parts of the metro area with cold enough temps at the surface for snow (low-mid 30s)
- Heavy snow just west and north of the metro area. 3-5″ in Astoria, 8″ Clatskanie, 3-8″ Longview, & 18″ at Sunset Summit Rest Area.
- No issues traveling around most areas in the lowlands
- The low-level cool air actually moved FARTHER south than expected this afternoon; Eugene’s wind was north for a while.
Then things went wrong as that snow forecast train jumped the tracks…BUST! It’s painfully obvious (from my point of view) that models totally missed the above freezing air that remained overhead all the way through the evening. In the end things are turning out almost exactly like last night’s GFS and ECMWF model snow forecasts; little or nothing in the lowest elevations from the metro area south to Salem. Yeah, this one stings, like the lack of ice back in early December or was it early January? This is the 2nd event that has turned into at least a partial bust. But out of 7 difficult winter forecasts, maybe that’s not so bad in our climate.
We’ll be lucky to get a trace of snow in the next two hours as the back edge of the steady precipitation moves overhead. Most of us just stay wet between now and 5am.
If you want to see snow, pretty much your only hope is several bands of snow showers that move through the region around daybreak Monday. This will be similar to the very first snow shower event we saw on Monday, February 5th. Exciting to see, but won’t have much affect on the morning commute:
The rest of this week should be uneventful and we MIGHT get several days of dry weather starting next weekend. It’s still a week or so too early to break out of the winter inversion and see 55-65 degree weather, but we’re getting closer to that first stretch of “false spring”.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen