3pm: Forecast Changes A Bit

Well, there always has to be some sort of twist & turn to the weather drama right?  We’ve got one now.

First, the initial part of this storm has worked out great:  Trace to 2″ snowfall in the metro area.  We’ve seen that, with heaviest totals south and west as expected.  But now the change…

It’s pretty obvious looking at satellite/radar & short-term models that we’re going to see far less precipitation in the next 12 hours than we have been anticipating.

What does that mean?  There may not be much of anything falling out of the sky between 4pm this afternoon and 8am Sunday…mostly likely just scattered light freezing rain showers.  This is very good news and means we may avoid a really bad ice storm and instead just get light accumulations of the glaze ice overnight.

Take a look at the latest HRRR model for 4pm and again at 10pm:

hrrr_4pm

hrr_10pm

There ARE scattered showers around, but just not a lot of precipitation in general.  I still expect streets to further ice up during the night.

Then as the cold front (overhead) approaches mid-morning Sunday, the steady freezing rain picks up.  It may even be heavy at times.  I still expect temperatures to remain below freezing through the daylight hours Sunday.  Here is the precipitation forecast from the ECMWF from 4pm today to 4pm tomorrow, the time in which we expect it to be all freezing rain, it’s estimating about 1/2″, enough to cause plenty of trouble, but definitely not a severe ice storm:

ecmwf_precip_24_portland_7

Here’s our updated forecast for the metro area…notice the lighter ice glazing.  That’s VERY good news!

marksnow_otherareas

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

92 Responses to 3pm: Forecast Changes A Bit

  1. Dona says:

    Why doesn’t Mark Nelson mention the Longview/Kelso area. Did we or someone do something to upset him?
    Andy will mention us (thank you Andy) but Mark rarely does and it’s very frustrating. We are closer to the Portland area than Seattle and I personally would appreciate it if we were mentioned and not blocked on the screen.
    Thank you very much,
    -D

  2. Lee Wilson says:

    I am looking forward to seeing some sun on Wednesday and Thursday. All be it if is cder.

    Looks like in the 10 day forecast we are warming up.

  3. How come there is no NW Weather Service warning for anywhere west of the Cascades. Is the ice storm off? Currently 32 here in Aloha at 4am so not too optimistick that highs will be below freezing to cause any ice buildup tomorrow. Maybe closer to the gorge but I think WA County will warm up quickly tomorrow unless the gorge winds increase here dramatically well prior to the time the heavy precipitation arrives.

  4. Sdeh Rot says:

    I have used this blog as a resource to help track the weather in addition to the various forecasts available. It is very helpful to me in planning my activities during inclement weather. Thank you to all who contribute.

  5. esmewwax says:

    10:50 PM Saturday— Does anyone know if it is icing up around Troutdale or into Corbett? Thanks!

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