9:30pm: Looking Wetter & More Damaging

(All forecast points are still valid from this afternoon’s posting down below)

All the evening models are in, except the ECMWF.

They all show an ominous trend with the precipitation…wetter Saturday night and Sunday.  Our RPM is often a bit too wet, but you get the point with the total forecast of more than 1″ of liquid water ending Sunday at 4pm.

rpm_12km_precip_nwor

Remember that I think we’ll be BELOW FREEZING through the daylight hours Sunday.  This would say we get a widespread 1″ of glaze ice on metro area trees & powerlines.  Very bad.  Other evening models look similar:

NAM-MM5: .90″
WRF-GFS: 1.00″
NAM: 1.30″

If this is the case then that means a good chunk of the metro area could see a devastating ice storm Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.  Hmmm, I might have to take advantage of “Casa-KPTV” this weekend…

Two other things going on tonight that reinforce my belief that we’re locked in sub-freezing air all through Sunday.

  1. No evening model pushes in southerly wind or gets rid of the east wind until around sunset Sunday at the earliest, as a cold front passes by overhead.
  2. The airmass flowing through the Gorge is ALMOST as cold as the January 2004 event.  Down to 24 at PDX and TTD, and 18-20 at Corbett.  This is BEFORE we get a drop in temps from evaporational cooling.  It’s pretty obvious we’ll stay closer to 25 through most of tomorrow at PDX.  Brrrr!

Speaking of the wind, it is RAGING out there in the Gorge.  Gusts 60-70 mph in the Corbett area with windchill beginning to drop below zero.  Hold on!  You’ve got just 48 hours to go until it goes calm.  But it’s going to be a very long 48 hours.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

73 Responses to 9:30pm: Looking Wetter & More Damaging

  1. Lee Wilson says:

    12:55 light snow started.
    Castle Rock ,Washington
    Elevation ..sad to say I don’t know it.
    31
    Pressure 29.62 { either a dot or dust) and falling

    Humidity 75%
    Winds.0 but westerly.

  2. West Linn 500' says:

    Occasional gusts, and light snow – just starting to stick. Still in the ‘pretty’ phase.

  3. Ash Qelon says:

    BRACE FOR IMPACT—-10:10 AM, its here!
    Mall205-Gateway area.
    Ice pellets.

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