11pm Wednesday: NWS Drops Winter Storm Watch For Some

This evening the trend in models/observations continues to be the same:

  1. We don’t have a “storm” coming, but maybe 18 hours in which a mix of frozen precipitation may fall for most of us in the metro area
  2. Any snow will be brief and light late tomorrow afternoon/evening.  Your life should be affected all that much.

Since we’re getting closer to the event and models still have quite light precipitation forecast, I lowered the snow forecast slightly for the metro area:

marksnow_pdx_2periods

Due to the warming air overhead tomorrow evening and light precipitation, the NWS has converted the Winter Storm Watch to just a regular Winter Weather Advisory for all areas west of the Cascades away from the Gorge outflow zone (metro area).  For most of you this will be a brief freezing rain episode tomorrow evening through daybreak Friday, then you go above freezing:

markwarningswinter-wx2

 

marksnow_portlandoutlookpercentages2

I’m a bit concerned that temperatures are running relatively warm.  But, just like the last event (or was it two back?) the downsloping wind off the Cascades may be adding a little bit of “warming”.   Still, temperatures in the mid/upper 20s at Hood River with easterly is a bit warmer than we typically see for freezing conditions with ice/snow storms in Portland.  Another reason I’m thinking this isn’t going to be that big of a deal for areas west of the Cascades.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

16 Responses to 11pm Wednesday: NWS Drops Winter Storm Watch For Some

  1. Roland Derksen says:

    A forecast of 1 or 2 inches here for tomorrow, but I think it might end up like January 6th (the last time we saw snow here). Just a trace on the ground that time. But who knows?

  2. JohnD says:

    Current dew points must be way lower than air temps, so we should be good for some evaporational cooling–right? Providing we do get any steady precip later on today. After the upper atmosphere warms, it seems to me that we aren’t in line for much freezing rain. Temperatures are warmer in the current pattern than they were a couple of weeks ago and we missed it then–in the Central City, that is.

    I will be happy with a modest snow shower to cap off a great season for us! Hoping so.

    • Andrew says:

      Dp’s are in the single digits which sets us up for a roughly 9 degree drop IF we see steady precip and that’s a big IF

  3. Andrew Bartholomew says:

    All indications are pointing to a non-event. However, it’s worth noting that our big storm in January featured a similarly meager precipitation forecast. All that way up to the onset of falling snow, I recall some models predicting only a dusting, while others topped out around 4-5 inches. The average model totals gave us around 2-3 inches. This is clearly not going to be a repeat, but predicting precip totals is clearly not an exact science. The bigger question for me involves temperatures. It just doesn’t seem cold enough, which leads me to suspect tomorrow morning will be a cold rain for much of the area, similar to the last two ice forecasts. Widespread ice events are incredibly rare for Portland. I’m all for preparing for the worst, but it takes a perfect set of circumstances to produce a true city-wide ice event.

    • runrain says:

      NWS says its warmer because the east winds are coming over the top of the Cascades and warming the west side. They are saying the winds will be more gap oriented tomorrow, which could cause the temps to fall below freezing tonight and tomorrow morning when the precip arrives.

  4. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    It is not going to snow.

  5. Andrew says:

    Heavy push of precip already moving onshore….

    • marinersfan85 says:

      There is nothing heavy about that precip that will dry out as it moves into the valley. Its gonna take a while to saturate the atmosphere.

  6. pappoose in scappoose says:

    …Highest wind gust reports through 5 am Thursday…

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=PNS&sid=PQR&version=0

  7. Anonymous says:

    Beware of the wet bulb

  8. W7ENK says:

    I’ll tell ya one thing, that wind is freakin’ COLD this morning!!

  9. marinersfan85 says:

    Models looks dryer this morning than they did last night.

  10. JJ78259 says:

    It was 80 yesterday in San Antonio now I find out 6 more weeks of this winter weather, wow I will Take It!

  11. Alohabb says:

    Feeling like a non event, with little impact depending on location. I’m good with that cause I got stuff to do!

  12. muxpux (Longview) says:

    One thing memorable, if I am remembering right, is this winter hasn’t had any of those “snow in the air, but not sticking” events. Maybe this will be it. Seems like each storm has brought some accumulation that stuck around for a bit. I recall in past years some events where we seemed to be oh so close but just not quite. Maybe this is the one.

  13. john.fairplay says:

    Wow, what a crazy 24 hours of forecasting. Going to be interesting to see if we get anything at all by the time we get to Friday.

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