Well, there always has to be some sort of twist & turn to the weather drama right? We’ve got one now.
First, the initial part of this storm has worked out great: Trace to 2″ snowfall in the metro area. We’ve seen that, with heaviest totals south and west as expected. But now the change…
It’s pretty obvious looking at satellite/radar & short-term models that we’re going to see far less precipitation in the next 12 hours than we have been anticipating.
What does that mean? There may not be much of anything falling out of the sky between 4pm this afternoon and 8am Sunday…mostly likely just scattered light freezing rain showers. This is very good news and means we may avoid a really bad ice storm and instead just get light accumulations of the glaze ice overnight.
Take a look at the latest HRRR model for 4pm and again at 10pm:
There ARE scattered showers around, but just not a lot of precipitation in general. I still expect streets to further ice up during the night.
Then as the cold front (overhead) approaches mid-morning Sunday, the steady freezing rain picks up. It may even be heavy at times. I still expect temperatures to remain below freezing through the daylight hours Sunday. Here is the precipitation forecast from the ECMWF from 4pm today to 4pm tomorrow, the time in which we expect it to be all freezing rain, it’s estimating about 1/2″, enough to cause plenty of trouble, but definitely not a severe ice storm:
Here’s our updated forecast for the metro area…notice the lighter ice glazing. That’s VERY good news!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen