Confidence has grown that we’ll see at the least a coating of white (1″) in most of the metro area Tuesday night and Wednesday and possibly as much as 4″.
All evening models are in and they all show something similar.
- The main precipitation shield from the storm moving through southern Oregon tomorrow doesn’t make it to the metro area.
- Instead we get a widespread area of light snow that develops tomorrow evening through much of Wednesday over much of NW Oregon, including the metro area and Salem/Albany. This is generated by moisture lifting up under an upper-level low. The low sits over us through much of Wednesday
The WRF-GFS, NAM, GFS, & ECMWF all show the same general idea. They also generally show heaviest totals west metro as opposed to east. ECMWF wasn’t as particular though showing that east-west divide. Check out the precipitation forecast for the 24 hours ending Wednesday at 4pm:
And the accompanying snow forecast, noting that in the first 6+ hours it might be too warm for sticking snow in Salem/Albany:
So the 1-4″ forecast seems good for now, at least until the 12z runs come in. I’ll be blogging again in the morning once I wake up and get going.
For now I think a major point is that we DO NOT EXPECT issues for the evening commute Tuesday.
This all happens later in the evening and into Wednesday. Obviously if we do get the snow then Wednesday is a different story.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen